In an increasingly turbulent world, with established international order, rules and norms under strain, a small archipelago in the South Indian Ocean has the power to influence geopolitics of the region. Many in Sri Lanka follow the developments of the region, but often overlook one of our neighbours, the Chagos Archipelago. The island chain, particularly the island of Diego Garcia, is of strategic importance. 

A Colonial British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT), one of the 14 overseas territories of the United Kingdom, Chagos Archipelago’s sovereignty is now under dispute by Mauritius. Like Sri Lanka, the Chagos Archipelago and the Island of Diego Garcia is a victim of location and geopolitics. Geography establishes the physical domain and often shapes political decisions, economic policies, and even impacts social changes. Similarly for nations, geography often acts as one of the most significant determinants influencing international politics. It would be prudent for Sri Lankans to watch closely what is transpiring in our neighbourhood, and especially that of littoral states which share similar challenges as we do.

The importance of the Diago Garcia Island, which was identified by the British and Americans during the early stages of the Cold War, has remained unchanged. In fact today, with concerns over ‘strategic tilts’ and the increasing ‘encroachment’ of China into the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), has reaffirmed the strategic importance of the airfield, port (deep water), resources and intelligence capacity of the Chagos Archipelago to the United States. This is why, despite pitiful efforts by the United Kingdom to continue denying the rights of the Chagossian population, who were moved out of the way from their native homes to make way for the colossal UK-USA war machine of the 1960’s and 1970, also despite rulings by multiple courts and institutions of justice, the United States and UK continue to pursue strategic reach, posturing and flexibility over the rights of those who the archipelago belongs to. 

Following a lengthy battle, in 2024, the UK formally agreed to transfer sovereignty of the Archipelago to Mauritius. However, the UK and Mauritius reached a historic agreement to secure operations of the strategic military base, which remains strategically vital for both UK and US.

However, the evolving sovereignty status of the Chagos Archipelago — particularly Diego Garcia which is now under Mauritian sovereignty – will likely pose challenges and opportunities for the US in the Indian Ocean. With growing links to China, steadfast links with India, and a history of non-alignment, how Mauritius navigates the coming years, will likely impact how and what the US and UK can do with the strategically important piece of real estate that is vital for power projection in the IOR and beyond. China is also increasingly seeking forward basing options for the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and other forces in the IOR, with facilities and port access already secured in Djibouti, while potential basing options within the Bay of Bengal has raised alarm among the QUAD membership and others. India has also been steadily growing their forward basing capacity around the IOR. With vital supply chains – shipping lines laid across the IOR, regional and extra-regional powers are determined to ensure their supply chains are not disrupted by others, while seeking the ability to disrupt the supply chains of opponents if the need arises. Small littoral States in the IOR like Mauritius, Sri Lanka and the Maldives find themselves at the centre of this competition.

To counter growing Chinese inroads into the IOR and to possibly prevent China from gaining a foothold in the Chagos Archipelago the US and UK may consider re-negotiating a long-term security and defence partnership with Mauritius, backed up with generous economic incentives. They may also use the growing defence and economic relationship with India to influence a positive outcome for them. Eitherway, the Chagos Archipelago will likely face a cross road when the current agreement with the UK and US comes to term. Small littoral States like us, should be observant and learn lessons which may one day aid us in sustaining our national interests and sovereignty.