El Niño is officially here. In recent weeks, Sri Lanka has been witnessing a growing number of reports and warnings regarding the occurrence of El Niño and its possible impact on the country. However, the question is whether the impact is likely to be as severe as portrayed, and if so, whether Sri Lanka’s agricultural sector is prepared to face the challenge.
El Niño is one phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a naturally occurring atmospheric and oceanic phenomenon that develops over the Pacific Ocean. It occurs when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific become warmer than usual, influencing normal atmospheric circulation and weather patterns across different parts of the world. El Niño events typically occur at intervals ranging from two to seven years.
According to the latest ENSO outlook issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is an 80% probability of El Niño conditions developing during the June–August period. Current forecasts indicate that these conditions are likely to continue at least until November, with a 90% or higher probability of persistence thereafter.
While uncertainty remains regarding the eventual strength of the event and the timing of its peak intensity, most climate models indicate that the developing El Niño is likely to reach at least moderate strength and could potentially become a strong event.
Govt. response
Speaking to The Sunday Morning, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Livestock Namal Karunaratne noted that several discussions were ongoing regarding an El Niño occurrence, alongside the subsequent drought and heavy rainfall conditions that could harm cultivation.
“We are currently managing agriculture and farming practices while accounting for this potential impact. At the same time, we are trying to ensure maximum utilisation of cultivable land at present to increase cultivation. Special attention has also been directed towards food security, while discussions are focusing on working to ensure conditions are in place to face any potential extremity.
“Moreover, programmes have been prepared to utilise water carefully by spreading proper awareness among the farming community, as well as to maximise yield to ensure food security in the country,” he said.
Furthermore, Deputy Minister of Trade, Commerce, and Food Security R.M. Jayawardana stated that the exact timing of an El Niño occurrence was yet to be confirmed. He noted that if the phenomenon were to become prolonged or too strong, there could be a considerable impact on yields given the expected climatic changes. However, he noted that certain crops, such as paddy, were currently in surplus. He added that the Government was also looking into ensuring the sustainability of excess yields for five to six months.
Jayawardana also noted that a food security concern was not expected for this year, adding that the potential implications, should such a condition occur, would be studied further.
Deputy Minister of Environment Anton Jayakody noted that in recent years, the period of the northeast monsoon had already shortened, leading to reduced rainfall. As such, he added that a fully accurate picture of the potential situation could not be determined yet.
In the event the phenomenon does occur, he noted that it could potentially lead to challenges in cultivation, necessitating proper irrigation, farming adaptations, and agricultural practice adaptations.
Changes in weather patterns
When questioned about the potential implications of an El Niño situation, Department of Meteorology Acting Director General A.L.K. Wijemannage noted that according to forecasts, in the event of an El Niño event, rainfall during July and August was expected to decrease, while heavy rainfall could be expected in the October–November period.
Meanwhile, rainfall in the December–February period is likely to be higher for the northern and eastern regions, although overall rainfall in the country will decrease. If the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) occurs at the same time, it will contribute to higher rainfall and increase the heat around August.
Wijemannage added that due to Cyclone Ditwah, it could be estimated that large reservoirs in regions beyond the east would still retain a considerable amount of water, which must be carefully managed in time to come, especially as rainfall had been low during March and April this year. As rainfall is expected to decline notably in July and August, he noted that it could have a notable impact on agriculture.
At the same time, Wijemannage also pointed out that the potential threat would not be as damaging as portrayed on social media. Sri Lanka has faced strong El Niños multiple times, such as in 1972/’73, 1982/’83, 1997/’98, 2015/’16, and 2023/’24.
“Sri Lanka’s second inter-monsoon occurs in the October–November period. Based on observations from previous years, rainfall in that period tends to increase if El Niño occurs. Other changes that can occur alongside El Niño can lead to changes in these patterns. The impact on Sri Lanka is not expected to be extreme. However, a heavy impact on regions such as India could lead to changes in imports to the country,” he added.
Varying impacts based on other atmospheric occurrences
Meanwhile, speaking to The Sunday Morning, University of Peradeniya (UOP) Faculty of Agriculture Department of Crop Science Senior Professor Buddhi Marambe emphasised the importance of understanding that El Niño occurred due to natural climate variability and not as a result of climate change.
He noted that there was no scientific evidence linking climate change to El Niño, explaining that the phenomenon had existed for hundreds of years and had become more frequent in recent decades. By the end of the 20th century, he noted that El Niño had occurred somewhere between every four to seven years, while now it occurred somewhere between every two to seven years.
Prof. Marambe pointed out that El Niño alone could not be depended on to explain global weather patterns, as it interacted with several other atmospheric changes taking place across the world.
He explained that El Niño developed when sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean along the equator rose above normal levels, resulting in increased water vapour and heavier rainfall in parts of South America, while countries such as Australia and Indonesia experienced decreased rainfall and prolonged dry periods.
However, he noted that Sri Lanka did not necessarily experience the same impacts and highlighted the role of the IOD, which researchers had found to be closely associated with El Niño events.
Based on a long-term study, Prof. Marambe said that the IOD generally, although not always, entered a positive phase during El Niño periods. He explained that when the western Indian Ocean became warmer than normal, increased water vapour developed over the region, creating conditions for higher rainfall across western Sri Lanka and, at times, the rest of the country.
Addressing the implications for agriculture, Prof. Marambe explained that strong El Niño events could alter Sri Lanka’s seasonal weather patterns.
“When El Niño becomes stronger, it can even have an impact on the globe starting from the end of June. During an El Niño year, especially a very strong one, the southwest monsoon can cease abruptly rather than having a gradual cessation. The end result is likely to be that July, August, and even September will be warmer, temperatures will be higher, and soil will be drier than usual,” he said.
Prof. Marambe noted that these conditions directly affected agriculture, as lower soil moisture increased dependence on irrigation to maintain crop growth and survival. Thus, he highlighted that irrigation would have to be conducted carefully. He further explained that flowering-stage crops were particularly vulnerable during prolonged dry periods, as high temperatures could dry out pollen and reduce successful fertilisation.
“If irrigation does not take place properly, productivity is likely to decline dramatically. It is conditional, but that is the risk,” he stated.
In this light, Prof. Marambe stated that the immediate response should focus on effective water management, noting that Sri Lanka’s historical irrigation system had been built to store excess rainfall for use during dry periods.
He further emphasised the need for coordination among relevant institutions to balance water requirements for agriculture, hydroelectricity generation, and human consumption. Meanwhile, looking ahead to the latter part of the year, Prof. Marambe warned that El Niño, together with a potential positive IOD phase, could bring heavy rainfall during October and November.
According to him, the second inter-monsoon period could become significantly stronger, with the effects potentially extending into the northeast monsoon season. Recalling the most recent El Niño event in 2023, he noted that Sri Lanka had experienced intense rainfall during October and November, followed by the northeast monsoon, which had disrupted agricultural production and contributed to sharp increases in vegetable prices.
He explained that prolonged cloud cover during periods of heavy rainfall reduced sunlight available for photosynthesis, limiting crop productivity even when plants remained alive.
“When heavy rainfall continues in October and November due to the IOD becoming positive, which is then followed by the northeast monsoon, it can have a notable effect. We experienced that in 2023 as well, and this is how El Niño could affect Sri Lanka. However, it must be noted that this is not the impact of El Niño alone,” he said.
Prof. Marambe highlighted that the precise extent of crop loss could not be predicted, as El Niño forecasts remained probabilistic and relied on global climate monitoring systems. “People should remain aware and watchful and take necessary action,” he said.
Prof. Marambe also pointed out that higher rainfall due to El Niño could have certain positive outcomes in the months to follow, especially through the replenishment of reservoirs, as fuller reservoirs would provide additional support for agriculture and water management in subsequent seasons.
“Although there is no scientific link between climate change and El Niño, the impact caused by El Niño through increasing environmental temperatures will add to the rising environmental temperatures caused by climate change,” he pointed out.
He further emphasised that El Niño should not be considered in isolation when assessing future climate conditions, noting that several other atmospheric processes, including the Indian Ocean Dipole, influenced weather patterns and their impact on Sri Lanka.
Proper irrigation management
Meanwhile, National Agrarian Unity Chairman Anuradha Tennakoon noted that the impact could be minimal for a country like Sri Lanka due to its existing irrigation resources.
He noted that rainfall had already been declining during the June–August period. However, he outlined long-standing concerns such as the failure to manage irrigation channels properly, not completing necessary renovations, and the overall lack of water for crops – problems that should not be attributed solely to El Niño.
“While proper preparation will be helpful, the impact of El Niño alone could be minimal. However, drought is a possible threat. Moreover, rainfall patterns and timings have changed in the country. Due to this, the lack of water has become an issue, especially in the period between paddy cultivation cycles around July and August. Climate change and global warming have contributed heavily to these changes in patterns,” he said.
In 2025, the average yield per net hectare for the Yala season was 4,760 kg, while the total production for the season was 2,308,400 MT. Meanwhile, paddy production for the 2025/’26 Maha season is estimated at 2.64 million MT, which marks a 3.7% decrease from the previous Maha season.
Tennakoon added overall that there had been an excess in yield in 2025, while also explaining that the actual annual requirement of rice was close to 2.4 million MT due to dynamics in local consumption, for which around 3.8 million MT of paddy harvest was required. Thus, he said that there was no need to import rice, adding that there would be no rice crisis.
Tennakoon also highlighted that this potential threat of El Niño could be perceived as a blessing in disguise that could encourage proper irrigation management in the country in the future.