• Mediation efforts give fillip to Pak-US ties; India in damage-control mode
• Sonik-Sonik, Abu Hind and mastermind 
• Moderate Sumanthiran embraces ex-militants for votes
• Charge sheets with Cabinet portfolio intact.

The West Asian crisis is redrawing the diplomatic arena in Asia with Pakistan rebranding itself from security liability to diplomatic facilitator between the US and Iran, and India recalibrating cautiously and reactively. American President Donald Trump’s high risk adventure in the Middle East (ME) has pushed Washington policymakers to look into increasingly transactional ad hoc decisions favouring immediacy over long-term partnerships.

In the fog of war that now engulfs West Asia, an unexpected actor has seized the diplomatic spotlight: Pakistan. As tensions between US and Iran intensify, Islamabad has positioned itself boldly, and some would say opportunistically as a mediator. The more striking reality however is not Pakistan’s rise, but India’s conspicuous absence.

For India, the challenge is existential in strategic terms. In recent years, New Delhi, moved towards strengthening relations not only with the US but also with Israel, signaling a strategic shift in foreign policy. Now, with Islamabad, playing a major role as a mediator in the ME conflict, India feels that it cannot remain a passive power in crises that directly affect its interests. But, at the same time, it is reluctant to be an active diplomatic player.

Pakistan’s mediation may or may not yield peace. But, it has already yielded visibility, relevance, and leverage. India, meanwhile, faces a quieter but more consequential question: In a rapidly shifting geopolitical theatre, is it content to be a moral voice — or does it aspire to be a decisive actor?

Whether these mediation efforts are substantive or symbolic is almost beside the point. Optics matter in geopolitics — and for now, Pakistan owns the optics.

For decades, India has projected itself as a rising global power, a “net security provider” and a credible voice of the Global South. Yet, in the most volatile international crisis of 2026, New Delhi finds itself watching from the sidelines.

Against this backdrop, conversations between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump take on added significance. The two Leaders have a history of divergence, particularly over mediation narratives. 

With Pakistan gaining visibility in Washington’s diplomatic calculus, New Delhi’s engagement with the White House appears increasingly geared toward damage control, ensuring that India is not strategically sidelined in a region critical to its energy security and diaspora interests.

Obviously, Islamabad’s motivations are that of a survivalist. Amid economic fragility and regional instability, Pakistan is leveraging mediation as currency to gain favour in Washington, reassure Gulf partners, and reassert relevance in global diplomacy. Even if Tehran publicly denies formal participation in such mediation frameworks, the mere perception of Pakistan as an intermediary enhances its geopolitical capital. 

Pakistani defence analysts confirmed the mediatory role was facilitated by the Army’s Chief of Staff and Chief of Defence Forces, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir Ahmed Shah. Shah has cultivated a visible international profile since Pakistan’s brief military confrontation with India last year (2025). It is understood that he has a close working relationship with Trump. Trump publicly praised Shah as his favourite Field Marshal.

Pakistan shares a large border with Iran, has experience working with the US military, and defence pacts with Saudi Arabia and China. 

Pakistan also offered Islamabad as a neutral venue for face-to-face negotiations between the Trump administration and Iran’s leadership. If Islamabad becomes the venue for peace talks, it would mark a reinvention of Pakistan’s strategic standing, transforming it from a State often viewed as a security liability into a diplomatic convenor at the centre of global crisis management.

The move to facilitate talks is driven less by grand geopolitical ambition than by stark economic and security imperatives. Pakistan is navigating a precarious economic recovery under stringent International Monetary Fund conditions. The escalation of hostilities involving Iran has triggered sharp spikes in oil prices and deepened energy insecurity across Asia, disproportionately affecting Pakistan’s fragile economy.

Immediately after the Pakistani intervention, Iran agreed to allow 10 to 20 oil shipments to Pakistan via the Strait of Hormuz. This will ease Pakistan’s oil crisis.

Pakistan’s internal sectarian composition is also a sensitive issue. With an estimated Shia population ranging between 15 and 20 per cent of its over 240 million population, the largest community outside Iran, Islamabad remains acutely sensitive to developments in Tehran.

Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Muhammad Ishaq Dar acknowledged that indirect communication channels were indeed active with Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt. 

Easter Sunday bombing mastermind Zahran and pseudonyms Sonik-Sonik and Abu Hind

Pivuthuru Hela Urumaya Leader, attorney Udaya Gammanpila’s much-hyped event on Tuesday (31), did not bring out new revelations, but only a repetition of the evidence based conclusion that the mastermind was none other than the Leader of the extremist group National Thowheeth Jama'ath (NTJ), Zahran Hashim. Zahran was the main ideological leader and operational planner and he himself carried out one of the suicide bombings at the Shangri-La Hotel in Colombo. 

This was confirmed by the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) after conducting a thorough investigation. The FBI has formally identified Hashim as the mastermind behind Sri Lanka’s 2019 Easter Sunday terror attacks, according to court filings and investigative findings. An FBI Special Agent stated in an affidavit submitted to a US District Court that Hashim orchestrated the coordinated suicide bombings that targeted churches and luxury hotels on 21 April 2019. 

The near-simultaneous attacks killed more than 260 people and injured over 500, including foreign nationals, in one of the deadliest terror incidents in Sri Lanka’s history. 

Investigations revealed that Hashim was not only the ideological leader but also directly involved in the operation, carrying out a suicide attack himself. Authorities say the plot was executed locally but inspired by the extremist ideology of the Islamic State (IS). 

The FBI’s findings, emerging from years of international investigation, reinforce earlier intelligence assessments that placed Hashim at the centre of the deadly conspiracy, even as debates continue within Sri Lanka over wider accountability and possible additional actors.

It was also revealed the conspiracy had external links. The attacks were inspired and later claimed by the IS. While IS did not directly plan every detail, investigations found links, guidance, and ideological backing from the group. Other key operatives were two brothers who financed and participated in the attacks, Ilham Ibrahim and Inshaf Ahmed Ibrahim. Several other NTJ members acted as suicide bombers targeting churches and hotels. 

As analyst Mohan Samaranayake and a former Navy Spokesperson confirmed, Hashim ran the operation but NTJ was infiltrated by a Sri Lankan intelligence agent using pseudonyms Sonik-Sonik and Indian intelligence, presumably the Research and Analysis Wing, using the name Abu Hind.

Moderate Sumanthiran embraces ex-militants for votes

The General Secretary of the Illankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK), President’s Counsel Mathiaparanan Abraham Sumanthiran made a surprise announcement that former combatants who had sacrificed their lives, education, and families for a political cause were the most qualified to join his Party. During a meeting with former Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam combatants in Kilinochchi, Sumanthiran said that those who had “considered their lives insignificant” and were prepared to give their “life, body and soul” for a goal possessed the highest qualification for membership.

Sumanthiran was considered a moderate by the Sinhala and Muslim parties in the South and many peace-lovers thought that he could be the best person to deal with because of his hitherto image of being a moderate politician.

The ITAK, founded in 1949, was built on the premise that Tamil-speaking people in Sri Lanka constitute a distinct nation entitled to self-determination under international law. Founder-Leader Samuel James Veluppillai Chelvanayakam, came to be known as “Thanthai” (Father) for advancing the idea that Tamil-speaking people in Sri Lanka are a distinct nation with a right to self-determination, Sumanthiran said.

Most analysts believe that it is imperative for Sumanthiran to take a hardline approach to retain his position in the ITAK as he faces growing challenges from those who openly support ex-militant groups in the Party. Votes are more important than pragmatic moderation, one critic said.

Cabinet full tank, public running on empty

In a country where accountability is often treated like a power cut — briefly acknowledged and quickly forgotten — the latest policy to retain despite the change of Government is when a Cabinet Minister is facing corruption charges, he is “innocent until proven guilty.”

Energy Minister Kumara Jayakody was freshly upgraded from “allegedly corrupt” to “officially charged in court.” But, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna/National People’s Power reassured the nation that there is absolutely no connection between his legal troubles and midnight fuel and gas price hikes. “Pure coincidence,” was the opinion of his cohort in office, who enjoy the perks like unlimited fuel allowances and zero moral mileage.

Citizens, meanwhile, woke up to find petrol prices soaring faster than the Minister’s legal fees. Gas and petrol have now become luxury items, joining the ranks of imported cheese and political integrity. “We used to check the fuel gauge. Now, we check the court reports,” quipped a three-wheeler driver who displayed a popular sticker “Api Anurata” at the Presidential Election.

At media briefings, spokespersons have rushed to clarify that the Minister continues in his post under the sacred principle of “innocent until proven inconvenient.” They emphasised that removing him would disrupt stability, specifically, the stability of certain financial pipelines that appear to function far more efficiently than the national grid.

In a bold policy move, the Energy Ministry has also introduced a new pricing formula: Cost plus Corruption premium + Legal defense adjustment. Officials insist that this ensures “transparency” as citizens can now clearly see exactly how much extra they are paying for governance that burns through both fuel and credibility.

Opposition parties have, as expected, issued strongly worded statements, held press conferences, and then quietly returned to their routine of strategic disunity. Analysts suggest that if outrage could be converted into energy, Sri Lanka would have solved its power crisis decades ago.

In a touching display of resilience, the public continues to queue, complain, and cope. After all, in a system where Ministers charged in court still hold office, perhaps it is only fitting that the people pay for both the fuel they use and the losses due to low quality coal. 

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect those of this publication