- Naphtha shortage forces full reliance on diesel for night-time power
- Dry conditions limit hydropower as demand peaks after sunset
- Stocks sufficient until May, but costs rising: CPC
- No hydropower crisis yet; dry spell risk remains: Irrigation Dept.
- El Niño risk expected to emerge from May: Met. Department
Sri Lanka is at a critical juncture regarding power generation and continuous supply, amid concerns over current tensions in the Middle East following the conflict involving Iran and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The current energy crisis is driven by a critical shortage across multiple power generation sources, primarily affecting electricity supply. While hydropower typically accounts for a significant portion of the country’s energy, up to 55% during rainy seasons, generation levels are currently falling as the dry season takes hold.
This decline is compounded by severe issues in the coal sector, where the use of low-quality coal and other related issues have hindered operations. Furthermore, logistical constraints have presented challenges to new coal shipments: they cannot be unloaded between April and late August due to seasonal sea conditions. This leaves the grid vulnerable until the off-season ends.
To bridge this gap, the power supply has become increasingly dependent on diesel-powered generation. This shift presents a major challenge regarding both the cost and the reliability of fuel supplies.
Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East threaten the continuity of these imports, raising questions about whether the Government can secure enough fuel to maintain the power supply without significantly increasing electricity tariffs for the public.
Current generation
Sri Lanka’s electricity system by Thursday (26) reflected a growing dependence on thermal generation to meet peak demand, raising concerns over supply stability amid dry weather conditions.
According to Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) data, total electricity generation for the day stood at 59.98 GWh, with fossil fuels accounting for over 53% of the energy mix. Coal remained the single largest contributor, generating 16.13 GWh (26.9%), closely followed by thermal oil plants, which collectively supplied 15.80 GWh (26.35%).
While renewable sources contributed the remaining share, solar power emerged as a significant component of daytime generation, providing 13.07 GWh (21.79%), including both rooftop and ground-mounted systems. Hydropower, traditionally a key stabiliser of the grid, generated 12.50 GWh (20.86%), reflecting constrained output.
Electricity demand followed the typical dual-peak pattern, with the highest demand recorded at 7 p.m., reaching 3,142.4 MW. A secondary peak of 3,030.6 MW was observed at 4.45 p.m., while the lowest demand of 1,832.5 MW occurred in the early hours at 3.30 a.m.
The evening peak, however, highlighted structural vulnerabilities in the system. With solar generation unavailable after sunset, the grid relied heavily on dispatchable sources. Coal plants supplied 697.5 MW during the peak hour, while the Mahaweli Hydropower Complex contributed 679.6 MW and independent power producers using thermal oil added 588.5 MW to maintain supply.
This reliance on thermal and hydro generation comes against the backdrop of deteriorating hydrological conditions. As of Friday (27), no rainfall had been recorded in major catchment areas, including Castlereagh, Maussakelle, Victoria, and Samanalawewa Reservoirs. Water levels at key reservoirs, such as Maussakelle and Victoria, remain under pressure, limiting the system’s ability to depend on hydro generation in the coming weeks.
The data highlights a widening gap between daytime renewable gains and nighttime demand requirements, reinforcing concerns that sustained dry conditions and continued dependence on costly thermal generation could heighten the risk of supply constraints and potential power interruptions if demand continues to rise. When compared to data from past weeks, it shows that coal power generation has seen a reduced contribution to the grid alongside an increase in diesel dependency.
Critical naphtha shortage and cost of diesel power
Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) Chairman D.J. Rajakaruna and Cabinet Spokesperson, Minister Nalinda Jayatissa highlighted mounting pressures on the fuel supply chain, warning that delays in crude oil imports and a critical shortage of naphtha were forcing a costly shift in power generation. They made these remarks during a media briefing held at the Department of Government Information last week.
Rajakaruna revealed that a scheduled 90,000 MT crude oil shipment, expected between 24 and 25 March, had failed to arrive, placing a limit on refinery operations. “Because the crude oil ship for 24–25 March is not coming, we can only operate the refinery until the middle of next month,” he said.
The situation is particularly critical as the refinery is the country’s sole producer of naphtha, a key fuel used in electricity generation. While an emergency tender has secured a furnace oil shipment expected on 12–13 April to support power generation, Rajakaruna noted that naphtha supplies could not be secured under current conditions.
“We cannot get naphtha. Instead, we have to consume diesel [for power],” he said, adding that the shift had made diesel the primary fuel for nighttime electricity generation. “From now on, the lights you get at night will be powered by diesel.”
Jayatissa explained that the refinery typically accounted for around 30% of the country’s diesel supply and between 20% and 25% of petrol production. The loss of this local output, coupled with a surge in panic buying, has rapidly depleted existing reserves. He noted that within the first 10 days of the current situation, approximately 57,000 MT of diesel and 45,000 MT of petrol had been released to meet demand, placing additional strain on supplies.
The financial burden of maintaining fuel supply under these conditions is substantial. Despite recent price revisions, the Government continues to subsidise fuel, absorbing around Rs. 100 per litre of diesel and Rs. 20 per litre of petrol, costing the Treasury an estimated Rs. 20 billion per month. Rajakaruna further detailed the pricing disparity, stating that diesel currently costs Rs. 586.56 per litre to import but is being sold at Rs. 382, resulting in a loss exceeding Rs. 204 per litre.
To avert supply disruptions, the Government has put in place an emergency procurement schedule for April. According to Jayatissa, confirmed shipments include two diesel shipments of 37,000 MT each, expected between 6–7 April and 7–8 April; 35,000 MT of Jet A-1 fuel scheduled for 10–11 April; 30,000 MT of fuel oil for power generation due between 12–13 April; and 30,000 MT of petrol expected on 16–17 April. While no crude oil shipments are scheduled for April, a consignment has been planned for June.
Rajakaruna maintained that these emergency measures would ensure sufficient fuel availability in the short term, noting that “there will be no need for any power cuts” over the coming month. However, both officials stressed that this stability came at a significantly higher cost, with the power sector now increasingly dependent on diesel-based generation. They underscored that “mindful consumption” of electricity by the public remained essential to managing both demand and the growing financial burden on the State.
Meanwhile, on Friday (27), the Government announced that a new shipment of 38,000 MT of petrol and diesel from India was scheduled to arrive in Colombo on Saturday (28), following discussions between President Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Stocks and hydropower concerns
CPC Managing Director Mayura Neththikumarage sought to allay concerns over diesel shortages and their potential impact on electricity generation, assuring that fuel availability remained stable in the immediate term. He said that current diesel stocks were sufficient to last until the end of May, noting that the existing installed generation capacity was operating without disruption. As such, there is no immediate requirement to impose power cuts due to fuel shortages.
However, he acknowledged the cost implications associated with fuel-based generation, particularly during peak hours. While diesel-fired power plants remain reliable, generating electricity during high-demand periods is significantly more expensive due to rising global fuel prices.
Neththikumarage further stated that the fuel supply chain remained active, with multiple shipments scheduled to arrive. At least two additional shipments are expected in the coming weeks, with further deliveries planned at the beginning of next month to ensure continuity.
He also addressed ongoing negotiations with Russia, confirming that the Russian side had agreed to supply fuel. Discussions are currently focused on finalising tanker arrival schedules and logistical arrangements. Clarifying speculation surrounding payment mechanisms, he stated that transactions for Russian fuel would be conducted in US Dollars, not in Russian currency.
Meanwhile, Irrigation Department Director General Eng. K. Weligepolage emphasised that water management decisions were guided primarily by agricultural requirements rather than electricity generation needs. He noted that current reservoir levels remained within normal ranges, with the Yala cultivation season having commenced approximately one week ago. Water releases are expected to continue steadily over the next three months to support farming activities.
He also noted that hydropower generation was a secondary outcome of water releases: “Water is released for cultivation and drinking purposes, and electricity generation occurs as a byproduct.”
To optimise available resources, the department follows a balancing strategy between renewable energy sources. During daytime hours, greater reliance is placed on solar and wind power, allowing reservoir water to be conserved. At night, when solar generation is unavailable, hydropower output is maximised to meet demand. Looking ahead, he noted that while there was currently no ‘special alert’ and operations were proceeding under normal conditions, forecasts indicated the likelihood of a dry spell.
Weligepolage also did not rule out the possibility of future power cuts, explaining that grid stability depended on multiple external factors, including the availability of diesel and the consistency of solar power generation. For now, the department remained focused on maximising electricity generation within the constraints of water released for the Yala season, he said.
Growing dry weather conditions
Department of Meteorology Duty Meteorologist Malith Fernando elaborated on the atmospheric mechanisms influencing Sri Lanka’s rainfall patterns, highlighting the complexities these pose for long-term energy planning.
Explaining the country’s vulnerability, Fernando noted that due to Sri Lanka’s geographic position within the equatorial belt, shifts in large-scale atmospheric systems, particularly changes in the Walker circulation, a global wind pattern, could directly alter the country’s weather from its normal annual conditions.
He pointed out that while El Niño conditions were often associated with dry weather, they did not necessarily guarantee a complete drought. This is because other atmospheric processes can intervene. Short-term weather events, such as thunderstorms lasting only a few hours, as well as intra-seasonal phenomena like the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), which typically operates on a 30- to 60-day cycle, can bring unexpected rainfall and, at times, save a season.
However, Fernando stressed that such short-term fluctuations could not be relied upon for national-level planning. “In planning, it is not the short-term events that are useful, but the long-term ones,” he said. “While the MJO might cause the season to recover, for actual planning, we must clearly prepare for the risk by looking at El Niño.”
He further noted that although there was currently ‘no issue’ as of March, the risk profile was expected to change significantly in the coming months. Forecasts indicate a likely transition towards El Niño conditions beginning in May, which coincides with the onset of the southwest monsoon.
Fernando identified May as a particularly high-risk period for the energy sector. Under El Niño conditions, May traditionally carries a heightened probability of rainfall deficits. The phenomenon introduces wind patterns that oppose and weaken the south-westerly monsoon flow, thereby reducing the volume of rainfall reaching the island. This has direct implications for hydropower generation. As the southwest monsoon is a key contributor to reservoir inflows, a weakened monsoon flow means that the required volume of water cannot be replenished in major reservoirs used for electricity generation.
He emphasised that while the atmosphere remained inherently complex and “every El Niño doesn’t make us dry,” the statistical risk posed by a weakened southwest monsoon was too significant to be ignored in long-term energy planning.
Requests to the public
Against this backdrop, Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority (SLSEA) Chairman Prof. Wijendra Jayalath Bandara highlighted the urgent need for public cooperation in managing the country’s energy demand, stressing that while uninterrupted electricity supply could be maintained, the timing of consumption carried significant economic consequences.
Many Government politicians have also been requesting the public for ‘responsible use’ of energy this week on their social media platforms and at public gatherings.
Bandara said that currently there was “no problem in providing a continuous electricity supply,” but warned that demand patterns, particularly during peak hours, placed a heavy financial burden on the system. Explaining the cost dynamics, the Chairman noted that thermal power generation, which relies on burning fossil fuels, had become increasingly expensive amid rising global fuel prices. During peak hours, when demand surges, the system is compelled to depend more heavily on these thermal sources.
“Even if we ensure continuous supply, high costs must be incurred if electricity demand increases during these hours,” he said, pointing to the reliance on costly fuel-based generation. He emphasised that shifting electricity usage away from the peak window between 6 p.m. and 10 p.m. and particularly the critical period from 6 p.m. to 8.15 p.m. could significantly reduce the need to generate power using oil-based thermal plants.
Such demand-side adjustments would directly ease the financial burden associated with fuel imports. As an example, he noted that switching off refrigerators for just two hours during peak periods without causing significant impact on their operation could reduce national energy consumption by approximately 200 MWh, thereby lowering reliance on expensive thermal generation.
“If consumption can be shifted slightly, that would be great,” he said, encouraging the public to move activities such as ironing and using washing machines to daytime hours or weekends to reduce pressure on the system.
He further detailed how incremental actions across households could translate into substantial reductions in peak demand. If each consumer switches off a single 8 W light bulb for 1–2 hours, peak demand could fall by around 45 MW. Similarly, turning off one fan for an hour could reduce demand by approximately 72 MW, while switching off refrigerators between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m. could lower demand by a further 98 MW. He also urged electric vehicle users to avoid charging between 6 p.m. and 10 p.m., noting that such adjustments would provide massive support to the grid.
However, energy analysts and experts point out that responsible usage alone might not be sufficient to face the looming crisis in the present context. It is also warned that an electricity price hike would be inevitable with the high reliance on diesel to generate electricity at this juncture.
Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) Chairman Prof. Lalith Chandralal, addressing speculation on possible power outages, said that there was no immediate move by the Government to impose power cuts.
“At the moment, there won’t be any power cuts. The PUCSL hasn’t received any proposals or requests from the Government about power cuts,” he said, dismissing reports of imminent scheduled interruptions. He added, however, that the stability of supply would depend on the continued availability of essential inputs, noting that the risk would only arise if such supplies were not received going forward.
On the pending electricity tariff revision, he said the PUCSL was in the final stages of its decision-making process. While public speculation continues over the scale of any increase, Prof. Chandralal indicated that the details would be finalised on Monday (30). “All of that – how much it will increase – will be determined on 30 March,” he said.
Repeated attempts to contact Minister of Energy Kumara Jayakody and Deputy Energy Minister Arkam Ilyas were unsuccessful.