While the Department of Agriculture has announced that Sri Lanka will not be required to import rice, green gram, black gram, kurakkan (finger millet), cowpea, and groundnut for 2023, agriculture experts have expressed uncertainty on whether complete self-sufficiency is a possibility.
According to the department, Sri Lanka is self-sufficient in these crops at present. Accordingly, there will be a surplus of 300,000 MT of rice for 2023, with the annual requirement of rice being 2.4 million MT. With the harvest in the last Maha season and this Yala season, Sri Lanka can produce 2.7 million MT of rice.
The annual requirement of green gram is 20,000 MT and a harvest of 13,439 MT of green gram has been produced this year while around 13,740 MT of cowpea has already been produced to meet the annual requirement of 15,000 MT.
For black gram, current production stands at 17,866 MT for an annual requirement of 20,000 MT while the annual requirement of groundnut is 35,000 MT and this year’s harvest is around 36,498 MT. Around 6,408 MT of kurakkan has already been produced this year in order to meet the annual requirement of 10,000 MT.
Self-sufficiency ‘likely in a couple of years’
Speaking to The Sunday Morning, University of Peradeniya Faculty of Agriculture Department of Crop Science Senior Professor Buddhi Marambe said that becoming self-sufficient in these crops was a likelihood in the upcoming couple of years.
“Last year, we didn’t achieve the expected agricultural production, so we had to import about 783,000 MT of rice. However, with the harvests of last year’s Maha season and this year’s Yala season coming in this year, I believe that we will have a sufficient paddy harvest, even if it does not yield a surplus. Accordingly, we will not need to import rice for the ordinary consumer,” he said, noting that Sri Lanka typically had been able to manufacture a surplus of paddy prior to the disastrous agrochemical ban.
“For green gram, the harvest that can be obtained is very limited. For instance, barely a tonne can be obtained from one hectare. However, the Government is undertaking a programme to increase the cultivation area of crops such as green gram, for instance by growing in between cultivation seasons. The issue is that green gram is very expensive at present. This means that green gram production is low, leading to high demand and subsequent high prices.
“We may not be able to completely fulfil the requirement for crops such as green gram and cowpea via domestic production this year, but there will be a significant increase. When it comes to groundnuts, we already produce a surplus. For kurakkan, consumer demand and pricing changes according to the time; people purchase these if it is available.
“There is a likelihood that we can become self-sufficient in these crops in two or three years, but it is not that we must produce all crops within Sri Lanka itself; instead, there should be a greater focus on what we can grow well and get a greater yield from.”
Self-sufficiency ‘very unlikely’
However, University of Peradeniya Faculty of Agriculture Department of Agricultural Economics and Business Management Senior Professor of Agricultural Economics Jeevika Weerahewa opined that self-sufficiency in these crops would be “very unlikely”.
“While we increased our production of green gram, black gram, etc., at the same time there has been a sharp rise in the prices of these items. We can be self-sufficient if you say that self-sufficiency is consuming what we produce locally, but it doesn’t mean anything. Achieving self-sufficiency is not an objective as far as the development of the country is concerned.
“In order to see a development, we should see people consuming things in sufficient quantities, meaning that products should be available in the market in sufficient quantities. In a way, self-sufficiency can be achieved through import restrictions, but it does not mean that people would be in a position to afford these commodities. Therefore, I don’t think this would be possible in the near future for green gram and black gram.
“With regard to rice, however, it is closely related to fertiliser availability. Once the fertiliser situation is settled I don’t believe we would have serious problems with rice, since even during the agrochemical ban, we were producing more than what we needed for consumption. If we import fertiliser in sufficient quantities and distribute it among farmers at affordable prices, then the situation will improve.”
Varied crops, varied requirements
Meanwhile, former Secretary to the Ministry of Agriculture and Wayamba University Department of Agribusiness Management Faculty of Agriculture and Plantation Management Chair Snr. Prof. Udith K. Jayasinghe-Mudalige said that various crops would have various requirements for self-sufficiency.
“Rice self-sufficiency can be assured, since we were self-sufficient in 2020 as well, before the agrochemical ban and Covid. However, when it comes to green gram and black gram, we are not self-sufficient and importation of certain quantities may be needed.
“When people are self-sufficient in rice at the household level, then they reduce consumption of green gram, black gram in favour of rice. When rice is available and its per kg costs are low, people don’t go for green gram, etc. as a replacement. So depending on the needs of the country certain amounts will have to be imported.
“We were self-sufficient in groundnuts and kurakkan a few years ago. This is not measured by the yield, but by whether the country has sufficient stocks to release to consumers. We are likely to be self-sufficient in groundnut, kurakkan, gingelly, etc., but not in green gram, black gram, and cowpea; these will need to be imported because stocks aren’t sufficient. However, conditions are certainly better than the last couple of years.”
While noting that consumption patterns would not drastically be affected unlike during the past several years, he however pointed out that it was difficult to gather data on production of crops such as kurakkan and gingelly, since they are chenna cultivations and are not issued fertiliser, etc.
Forecast of crop production and targets
Addressing the crop data put out by the department, Prof. Marambe explained that the monthly forecast of crop production and targets were likely to fluctuate at certain periods, depending on population, etc. “The monthly requirement of rice, for example, is calculated considering individual consumption patterns.”
He noted that since these calculations were done based on a scientific basis, there was always a margin of error. “Predictions such as these can go wrong in specific ways; for instance, if they fail to predict certain weather conditions or there happens to be an unexpected event, etc. there can be a change in the expected harvest. So, rather than saying the department’s calculations are erroneous, unexpected events can cause errors in calculations.”
As confirmed by Department of Agriculture Socio Economics and Planning Centre Director A.T. Sooriyaarachchi, the department bases its calculations on the 2019 Household Income and Expenditure Survey.
Addressing whether this would skew the present calculations, Prof. Marambe said: “This is the base on which per capita data is calculated. For 2023 as well, they are calculating in terms of 107 kg per capita consumption of rice,” he said, adding: “There can always be a margin of error, but the calculations are done assuming the worst scenario. Accordingly, there is always a safety margin being kept to overcome any errors done in calculations.”
He further noted that the department was “forecasting slightly higher consumption for this year,” amounting to 112.3 kg per capita consumption of rice. “However, according to the predictions, even with this level of consumption, we will have 8% more rice than we can consume,” he said.
Control creates impression of self-sufficiency
Prof. Weerahewa, however, was of the opinion that the Government’s control over the market would allow it to create the impression of self-sufficiency.
“For example, import control can be brought in by authorities, and then people respond to import restrictions by growing the items that are restricted. Then you will see domestic production increasing. At the same time, the Government is in a position to provide some support like free seeds, fertiliser, etc. Accordingly, the Government can manipulate the system and artificially create a situation where we produce a little bit more and consume what we produce, meaning that we will arrive at a state where you will call it a self-sufficient state.”
However, the ideal of self-sufficiency is far removed from this, instead of artificially creating an environment where you can call it a state of self-sufficiency, she noted. “Ideally, there should be new innovations and varieties, so that we produce using fewer resources, leading to lower cost of production and prices. That way, we increase production, reduce prices, and people will consume quantities they need while buying the product at affordable prices.”
She noted that the department conducted annual consumption surveys, which gave it an idea of household consumption. “On the other hand, they do these rough calculations looking at how it is produced locally and how much was imported, etc, and come up with an indicator called ‘apparent consumption,’ meaning that apparently people have consumed a certain quantity. This figure is divided by the population to compute the requirement.”
According to Prof. Jayasinghe, given the system available to source data, there’s only a minimum chance of error for statistics related to rice. However, for other crops, rather than errors, there are difficulties in data gathering.
Consumers pay heavy price
Despite assurances by the Government, most of these food items remain out of reach of ordinary consumers, with prices having undergone drastic increases over the years.
For instance, the latest price of some of these food items in the market, especially when compared to pre-pandemic prices, demonstrates a steep increase. While a kilogramme of green gram is Rs. 1,176.85, cowpea costs Rs. 915.74 in the third week of July, the prices of these two items in the corresponding period of 2019 stood at Rs. 285.16 and Rs. 291.30, respectively.
As per the Ministry of Agriculture progress report for 2021, average annual production of paddy during 2018-2020 stood at 4,547,664 MT while the national requirement was 3,811,000 MT. For other field crops like kurakkan, production stood at 6,593 MT while the national requirement was 14,000 MT.
Despite a national requirement of 28,000 MT annually, average green gram production was 10,236 MT. For cowpea, an annual production of 10,821 MT was achieved while 20,000 MT was required. Black gram saw a production of 8,774 MT for a requirement of 25,000 MT.
Meanwhile, groundnut had sufficient production to meet requirements, with a production of 30,300 MT against a requirement of 30,000 MT.