Sri Lankans watching the prevailing situation in Katmandu, Nepal would have breathed a sigh of relief, with the sobering thought of ‘OMG! That could have been us!’. Many Sri Lankans would have patted themselves in the back for what was a more orderly change of government and a more restrained use of law and order during Sri Lanka’s recent upheaval.
Had Sri Lankan law enforcement agencies and the defence establishment acted with less restraint, the outcome for Colombo could have been much worse. Therefore, both law enforcement and the military, despite their long list of legacy failures and shortcomings, deserve to be recognised for professional conduct during what was, a very dynamic and high-pressure period. The Sri Lankan public, despite many fault-lines and polarisation must also be commended for not being easily baited into mass anarchy, vigilantism, and bloodshed, like what we have witnessed in Bangladesh and Nepal.
The historic change which Sri Lanka navigated, and the trajectory it is on thus far has largely been positive. However, the fall of the Nepali Government – its politics rooted in insurrection Communism, and later, in use of repression – is a good example for the current administration in Colombo, about what can go wrong when revolutionary movements fail. The lessons for good governance from the Nepali situation are numerous, if what’s left of the legacy polity in Colombo failed to learn anything from our experience.
The imagery which came out from Nepal was concerning, and it indicates a growing disconnect with youth and state. It is also emblematic of how the polity has failed the nation. Resistance to corruption and impunity gradually builds up, and needs but a match to light the powder keg of repressed emotions. And in a flash, the outcome is anarchy, bloodshed and upheaval. While the social media ban may have been the match, the powder keg was built over a long period and includes a list of woes, which many communities in many nations have long voiced. Many have drawn parallels to the 2022 ‘aragalaya’ movement in Sri Lanka, the subsequent uprising in Bangladesh and what is transpiring in Nepal. There is a lesson for Asian democracies in all these movements, and a warning about how fast radical change can happen. In both Bangladesh and Nepali examples, we see that violence and loss of life was significant. Both nations are now undergoing a transformative period. For the regional power – India, the flash and violent change in Nepal, lights a ring of fires around their periphery, with only their deep south protected by Sri Lanka – now offering relative stability.
The youth in Nepal were cognizant of what happened in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. They too were sick to their core with the systemic corruption, abuse of power and the impunity which their political class governed. Like many Sri Lankan youth, in face of their dreams and aspirations being crushed, many Nepalese tried to migrate to better pastures. Like in Colombo, their protests were largely peaceful at the beginning, and the eruption of anguish came following the Police opening fire on protestors leaving many dead and injured.
Today, Nepal sits at a fork in the road, which Colombo has passed. Many in Nepal, still fuelled by anger justify the mob violence which blanketed the nation. Sri Lanka saw a fraction of such vengeance attacks, mainly directed at elements of the polity and their henchmen, there were also attacks due to mistaken identification, and personal vendettas being settled. However, like in Nepal, in Sri Lanka there seems to be little enthusiasm to investigate such matters.
Regardless of how Nepal navigates their fork in the road, we Sri Lankans need to ensure that we do not return to such circumstances. The next round, if there is one, would likely be much brutal and possibly devastating in a scale of magnitude which may not be able to fathom today. That is why we must hold this Government responsible and accountable, to ensure they get on a better trajectory and deliver key good governance outcomes for us all.