• Govt. committees prepare for possible water, electricity, food supply pressures
• Existing budget allocations to fund initial response, with emergency financing available

Sri Lanka is preparing for a very strong El Niño event between October and December, with meteorologists warning of changing rainfall patterns, higher temperatures, and possible drought and flooding, while the Government’s response remains dependent on existing budgetary allocations and periodic assessments.

According to an assessment issued by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on 9 July, there is an 81% probability that El Niño conditions currently intensifying in the Pacific Ocean will develop into a very strong event during the final quarter of the year.

Department of Meteorology Duty Meteorologist Malith Fernando told The Sunday Morning that only three El Niño events of comparable intensity had been recorded between 1950 and 2025. He said there was also a strong likelihood that the prevailing conditions would persist into the first quarter of 2027.

“Historical data on comparable El Niño events between 1950 and 2025 indicate a slight reduction in rainfall and a moderate increase in temperatures during July and August. A significant increase in rainfall may occur during October and November, followed by decreased rainfall from January to around April and a considerable rise in temperatures during March and April,” Fernando said.

He explained that the same El Niño event could produce contrasting effects at different stages because it interacted differently with Sri Lanka’s southwest monsoon, northeast monsoon, and inter-monsoon wind patterns.

“Therefore, decreased rainfall can be expected during July and August, followed by increased rainfall in October and November and another decline during the first quarter of 2027. Historical data support these projections,” he said. 

In June, the Government established a Special Cabinet Subcommittee and an Officials’ Committee to coordinate Sri Lanka’s national response to the anticipated El Niño conditions.

The committees have been tasked with preparing short-, medium-, and long-term plans to address possible water, electricity, and food shortages, coordinating operations among relevant State agencies, and raising public awareness to minimise disaster risks. 

The ministerial subcommittee is chaired by Environment Minister Dammika Patabendi and includes Agriculture Minister K.D. Lalkantha; Plantation and Community Infrastructure Minister Samantha Viddyarathna; Ports, Civil Aviation, and Energy Minister Anura Karunathilaka; Trade, Commerce, Food Security, and Cooperative Development Minister Wasantha Samarasinghe; and Housing, Construction, and Water Supply Minister Susil Ranasinghe.

The Officials’ Committee, chaired by the Secretary to the President, comprises secretaries of key ministries and the Directors General of Irrigation, Agriculture, Wildlife Conservation, Meteorology, and Disaster Management. 

Representatives of the Mahaweli Authority and the heads of the National Water Supply and Drainage Board (NWSDB), the National Disaster Relief Services Centre, and Electricity Generation Lanka Ltd. are also included. 

Speaking to The Sunday Morning, Patabendi said that the country was expecting drier-than-usual conditions until August, followed by an extended period of increased monsoon rainfall from September. 

“However, based on the water levels recorded at our last meeting, we can manage energy generation, irrigation, and drinking water requirements even without additional rainfall,” he said.

Patabendi stated that the Government was also preparing for possible floods and other disasters resulting from excessive rainfall later in the year.

“We are currently working with the budgets already allocated. However, if an emergency arises, we can obtain additional funds,” he said.

Addressing possible health risks, Patabendi said that high temperatures could particularly affect older people and young children. He said discussions had already begun with the Health Ministry on introducing a public awareness programme.

He noted that dengue cases typically increased between May and July before declining with drier weather.

“However, if a situation arises due to these El Niño-related weather changes, we are prepared to intervene through the committee,” he said.

Meanwhile, Minister Ranasinghe said that the Department of Meteorology reviewed global El Niño data monthly, with the committee adjusting its local response plans accordingly. The committee is scheduled to meet every two to three weeks, with its next meeting due to be held the following Monday.

According to Ranasinghe, reservoirs managed by the Irrigation Department have approximately 150,000 acre-feet of water remaining. This water can be redirected for other purposes once the current Yala cultivation season concludes, with water releases for the season scheduled to end by 15 August.

“We believe the water available during July and August can be managed carefully to meet current requirements. However, temperatures may increase in certain areas. If water shortages occur, local authorities and the water supply authorities have programmes in place to intervene,” he said.