• Early planting aims to capture rain, save reservoir water for forecast Jan.–Feb. dry spell
• Mahaweli Authority targets 218,854 hectares, with 95% allocated to short-duration paddy
• Water release dates vary by system; farmers have 3 weeks to prepare land, with no extensions planned
• Delayed planting raises risk for farmers who depend on minor tanks
• Most Yala paddy escaped dry spell despite localised drinking water shortages, officials say
• UN agencies place SL under ‘elevated concern’ amid El Niño, food, fuel, fertiliser pressures
• Govt. monitors essential food imports; assessment of supplies beyond Dec. remains pending

On 18 September, the Ministry of Agriculture, farmers, representatives of the Mahaweli Authority including its Water Management Secretariat, and other officials met for the pre-seasonal meeting for the 2026/’27 Maha season. 

The meeting, known as ‘kanna resweema,’ is an official and traditional planning session held before each cultivation season. It brings together farming communities, agrarian service officials, irrigation engineers, and Local Government authorities to agree on when paddy cultivation will begin, which other crops will be grown, and how water will be allocated. 

The Department of Meteorology also took part this year because of the El Niño conditions now affecting the country.

The decisions from the meeting were formalised in the cropping calendar and water distribution schedule for the 2026/’27 Maha season. The document is dated 23 September and was issued by Mahaweli Authority Water Management Secretariat Director Eng. D.M.N.J. Dhanapala. 

The secretariat described the season as a critical juncture for national food security. It said that the schedules had been designed to maximise land productivity while protecting reservoir storage amid shifting climate patterns.

A season planned around reservoirs

Across all Mahaweli systems, the total planned land extent for the season is 221,283 hectares, with the actual cultivation target set at 218,854 hectares.

Paddy makes up 90.3% of the targeted land, or 197,673 hectares, and all of it must be of the 105-day (3.5-month) variety. Other crops and sugarcane cover the remaining 9.7%, or 21,181 hectares. These are concentrated in systems where water conservation and crop diversification are priorities.

Water issues will be staggered across the season. Handapanagala (Feeder Canal, Left Bank, and Right Bank) begins first on 26 September, while Kaudulla Lower begins last on 14 November. Most systems close their water issues between mid-January and mid-to-late February. Kaudulla Lower is the last to close on 6 March 2027. 

The largest allocations are as follows:

• Ulhitiya/Rathkinda: 22,801 hectares, from 25 October
• Maduru Oya: 21,416 hectares, from 4 November
• Kala Wewa Right Canal: 14,007 hectares, from 15 October
• Udawalawe Right Canal: 12,094 hectares, from 5 October
• Udawalawe Left Canal: 11,162 hectares, from 5 October
• Lunugamwehera (Left Bank and Right Bank): 10,728 hectares, from 20 October
• Parakrama Samudra: 10,365 hectares, from 1 November

According to the secretariat, staggering the start dates manages reservoir storage capacities and operational priorities across the network.

The major rice-producing systems of Parakrama Samudra, Minneriya, and Maduru Oya are set for 100% paddy cultivation. Elsewhere, diversification targets are substantial:

• Kanthale Lift Scheme: 80% other crops (2,429 ha) and 20% paddy (607 ha) – the highest diversification target
• Udawalawe Left Canal: 60% sugar cane and other crops (6,697 ha)
• Neelabemma: 55% other crops (380 ha)
• Udawalawe Right Canal: 35% sugar cane and other crops (4,233 ha)
• Kala Wewa (Left Canal, Right Canal, Yodha Ela): 20% other crops
• Usgala Siyambalangamuwa: 20% other crops
• Hurulu Wewa Feeder Canal: 20% other crops
• Rajanganaya: 15% other crops (1,010 ha)

The seasonal directive requires farmers to utilise early season rainfall for land preparation so that total irrigation water usage is restricted to a three-month window using 3.5-month paddy varieties. Efficient land preparation is essential to ensure crops do not face water shortages prior to harvest.

The secretariat further warned that there was no provision for extending issues beyond the calendar dates. Longer-aged varieties or delayed tilling would push crops into their critical reproductive stage after the water ends, leading to crop failure.

A wetter start, a drier end

The calendar has been drawn up against increasingly firm international warnings. 

On 28 August, the United Nations (UN) Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), UN Women, World Food Programme (WFP) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) jointly produced ‘Asia and the Pacific: Snapshot of El Niño and Middle East Crisis’. The UN Sri Lanka website published it on 31 August. 

The assessment warned that the developing El Niño could become very strong, possibly exceptional, and could continue well into 2027. It placed Sri Lanka in Tier 2, ‘elevated concern’. Countries were classified using four indicators: the September–November rainfall outlook against agricultural calendars; exposure to food, fuel, and fertiliser pressures; existing food insecurity and humanitarian needs; and national capacity to cope with shocks. 

For Sri Lanka, the assessment pointed to a wetter-than-average signal from October, coinciding with the second inter-monsoon in October and November and followed by the northeast monsoon from December to February. It noted that rainfall in the second inter-monsoon was widespread and could become locally intense. It also said that the Indian Ocean Dipole would matter, particularly if it moved into a positive phase. 

The WMO’s El Niño/La Niña Update of 3 September said that El Niño had been firmly established by mid-August and was expected to intensify. The update gave a near 100% probability that it would persist through September–November 2026 and December 2026–February 2027. It expects very strong intensity before a peak towards the end of the year. 

The organisation added that the intensity of El Niño did not automatically determine how severe its effects would be in any individual country. 

The FAO has separately forecast below-normal rainfall through the current monsoon season, followed by above-normal rainfall from October. It said that this raised the risk of both drought and subsequent flooding for the Maha and Yala seasons. 

Director General of Agriculture Dr. Thushara Wickramaarachchi said that meteorological forecasts indicated strong second inter-monsoon rains in October and November, followed by a pronounced dry spell around January and February. Forecasts of this nature draw on 20–30 years of historical data, analysed by the Department of Meteorology and Mahaweli authorities. The data allows them to map localised rainfall shifts in areas such as Mannar, Anuradhapura, and Polonnaruwa.

Lessons from past cycles

Eng. Dhanapala said that El Niño was a documented, recurring pattern rather than an unexpected disruption, citing the cycles of 1972/’73, 1977/’78, 1982/’83, 1997/’98, and 2015/’16. In Sri Lanka, he said, the pattern typically brought heavier rainfall in October and November, followed by a sharp decline from December through April. 

He further noted that the wet zone received roughly 6,500 mm of rainfall over a two-year cycle, while the dry zone received about half that volume. In some El Niño years, he said, cumulative rainfall in the dry zone had fallen below 100 mm across an entire 10–11-month period. 

Dhanapala’s response was to move the calendar forward. “If we start land preparation and planting early using the initial monsoon rains, we can save a significant amount of reservoir water for the drier periods,” he said. 

He added that the secretariat had previously advanced schedules by a month to a month and a half in the Walawe system, starting in mid-March instead of late April, and by a month in the Kala Wewa system, starting in April instead of May. According to Dhanapala, this will preserve reservoir levels and secure yields. He further stated that early seasonal planning meant current Mahaweli reservoir levels were in a significantly stronger position than during the 2015/’16 El Niño. 

Completing the Maha season by mid-March, he explained, would allow farmers to use April and May rainfall for Yala land preparation. He said that with growing awareness, farmer organisations now proactively requested water by late September rather than October to make the most of early monsoon rain.

The minor tanks

Dhanapala distinguished between the integrated Mahaweli network and the rest of the country’s irrigation. 

The Mahaweli system connects the wet, intermediate, and dry zones and can transfer water between basins, sustaining 100% seasonal cropping intensity. Major reservoirs under the Irrigation Department, such as Padaviya, Senanayake Samudraya, and Hurulu Wewa, typically maintain an annual cropping intensity of 130–150%. 

The minor tank systems under the Department of Agrarian Development cover more than 750,000 acres and depend entirely on local rainfall. Dhanapala warned that farmers in these systems who delayed planting into late November or December risked running out of water during critical growth stages in January and February. He therefore urged them to begin land preparation with the first rains.

Competing claims on water

The secretariat allocates water across agriculture, drinking water schemes, hydropower, and environmental flows. 

According to Dhanapala, hydropower supplies 25–30% of the national grid, with monthly releases targeting around 420 GWh. He said that as solar generation expanded, water could increasingly shift from power generation towards agriculture and drinking supply. 

During droughts, releases are also maintained along the Mahaweli riverbed so that wild animals have water, reducing human-elephant conflict in nearby villages. Allocation decisions are finalised at weekly Friday meetings of the Water Management Secretariat and at seasonal conferences. 

Dhanapala further stated that Sri Lanka did not face an absolute water deficit, but rather a seasonal infrastructure limitation. Around 1,070 million cubic metres (MCM) of spill is unused from the Minipe Anicut each year, alongside approximately 200 MCM from the Kala Wewa system and around 275 MCM from Udawalawe. Rajanganaya overflows at four times its storage capacity. 

He said that northern and eastern canal extensions were vital to divert this surplus to water-scarce areas.

What the Yala season showed

Dr. Wickramaarachchi noted that Sri Lanka had entered El Niño conditions in mid-July. However, he added that the impact on the Yala paddy crop was significantly less severe than headlines had suggested. Most fields had reached maturity or harvest before the dry spell intensified in July and August. According to the department’s Crop Resources Optimising Operations Through Precise Information Exchange (CROPIX) monitoring system, complete crop loss was verified across only about 1,000 hectares, mainly in tail-end and late-sown areas. 

“It is crucial not to confuse the localised drinking water shortages people face with widespread damage to national agriculture. While well levels dropped and distribution trucks were dispatched in certain areas, our primary paddy crop was already secured at harvest, maintaining overall national yield,” he said. 

For the Maha season, the department has advised the following: 

• Early sowing: Complete sowing before 15 or 25 October, depending on regional advisories, so crops ripen during the January–February dry spell. 
• Short-duration varieties: Use short-duration (3–3.5-month) and drought-tolerant varieties.
• Flood-prone areas: Plant short-duration varieties immediately after flash floods recede.
• Dry sowing: Use traditional Kekulam dry sowing, as practised in Kurunegala, where seeds germinate with the first monsoon showers. 

Dr. Wickramaarachchi said standard paddy farming used 5–6 acre-feet of water per acre, against a crop requirement of 2.5–3 acre-feet. According to him, Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) can cut farm water consumption by 30%, and combining it with the parachute planting method saves a further 15%. Dhanapala similarly recommended feeding plots directly from field channels rather than flooding from plot to plot. 

Dr. Wickramaarachchi also described the role of the media. He estimated that around 3–4% of farmers were rapid adopters of advice and 10–15% were resistant to change. The middle majority of 80–85%, he said, decided based on their neighbours, officers’ advisories, and media reports.

Food, fuel and fertiliser

The UN assessment described cascading pressures on food, fuel, and fertiliser linked to the Middle East crisis. For Sri Lanka, it put diesel and petrol prices at around 44% and 41%, respectively, above pre-crisis levels, with headline consumer prices up by around 6%. It noted the country’s exposure to imported fertiliser and wheat markets, saying that elevated fertiliser prices in 2026 had added pressure on agriculture. 

The FAO cautioned that Sri Lanka lacked an adequate buffer against the failure of a major season. It warned that a significant loss of Maha or Yala production could quickly drive up rice prices and import requirements. 

Reflecting on past policy shifts, Dr. Wickramaarachchi said that abrupt mandates had previously created uncertainty among farmers. He said that the department’s official recommendation was to use organic fertiliser as a supplement to chemical fertiliser, not as a complete replacement. He added that farmers hesitated to cultivate if they did not see seed and fertiliser stocks available at village centres.

Securing supply from abroad

The WFP has estimated that El Niño could push at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity worldwide by the end of 2027. The UN assessment estimates an additional 8.2 million in monitored Asia-Pacific countries alone. It said widespread impacts had not yet materialised, leaving a narrowing window for preparedness. 

Environment Minister Dr. Dammika Patabendi chairs the Special Cabinet Subcommittee on El Niño response measures. He told The Sunday Morning that discussions had been held directly with the Indian Environment Minister on commodity supply and agricultural cooperation. 

“We have made enquiries from other countries regarding certain food items. For example, we discussed these matters directly with the Indian Environment Minister during my meeting with him on 18 September,” he said. The inquiries included sprats. 

“Currently, we are importing items like onions and potatoes, but there are no significant issues affecting harvesting or cultivation in the supplying countries at present,” he said. “This will not be a problem for us until December. Food security will not be compromised until that point,” he added, noting that a full evaluation for the period after December had not yet been finalised. 

The Minister further stated that the Government had directed relevant institutions to begin the first phase of crop cultivation before 15 October. 

“We have prepared a plan for the crops that our country needs to produce and we are informing relevant institutions through official channels about the exact timelines to begin cultivation,” he said. 

Dr. Wickramaarachchi, responding to a query from The Sunday Morning at a media workshop, said that authorities were coordinating with key supplier nations, including India, Pakistan, Thailand, Canada, and Australia, while monitoring conditions there. Lentils, for instance, are imported from Canada and Australia. Furthermore, the Food Security Committee at the Presidential Secretariat meets twice a month to evaluate external risks to four commodities: dhal, sprats, potatoes, and onions.

Data, diversification and seed

Dhanapala said that crop damage figures from the Department of Agrarian Services and irrigation authorities had differed in the past. This was because the Department of Agrarian Services tracked acreage through fertiliser subsidy registers, which omitted unregistered plots. 

He added that the Government was building a unified digital platform with the FAO to integrate data from the Mahaweli Authority, Irrigation Department, and Department of Agrarian Services, with ground verification by village-level officers. 

Dhanapala further placed the national Maha target at 830,000–831,000 hectares, adding that the Yala outlook would depend on rainfall towards the end of the wet cycle. He said that domestic rice supply was sufficient, with surplus directed to animal feed and ethanol, and argued for moving upper paddy lands to less water-intensive, high-value crops. 

“Government policy and agricultural strategy must prioritise diversifying upper paddy fields to crops that consume less water,” he said. 

On seed, he stated that the Department of Agriculture had bred more than 120 improved varieties. Farmers produce much of their own seed paddy and foreign dependency is limited to certain hill-country hybrid vegetables, big onions, and hybrid maize. He recommended expanding private seed production under strict State oversight.

Back to the calendar

The decisions of 18 September now give farmers in each Mahaweli system a fixed date for their first water, a three-week window to prepare their land, and a firm end date for water issues. 

The secretariat’s directive stated that the season’s success rested on shared responsibility between the Mahaweli Authority and the farming community, as well as on adhering to that calendar.