Last weekend, nearly 200 million Europeans went to the polls to elect 720 members of the European Parliament. These elections, held from 6 to 9 June across 27 European Union (EU) countries, have yielded results that highlight major political shifts in the continent.
Context and composition
The European Parliament now consists of 720 members, up from 705 in 2019, but still fewer than the 751 members before Brexit. These seats are distributed roughly in proportion to each country’s population size, though smaller EU member states receive slightly more seats per capita.
For instance, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy have around 800,000 people per Member of the European Parliament (MEP), while smaller states like Estonia, Cyprus, Luxembourg, and Malta have less than 200,000 people per MEP. Despite this, the larger EU countries hold the most seats, often influencing what appear to be Europe-wide trends.
Fragmentation and group dynamics
Understanding the composition of the European Parliament requires acknowledging the larger European-level groups that MEPs and their parties form. These groups, incentivised by political and procedural advantages, include The Left, the Greens/European Free Alliance, the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), Renew Europe, the European People’s Party (EPP), the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), and Identity and Democracy (ID).
Prior to the election, the European Parliament was composed of 176 MEPs from the EPP, 139 from the S&D, 102 from Renew, 71 from the Greens, 69 from the ECR, 49 from ID, 37 from The Left, and 62 Non-Inscrits (NI; those without a group).
Election results
The recent election results have reshaped this composition.
The EPP won 14 more seats, reaching 190. The S&D lost three seats, bringing its total to 136. Renew lost 22 seats, bringing its total to 80. The ECR gained seven seats, totalling 76, and ID added nine seats, totalling 58.
The Greens retained their 52 seats. The Left gained two seats, increasing its count to 39. The number of NI members decreased to 45, while newly-elected members not allied to any of the political groups set up in the outgoing Parliament now total 44.
Voter behaviour and trends
Drawing definitive conclusions from these results is challenging due to varying voter behaviour across countries. In some nations, European elections are distinctly European, with voters supporting parties reflecting their preferred EU-level policies. In others, these elections serve as a barometer for national sentiment, with voters expressing satisfaction or dissatisfaction with their incumbent governments.
In some countries, there is little interest in European elections, as studies show many citizens neither care about nor understand them. Nonetheless, two clear trends have emerged: fragmentation and a shift to the Right.
Fragmentation
Fragmentation is evident in the distribution of seats. Only the EPP has more than 20% of MEPs, and there are now four groups with between 50 and 80 MEPs each. The distribution of NI MEPs and newly-elected members not allied to any political group further accentuates this fragmentation.
Divisions are also apparent within and between groups. The European Right is split on various issues, including Ukraine and European integration, while the centre is increasingly divided. The coalition that backed Ursula von der Leyen in 2019, primarily composed of the EPP, the S&D, and Renew, now faces internal disagreements over the ‘Green New Deal,’ immigration, and European expansion. These divisions may complicate governing, despite the coalition’s majority.
Shift to the ‘Right’
Every group to the Right of Renew gained seats, while every group to the Left, including Renew, saw their share decrease. Renew and the Greens experienced especially sharp declines. The NI group, primarily composed of Right-wing parties like Germany’s AfD (Alternative for Germany), Hungary’s Fidesz, and Poland’s Confederation, could potentially cooperate with ID or the ECR, or form a new group.
This shift to the Right was driven by electoral dynamics in France and Germany. In France, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) won a 31% plurality, more than double Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance coalition, which narrowly beat the Socialists. Macron’s decline largely explains Renew’s losses and has led him to call snap elections, challenging the French electorate to put Le Pen in power.
In Germany, the Centre-Right Christian Democrats secured a significant 30% plurality. Despite scandals, the Far-Right AfD came second, surpassing Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats by a few percentage points. This was a particularly poor outcome for Germany’s governing coalition, with all three parties losing ground compared to 2019.
Looking ahead
While the Right performed well overall, the aggregate numbers obscure significant intra-European variation. Right-wing parties underperformed in several countries, including Belgium, Poland, and Sweden. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia secured 29% of the vote, but this gain came at the expense of other Right-wing parties, leaving the overall Right-wing vote share unchanged from 2019.
Conversely, green and Far-Left parties exceeded expectations in some countries, such as the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, and Finland. However, their successes were offset by the decline of the French and German greens, who saw their vote shares roughly halved compared to 2019.
A fragmented future
As the dust settles, it is clear that Europe’s political future remains uncertain. The results of the latest European Parliamentary Elections have left the political landscape more fragmented and shifted towards the Right. This fragmentation will likely complicate the process of governing and selecting a new president for the EU Commission.
The divisions within and between political groups reflect the broader challenges facing the EU, from internal disagreements over policy directions to varying national sentiments about the EU itself.