The Sri Lankan Government has taken a tactful decision to avoid a geopolitical diplomatic crisis resulting from pressures – usually from India and more recently from the US and Japan – due to the arrival of Chinese research ships to Sri Lankan ports.

It has been decided to have a one-year moratorium in allowing foreign ships to conduct research in Sri Lankan waters.

Foreign Minister Ali Sabry told the media last week that the decision would come into effect from January 2024 and that the Government had notified the countries concerned. He added that the moratorium had been announced with the aim of undertaking some capacity development to facilitate Sri Lanka’s participation as an equal partner in exploration activities carried out by foreign vessels in our waters. 

The Government’s decision came in the wake of China’s request for permission for another of its research ships to arrive at the Port of Colombo to carry out research in Sri Lankan waters over the next few months.

Despite India’s objections, the Chinese vessel Shi Yan 6 arrived in the Colombo Port in the latter part of last October to conduct surveys along the western coast of SriLanka with the participation of the National Aquatic Resources Research and Development Agency (NARA) and the Ruhuna University.

Another ship on the horizon

It is worth noting that before even two months have passed, China has requested permission for the arrival of a new ship. This time, it has sought permission not only from Sri Lanka but also from the Maldivian Government for the Xiang Yang Hong 3 vessel to carry out deep-sea exploration in the South Indian Ocean from 5 January 2024 to late May. The ship, which is currently off the coast of Xiamen in the South China Sea, was scheduled to pass through the Strait of Malacca, subject to approval from both countries. 

This request has come from China in the backdrop of a pro-China Government recently coming into power in the Maldives. New President Mohamed Muizzu, immediately after taking office last month, asked New Delhi to withdraw Indian troops from his country. He had promised his countrymen at the recent Presidential Election that he would send the Indian troops back.

A review and refocus of outgoing President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih’s administration’s agreements with other countries, which have been deemed intrusive of the Maldives’ independence and sovereignty, was a pledge by President Muizzu detailed in the ‘Week 14’ or first 100 days manifesto.

Former President Solih’s Government signed a Hydrography Agreement with India in June 2019. The new President has now announced his withdrawal from the agreement. In the event of withdrawal from the agreement, six months’ notice must be given. According to the notification, the agreement is due to expire on 4 June 2024. If the agreement is not cancelled, it will automatically extend for five years.

China has asked the Maldivian Government to allow its research ship into the Maldives amid the possibility of a diplomatic spat between New Delhi and Malé. The important question is, what decision will the Maldives take after the Sri Lankan Government’s announcement of a one-year moratorium on granting permits to foreign research vessels?

India has already asked Sri Lanka and the Maldives not to allow the Xiang Yang Hong 3, saying that the research carried out by Chinese vessels in the Indian Ocean is aimed at future military operations. China is yet to respond to the Sri Lankan Government’s decision.

New Delhi said that when the Yuan Wang 5 ship arrived at the Hambantota Port in August 2022 and the Shi Yan 6 ship arrived at the Colombo Port in October this year, they would pose a threat to India’s security because of their intelligence-gathering capabilities.

But China, which said its ships were engaged in oceanographic research and did not in any way pose a threat to the security of any country, had strongly expressed concern that it was wrong for a third country’s concerns to influence its bilateral engagements with Sri Lanka. 

Catch-22

Sri Lanka is actually forced to adopt an approach that does not embarrass either India or China in the simmering disputes over the visits of Chinese research ships.

The Government said that during the days when the previous two Chinese ships were docked at Sri Lankan ports, they stipulated that no research activity could be carried out in Sri Lankan waters without the presence of the NARA. But what is the guarantee that the Chinese ships did not carry out any research respecting Sri Lanka’s conditions?

It is a complicated matter for Sri Lanka to allow a Chinese research vessel again within a very short period of time after Chinese survey vessels have already arrived at Sri Lankan ports despite Indian objections. The pressure that could have come from India may have been very severe this time.

The Sri Lankan Government may have felt that China was putting pressure on it by frequently requesting permission for research vessels amid the intensification of geopolitical rivalry between the superpowers.

Sri Lanka has been forced to find a way out of these problems for the time being, resulting in a one-year moratorium on the granting of permission to foreign research vessels.

Sri Lanka has so far not taken any decision that could make China uncomfortable just because India is applying pressure. But there is no doubt that Sri Lanka’s current decision will definitely cause great discomfort to China. 

At the same time, Sri Lanka may have also understood the need not to antagonise any major country in dealing with issues of geopolitical importance as national elections are to be held next year.

Geopolitical competition

Meanwhile, some international political observers, who suspect that India’s concerns about its security in the face of the visits of Chinese ships to Sri Lankan ports are overblown, say that China does not need to send surveillance ships to Sri Lanka to know where India has deployed its strategic weapons and that China’s satellite technology has grown tremendously. 

There is a widespread perception in southern Sri Lanka that India is expecting Colombo’s actions to be in exchange for an emergency loan given last year when the island nation faced the worst economic crisis in its history.

Despite several instances in the past where Sri Lanka has not respected New Delhi’s concerns on geopolitical issues, India has often not been harsh with Sri Lanka. India needs to ensure that Sri Lanka does not surrender completely to China. 

In any case, Sri Lanka will have to do a tightrope walk in the geopolitical competition between Asia’s two big powers. The rivalry for dominance in the Indian Ocean is intensifying as China has now started calling the Indian Ocean the ‘China-Indian Ocean Region’ (CIOR).

Senior Indian journalist and seasoned political analyst based in Colombo, P.K. Balachandran wrote an article in this regard in NewsIn.Asia last week.

“In opposition to the traditional practice of using the term ‘Indian Ocean’ for the stretching from Bay of Bengal to Antarctica over 9,600 km on the North-South axis and from Southern Africa to Australia over 7,600 km on the East-West axis, China has begun using the term ‘China-Indian Ocean Region’ (CIOR).

“The term ‘China-Indian Ocean Region’ was used in many places in an official document relating to a recent international conference on the Blue Economy of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). The conference which was on ‘Blue Economy to Build Together a Marine Community with a Shared Future’ was held in Kunming, in the Yunnan Province of China on 7 and 8 December.

“According to a participant in the conference, the Chinese appeared to be against the identification of the Indian Ocean exclusively with India, hence the redesignation of IOR as ‘China-Indian Ocean Region’ so that China too has a place in it.

“Participants at the conference from the region appeared to endorse the Chinese view in this matter, apparently because they too felt the identification of the ocean with India alone gave the Indians a sense of ownership of the ocean and contributed to New Delhi’s bid to dominate it,” Balachandran wrote.

As the Indian Ocean becomes a competitive region for world powers, it is necessary for Sri Lanka to maintain a sensible foreign policy without being dragged into a dangerous geopolitical rivalry.

(The writer is a senior journalist based in Colombo)