•  Effects to last until Feb. 2027
• 40% probability of strengthening by November

The Meteorology Department said that Sri Lanka could experience reduced rainfall and possible drought conditions during the months of July and  August, as the warming El Niño  climate phenomenon is likely to develop. The Met department warned that if an El Niño  develops, rainfall is expected to decrease significantly, particularly during the aforementioned months, increasing the risk of drought conditions across the country while El Niño ’s impact on Sri Lanka could last until February 2027.

The Acting Director General of the Department, Ajith Wijemanna further noted that El Niño  typically lasts between nine - 12 months. As a result, if an El Niño  develops this year (2026), its effects could persist in Sri Lanka until February 2027, he said. He also stated that the possibility of the phenomenon strengthening into a strong El Niño  by November, December, and January is also higher, with forecasts indicating a probability of nearly 40%.

“However, if an El Niño  occurs, we need to manage the health sector, the energy sector, as well as irrigation, agriculture, water resource management, and so on,” Wijemanna said.