- Energy Minister hints of possible power disruptions in coming months
- Govt. admits fuel shipment delays disrupting supply timelines
- PUCSL flags drop in Norochcholai output due to low-quality coal
- Experts warn SL heading towards August–September power crunch
- Opposition blames coal mismanagement for looming power crisis
Sri Lanka’s energy sector is facing uncertainty as concerns intensify over coal procurement irregularities, fuel supply disruptions linked to escalating tensions in the Middle East, and operational setbacks at key power plants, raising the risk of a potential power crisis in the coming months.
Compounding these pressures, scientists have warned of a possible El Niño weather pattern, which could trigger severe drought conditions and reduce water reserves critical for hydropower generation.
Warnings of possible power cuts have also gained traction across political platforms, in Parliament, and in public discourse in recent weeks.
These concerns are magnified by long-standing trust gaps between the public and the State, especially given experiences with electricity supply over the last decade.
Procurement concerns and allegations
Former Minister of Power and Energy Patali Champika Ranawaka has alleged serious lapses in the Government’s coal procurement process, claiming that delays in calling tenders and subsequent decisions have jeopardised the country’s energy security. His allegations have been denied by Government officials.
According to Ranawaka, the coal tender that should have been issued in March has been delayed, creating conditions for an avoidable crisis. He said that although no emergency situation existed at the time, a Cabinet paper approved on 26 January had enabled coal procurement under emergency procedures.
A tender had been subsequently called on 2 March and awarded on 16 March to a higher-priced bidder, replacing a long-term tender valued at $ 98.5 per MT with one priced at $ 143 per MT.
Ranawaka also pointed to inconsistencies in the tender process, noting that another tender called on 17 March had been cancelled within 24 hours. He warned that such actions undermined international confidence and reflected a lack of a coherent procurement strategy.
The former Minister further alleged that the ongoing process could facilitate excessive profit margins in coal imports, cautioning that the situation could escalate into both a power and fuel crisis if not addressed.
Similar concerns have been echoed by Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa and the Frontline Socialist Party (FSP).
FSP Education Secretary Pubudu Jayagoda, who has been a vocal critic of the manner in which the tender had been awarded, warned that mismanagement in the coal sector could lead to either electricity tariff increases or power cuts in the coming months. He cautioned that if delays persisted, a shortage of coal was inevitable, particularly given constraints in unloading shipments within limited seasonal windows.
Jayagoda also raised concerns over supply shortfalls, noting that although authorities had indicated a requirement for 38 coal shipments, significantly fewer had been received so far. He warned that reliance on emergency procurement alone would not be sufficient to bridge the gap.
He further cautioned that reduced rainfall and coal shortages would necessitate greater reliance on fuel-based power generation, increasing costs that are likely to be passed on to consumers. According to him, electricity tariffs could rise by around 25% by July or August, alongside the possibility of power cuts.
Fuel supply disruptions and logistical challenges
In response to the growing concerns about the matter, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake said that three fuel shipments scheduled for Sri Lanka had been delayed, affecting planned supply timelines.
Speaking at a special media briefing on 17 March, he said that two long-term tenders for crude oil shipments totalling 90,000 MT would not be fulfilled on schedule, while a shipment expected through a private sector supplier had also been delayed. He warned that even a single delayed shipment could disrupt the entire supply management system.
In response, the Government has moved to award new fuel tenders and is exploring options to secure supplies through diplomatic channels, including assistance from partner countries.
The President also noted that while 13 coal shipments had already arrived, challenges remained regarding the arrival of additional vessels. Cabinet approval has been granted to procure five more shipments under an expedited process.
Delivering a special statement in Parliament on 20 March, the President provided an update on fuel orders and expected arrival dates. Based on the tender opened on 17 March, a diesel shipment is scheduled to arrive on 6 or 7 April, followed by petrol on 16 or 17 April, furnace oil on 12 or 13 April, and Jet A-1 fuel on 10 or 11 April.
Meanwhile, Energy Minister Kumara Jayakody acknowledged constraints in fuel reserves, stating that Sri Lanka currently had storage capacity sufficient for approximately 22 days. He said that steps were underway to expand storage capacity to 45 days and confirmed that fuel orders had been secured through August, while cautioning that logistical challenges persisted.
“We have fuel, we have dollars, but we do not have vessels to bring it here,” he said, citing rising insurance costs and reluctance among shipping operators to transport cargo amid global uncertainties.
“Our Government’s management has ensured that not even a minute or an hour of power cuts has been imposed so far. Of course, there is a cost to that, which is why a government exists.
However, there may come a time when power cuts become unavoidable. We are making every possible effort to provide relief to the public and to ensure that industries and all sectors continue to function normally.
“If we had acted as the Opposition suggests, power cuts would have been imposed earlier this month. We are thinking beyond that, with the people and industries in mind. However, we cannot plan these matters months in advance,” he said in Parliament.
In response to reports about the situation at the Norochcholai power plant, Cabinet Spokesperson Minister Nalinda Jayatissa said that its generation had dropped by between 132 and 170 MW from its 810 MW capacity. He noted that the Government was re-investigating reports regarding coal quality.
Regarding coal shipments, the Minister said that approximately 13 more vessels were expected within the next month to ensure continued operations. While shipments should ideally be completed before 20 April, ahead of monsoon conditions, unloading has historically continued into mid-June when necessary.
He added that the Government was closely monitoring global market fluctuations, noting: “Prices in the global market are currently fluctuating rapidly and rising to levels much higher than during normal periods.”
Jayatissa stressed that the priority remained ensuring an uninterrupted electricity supply, even if it required shifting to diesel-powered generation.
Power shortage risks
The Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) has warned that the use of substandard coal is significantly affecting generation capacity at the Lakvijaya Power Plant in Norochcholai.
Based on Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) data, each unit of the plant has recorded reduced output due to the lower calorific value of recently supplied coal. While each unit previously generated around 300 MW, output has declined to between 257 and 292 MW.
Coal consumption has also increased, from approximately 109 MT per hour to as much as 117 MT per hour, indicating reduced efficiency. This has resulted in higher operational costs, increased fly ash emissions, and greater wear on equipment.
The PUCSL estimates that the first nine shipments from the current supplier have resulted in financial losses of approximately Rs. 8.5 billion.
The regulator has further warned that delays in unloading shipments before rough sea conditions in April–May could disrupt the supply chain until December, with available stocks potentially lasting only until August or early September.
The PUCSL has identified several high-risk periods during 2026, particularly during scheduled maintenance outages of major power plants.
The risk of shortages increases if peak demand exceeds projected thresholds in April, June, and July, especially if additional unplanned outages occur. Planned maintenance at the Lakvijaya and Kelanitissa plants is expected to further reduce generation capacity.
Despite these warnings, the Ministry of Energy has rejected claims that power cuts are imminent, stating that the Norochcholai plant is operating normally and that coal supplies remain stable.
According to the ministry, 22 out of 36 coal shipments have already been unloaded and assurances have been received that the remaining shipments will arrive without interruption. It also stated that contingency plans are in place and that sufficient fuel oil stocks are available until the end of April.
‘Perfect storm’
Energy analyst Dr. Aruna Kulatunga warned that Sri Lanka was approaching a critical juncture in its energy sector, with multiple vulnerabilities converging into what he described as a “perfect storm” of mismanagement, logistical failures, and resource scarcity.
According to Dr. Kulatunga, the country is facing a “double whammy” driven by disruptions in coal supply, the absence of viable backup energy systems, and an impending water shortage, factors that could trigger significant power disruptions by late 2026.
The most immediate concern stems from a breakdown in coal procurement and delivery schedules, compounded by seasonal constraints. “We have a limited window of opportunity to unload the coal; we can only unload when there are no monsoons,” Dr. Kulatunga said.
He noted that at least eight coal shipments had already been delayed, placing additional pressure on already strained reserves.
The situation is further aggravated by declining coal quality, which is accelerating consumption rates. “Because of the lower quality of the coal, we need more coal and therefore we are putting more coal in the turbines and kind of burning it faster,” he explained.
As a result, Sri Lanka is likely to deplete its coal reserves much earlier than expected. “We will probably run out of coal by August or September,” he warned.
Despite long-standing concerns over energy security, Dr. Kulatunga highlighted a failure to establish alternative energy systems or adequate contingency plans. While solar energy has been promoted as a solution, its limitations during night-time peak demand have not been addressed through storage infrastructure.
Efforts to introduce battery storage have been repeatedly delayed. According to Dr. Kulatunga, proposals dating back to 2019 have failed to materialise, while more recent initiatives, including a 100 MW storage project have stalled. “As of now, work has not been started and the whole thing came to a kind of natural death,” he said, pointing to systemic inefficiencies and bureaucratic inertia.
The outlook is further complicated by the anticipated impact of El Niño, which is expected to significantly reduce hydropower generation.
Hydropower typically accounts for roughly one-third of peak electricity demand. However, Dr. Kulatunga warned that reservoir levels could fall to critical levels by the time coal stocks were depleted. “We will be out of water by that time; August–September is when the issue is going to be prominent,” he opined.
This convergence of depleted coal reserves and reduced hydropower capacity is expected to create a severe supply gap.
At the same time, the country’s reliance on thermal power as a fallback option is becoming increasingly unsustainable. “The biggest problem there is that we are running out of diesel and heavy fuel oil. By the end of this month, the whole supply will be finished,” Dr. Kulatunga said.
With uncertainty surrounding future fuel shipments and price stability, the risks to the power sector are intensifying.
Dr. Kulatunga warned that the simultaneous failure of coal supply, hydropower limitations, and fuel shortages could lead to an unprecedented energy crisis. He emphasised that the absence of long-term planning and delayed policy decisions had left Sri Lanka’s energy system highly vulnerable, with the most critical period expected between August and September.
This is not the first time Sri Lanka is facing this situation. Proponents of diversifying Sri Lanka’s energy supply have long advocated for the need to push towards more renewable energy and introduce storage battery systems as an alternative which could help Sri Lanka be less vulnerable to such crises.
Systemic, individual preparedness vital
National Chamber of Commerce Renewable Energy Council member Eng. Parakrama Jayasinghe has raised concerns over the recent restructuring of the CEB into six separate entities, questioning whether institutional knowledge and operational experience will be effectively retained to prevent future power disruptions.
The restructuring, which took effect on 9 March, comes amid growing warnings from the PUCSL over the risk of power cuts linked to the use of low-quality coal.
Against this backdrop, Jayasinghe cautioned that the situation required both systemic and individual preparedness. “It is prudent to consider how each of us could plan to minimise the possible impact and be ready to face the inevitable,” he said.
As a primary mitigation strategy, Jayasinghe proposed the adoption of domestic solar photovoltaic (PV) systems combined with battery storage. Such systems would allow higher-end consumers to operate independently of the national grid during disruptions.
He noted that these users could function in an “off-grid mode, without exports to the grid at any time,” thereby insulating themselves from outages while easing pressure on the grid.
Importantly, this approach could also reduce peak-time electricity demand, which Jayasinghe said may help eliminate reliance on costly oil-based power generation. However, he pointed out that significant economic constraints limited the widespread adoption of such systems. At present, he noted, these solutions were “limited mainly to domestic consumers and to those consuming over 300 units per month to be financially feasible”.
He attributed this to policy-related cost burdens, particularly import taxes on battery systems, noting: “Retrogressive policies by the authorities, who charge some 46% at the point of import of deep-cycle batteries, remain a major barrier.” Batteries constitute a significant portion of the overall system cost.
Jayasinghe argued that revising these policies could play a crucial role in strengthening national energy resilience. “If the Government recognises the value of removing the excessive levies charged at the point of import of batteries, the investment threshold would reduce significantly,” he said.
He illustrated the potential impact of such a shift, noting that if 25,000 consumers were to remove 5 kW each from the grid during peak hours, the cumulative reduction would amount to 125 MW. “This would be more than adequate to ward off a power cut,” he said.
Jayasinghe described the transition of high-end consumers to self-generation as a “great national service” that could stabilise the broader electricity system. By reducing overall generation costs, he said, the CEB would be better positioned to maintain affordability for lower-income consumers.
He also challenged prevailing assumptions about subsidies, arguing that the “concept of subsidising low-end consumers is a myth,” as their electricity demand was largely met through low-cost hydropower.
With global energy markets remaining volatile amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices, Jayasinghe urged those with the financial capacity to take proactive steps. “Protect yourselves against the now seemingly inevitable power cuts,” he said.
Despite multiple attempts to obtain information from the successors to the CEB regarding the concerns about the risk of power outages, officials of the newly-formed companies kept passing the ball between the new entities and did not respond by the time of going to print.