President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s tenure will be over by November. Article 31.3 of the Constitution stipulates that the notification for the Presidential Polls must be issued “not less than one month and not more than two months before the expiration of the term of office of the president”. In the present context, the deadline for election notification is due before 4 September. Barring some unforeseen calamity, the Presidential Elections will have to be held before October.

However, President Wickremesinghe, presenting his policy statement during the opening of the fifth session of Parliament on 7 February, made no reference to the Presidential Election. His address highlighted achievements in stabilisation of the economy with the implementation of reforms under his watch. 

There was a significant turnaround of the country’s economy, indicated by the 1.6% growth in the third quarter of 2023, following negative growth in the past six consecutive quarters in 2022. There was a 130% growth in tax registrations; major State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) bounced back with a profit of Rs. 313 billion by September 2023 after suffering a loss of Rs. 745 billion by end-September 2022. The tourism sector saw a resurgence with 200,000 arrivals in January and is expected to close the year with five million tourist arrivals.

The policy speech, replete with nuggets of achievement under his watch, may well be a forerunner of his campaign for the Presidential Election. Political leaders are always suspicious of Wickremesinghe’s astute moves and try to read between the lines. 

Chief Opposition Whip Lakshman Kiriella, perhaps reading the political tea leaves, saw “a plan to have the Presidential Election put off, making use of civil society as a cat’s paw”. Perhaps he had in mind the National Movement for Social Justice led by former Speaker Karu Jayasuriya, which has initiated discussions on scrapping the executive presidency, although it was against postponing the election. Regardless, this has triggered fresh doubts about Wickremesinghe’s intentions regarding the Presidential Election. 

Party lines 

In October 2023, when he appointed the Presidential Committee to examine all existing election laws and regulations and make necessary recommendations for amendments to election laws ‘to suit the current situation,’ many saw it as a ploy to delay Parliamentary Elections due in 2025. Abolition of the Executive Presidency and the proportional voting system are hardy perennials when politicians talk of constitutional reforms. Their fear is that the committee may recommend some reforms to the Constitution, delaying the General Election. 

Accordingly, when three former Presidents – Chandrika Kumaratunga, Mahinda Rajapaksa, and Maithripala Sirisena – came out in support of the abolition of the Executive Presidency, the issue received political traction. The ruling pro-Rajapaksa Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), the main Opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) led by Sajith Premadasa, and the aspirant for big league politics, the National People’s Power (NPP) led by the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) are not in favour of the abolition of the Executive Presidency at this juncture. 

The Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), emasculated after the poor performance of Maithripala Sirisena as President, supported the proposal but opposed “any attempt by President Wickremesinghe to remain in power beyond his term”. The President’s own United National Party (UNP) is still to regain its strength after the drubbing at the last Parliamentary Elections.

The Tamil polity traditionally led by the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK) is locked in a leadership schism. The party leaders have shot themselves in the foot by going to court over the recently held election of ITAK’s Chairman. Due to internal preoccupations, ITAK may not be able to assert its strength as it did in the past. 

Ranil and the SLPP 

Although President Wickremesinghe’s UNP failed to win a single seat at the Parliamentary Election, he is likely to be fielded as the SLPP’s presidential candidate. According to Chief Government Whip Prasanna Ranatunga, the party will decide once Basil Rajapaksa arrives in Sri Lanka. He indicated that the party would have to rally around Wickremesinghe as he had managed to bring some kind of stability to the nation. 

More importantly, Wickremesinghe has been lending a helping hand to SLPP stalwarts in trouble. The sordid tale of a scam in the procurement of substandard human intravenous immunoglobulin under the watch of then-Health Minister Keheliya Rambukwella is a case in point. When stories of the scam dogged him, he was shifted to the Environment portfolio. 

The arrest of the elusive and influential Minister on 2 February came after widespread demand for action from media and civil society. Apparently, the errant Minister was brought to book when the President ran out of options. He is now in remand custody until 14 March. His lawyers have filed a Fundamental Rights petition challenging his arrest, demanding a compensation of Rs. 100 million. This is only one such example among many.

However, the Rajapaksas will demand a price for SLPP support of Wickremesinghe’s candidature. Namal Rajapaksa – the heir apparent – has been politically active, paying his respects to the right nikayas. His ascent along Wickremesinghe’s power structure as president is probably in the reckoning. 

Indian investments 

India and the US would also probably prefer Wickremesinghe’s election. India earned a lot of goodwill in Sri Lanka by lending $ 4 billion when it was bankrupt and China played ducks and drakes with its loans. President Wickremesinghe cashed in on the goodwill to invite Indian investments in a big way. 

The Adani Group has two big-ticket investments in Sri Lanka – developing the West Container Terminal of the Colombo Port using $ 553 million from the US Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and Adani Green Energy (Sri Lanka) winning the clearance and energy permit to operate the $ 355 million, 234 MW Pooneryn wind energy project in the Northern Province. 

Mint has reported that India is working on operationalising rupee investments in Sri Lanka to boost Indian investments in the island nation. Last year, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had allowed invoicing and payments for international trade with Sri Lanka in Indian Rupees, easing the settlement of export and import transactions. With the introduction of Unified Payment Interface (UPI) online transactions in Sri Lanka, Indian tourists are flocking to Sri Lanka.

India and Sri Lanka are working on a number of connectivity initiatives unveiled during President Wickremesinghe’s visit to New Delhi in July 2023. These initiatives include power grid linkages, a petroleum pipeline, a land bridge, capacity-building in administration, and a comprehensive Economic and Technology Cooperation Agreement (ETCA). 

The ETCA deal always triggers political polemics among fringe politicians. If the goodwill generated by India during Sri Lanka’s tough times lasts, the ETCA negotiations can be finalised during 2025.

President Wickremesinghe has not been successful in fulfilling India’s insistence on fully enforcing the 13th Amendment to the Constitution to give a level of autonomy to the Tamil minority. However, he has demonstrated his efforts through dialogues with Tamil politicians and holistically through initiatives like the Plural Action for Conflict Transformation (PACT) project in 17 districts over a duration of three years to foster reconciliation and harmony across the nation.

Presidential hopefuls 

The US will also most probably prefer the re-election of President Wickremesinghe. US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Verma visited Sri Lanka during February and the country received a pat from him for showing solidarity with the US-led multinational naval initiative ‘Operation Prosperity Guardian’ against Houthis attacking international marine traffic in the Red Sea. 

He announced that the US would gift a fourth Coast Guard cutter to the Sri Lanka Navy to expand its naval operations. The Sri Lanka Navy has confirmed that one of its vessels has completed its maiden patrol in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and is returning home. The US probably appreciates Sri Lanka’s cooperation in ensuring Indo-Pacific security, particularly in refusing to allow the entry of Chinese survey vessels into Sri Lankan waters. Sri Lanka also needs US support in international forums like the UNHRC. 

The problem is Wickremesinghe’s record of election defeats, probably unmatched by other frontline leaders. His re-election is likely to be challenged by SJB Leader Sajith Premadasa and the dark horse of the NPP Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD). Both leaders are wooing Army veterans to join their ranks. Premadasa is also looking for former supporters of Gotabaya Rajapaksa to join the SJB. 

Leftist leader AKD, who rose in popularity during the ‘Aragalaya’ days, appears to be grooming himself for the high office with a makeover of his image. He has been meeting International Monetary Fund (IMF) representatives and foreign diplomats, including the US Ambassador. He has also dropped the JVP’s signature anti-India rhetoric. 

AKD was invited to India by the Indian Council of Cultural Relations and during the visit he met with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, and other key leaders. He also went on a trip to Gujarat and visited Anand, the home of the Amul dairy project. 

Sinhalese nationalist leader Patali Champika Ranawaka, who has formed the United Republic Front (URF), is also in the fray. This March, we can expect political parties to fall into a frenzy in their quest to form winning fronts to face the election. More clarity on the fortunes of various candidates will probably emerge in the course of the next two months.

(The writer is a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism and served as the Head of Intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force [IPKF] in Sri Lanka from 1987-’90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com; website: https://col.hariharan.info)