This image illustrates the northern part of the Indian ocean where two distinctive sea areas – the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal (BoB), that primarily shape the regional and global posture.

Sri Lanka as an island State stands at what is termed as Laccadive Sea which stands as an interface of these two sea areas. 

Although appears to be seamless, the water body does have distinctive differences from the oceanographic point of view and geo-political point of view. The terrorist attack on a remote tourist destination in Pahalagam in Jammu and Kashmir on 22nd April, claiming 26 innocent lives, and its fall out may be contested in Arabian Sea bringing regional and perhaps global interests than the decades-old Ino-Pak border skirmishes over the land.

Aftermath of the terrorist attack, which surely was a result of security lapses in Jammu and Kashmir as a whole, both India and Pakistan initiated several steps that trigger the fears of escalating

tensions, as belligerent shows signs of flexing naval power at sea. Already Pakistan airspace is closed for Indian registered aircraft and when tracking the air movements through couple of web-based platforms, it is clear that further curtailment as a result of each other’s action to influence each other, will be having a global effect. 

For example, in 1982, when the British Royal Navy task force set sail to the remote south Atlantic Island of Falklands, the British Government enforced a 200 nautical mile ‘total exclusion zone’ around the Task Force. Thankfully, there were hardly any flights in those skies as the area was remote and at the end of the South American continent and no commercial flights had any planned routes over those waters. 

However, in the Arabian Sea, it is a totally different scenario as the airspace above the Arabian Sea is used by thousands of long-haul flights connecting Australia, far-east, south-east and short-haul flights from India, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives. In any future at-sea conflict, managing and regulating the airspace will be a mandatory requirement, and as international airspace, it may succumb to the wishes of regional and global powers.

This development necessitates today when reports of the Indian Carrier Battle Group led by INS Vikramadithya sail to the centre of the Arabian Sea, the true destination of the CBG may be different. Irrespective of belligerent wishes to actively engage in combat or make presence as show-of-power, the procedural formalities will have to be adopted in preparation for active engagements. From Pakistan’s point of view, the already issued NOTAM of missile firing stands to evoke at short notice at any time. This is the reason why interested individuals also can now track and monitor the movements of the capital warships through numerous space sources who provide real-time, near real-time images on payment basis.

Global shipping will be the hard-hit should naval escalations take place between India and Pakistan. The Arabian Sea, unlike the BoB, is an internationally used sea area where merchant shipping from cargo to containers, tankers to and from the Gulf keeping the energy routes intact and livelihood of many fisherfolk depended. The fact that there are issues towards the Bab-Al-Mandeb in Gulf of Yemen and Strait of Hormuz in the Arabian gulf does not console the seafarer from having another added tension in the Arabian Sea. Should that happen it is the regional import-export, energy outflow to the region and beyond, and indirectly the global commerce that takes a hit or runs with heightened risks. 

When container ship Ever Given (IMO 9811000) broached on both sides crossing and blocking the Suez happened in March 2021 Sri Lankan ports; more especially Colombo experienced a surge of transhipment, storage, and congestion. 

Ironically as per the writer’s knowledge the Port Authorities nor the DG Shipping conducted a full-scale assessment based on the cost of losses (or gains) through a statistical analysis. Such is a need today, as we are under IMF supervision and having statistical-based analysis sure to boost our credibility in the global arena. Today, Sri Lanka is not having the confidence nor the credibility in the eyes of many; from donors to allies and the region, because the way the Governments work is not policy based. A good example of this loss of credibility is the way both present and previous Governments handled the Marine Science Research, rather than focusing on core of national interests, both Governments sought refuge in shying away from addressing the matter, showcasing to the world that we are yet a pressure-based government not a policy-based governance. 

Any conflict at sea in today’s technological developments will be swift and whoever initiates will be having the upper hand. The responder by the time reciprocated would likely come under international pressure and mediation. This takes completely a different natation

over land engagements and these on-land conflicts likely to be prolonged and tit-for tat focusing on economic targets. Over land engagements leave less room for international mediation whereas the at sea engagements take a different posture. 

In the Arabian Sea, when everyone’s energy routes are jeopardised and the world's third largest economy is affected by import and export, the mediation will be equally swift and prompt.

The undersea domain of the Arabian Sea is another highly contested sea among all the submarine operators of the world. These deployments, undertaken to fulfil the national interests of the flag states; from USA’s interests in Yemen (Houthis) to Persian Gulf, from China’s exploratory sailing, from UK’s deployments to save their seat at the security council, France’s Indian ocean interests to more homely interests of both India and Pakistan, the underwater domain will be the first to deployed, remain silent and strike first should that become necessary. Each underwater activity will have repercussions on the surface and would lead to more concerns. It is hard to even imagine where such under-water triggered incident might have ended up given the complexities of stakeholders operating in this sea area. This leads to the point where Sri Lanka should engage with her BoB neighbourhood to keep the BoB exclusive to the neighbourhood and prevent BoB becoming another international sea. 

Once again, maritime literacy matters to understand these broad, bird-eye pictures of such affairs, which is needed for sound Governance. 

Looking more closely at the South Asian region, when the two big powers are the belligerent nations, there is very little the other members can do, except Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka is likely to be the best mediator among the membership to intervene to prevent escalations and will not be the sole mediator from the global perspective as both the USA and Russia are likely to restrain the Governments to think broadly. In that kind of a scenario, what matters for Sri Lanka is to have the personalities that are acceptable to both belligerents identified and kept ready. We cherished a similar feast in 1971 and during the period Colombo-New Delhi were bound by personal charisma of the head of the States, but today we have lost that leverage. And these can not be developed or groomed overnight, as these are trust issues; men or women with long-standing personal charisma to mediate for matters in the neighbourhood.

There is much dependence on India and Pakistan for Sri Lanka; from workforce to trade, economies to companionship, thus Sri Lanka does not have a choice other than to engage both countries from the beginning not just after the first shot is fired at sea. Pakistan on one hand has been the long and trusted ally for Sri Lanka to finish the three-decades of separatist terrorism, whilst India being the big neighbour in capacity and economic wise, has been there with this island nation through thick and thin. And for India, in the south Asian landscape, Sri Lanka remains the only trusted partner and least of troubles in the southern part of the Indian subcontinent compared to its northern, western, and eastern.

Under these developments Sri Lanka needs to exercise caution in use of language in official communications with regards to the brewing conflict between India and Pakistan. For example, Indian media in their usual ‘war-cry’ points out how different western media agencies have used the terminology from militant to freedom fighters! Sri Lanka underwent a similar period not so long ago and our separatist terrorists were at one point of time in history were freedom fighters to the Indian media. What these unexpected, isolated developments in today’s complex posture demonstrate is the need to be flexible to secure our own national interests; by wording and by action.

The writer is confident that both India and Pakistan would not resort to nuclear exchanges given the fact that both Governments have shown sanity and restraint so far. However, the looming ‘war-cry’ induced by the media on both sides is an alarming indication where public perception matters in today’s national mindset. Obviously for India, this is a time Hinduism and national unity be highlighted as a whole-of-India view as it was Hindu’s that were targeted. Such meet the wishes of promoters of greater Bharat and Hindutva initiatives whilst developments domestically in the form of WAQF and Delimitation was a concern for national unity. For Pakistan, the stigma of sponsoring terrorism is hard to be de-associate with despite recent domestic conflicts showcase the dogma the Pakistan Government is having in curbing the terrorism within its own soil. The land-locked Jammu and Kashmir has demonstrated that such a State can influence maritime interests of even maritime rich Gujarat whose industries from Ports to Factories will be the biggest loser in an all-out war with Pakistan. Being the CM of Gujarat earlier, the PM Modi will be and hope to be the ‘wise owl’ on India’s side to limit the present tensions and normalise the Arabian Sea.

(The writer was the Chief of Staff and Chief Hydrographer of the Navy and the Joint Chief Hydrographer to the Government. He is an International Consultant for Undersea Cables for the United Nations)

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The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect those of this publication