The global order is currently defined by a profound and turbulent transition that mirrors a tectonic shift. For decades, the international financial and political architecture operated under a unipolar shadow where a single centre of power issued instructions that the rest of the planet was expected to follow. Today, that shadow is receding, replaced by a multipolar reality where the Global South is finally asserting its economic and political agency. For a small island nation like Sri Lanka, sitting at the nexus of the Indian Ocean and surrounded by regional giants, the challenge is no longer merely about surviving these shifts, but actively positioning itself to thrive within them.
This transition is not a peaceful handover of power. It is a period fraught with what Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko described during his recent visit to Colombo as ‘political earthquakes’. The current conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran is perhaps the most violent manifestation of this turbulence. For Sri Lanka, the question is no longer whether we can remain neutral, but how we can remain sovereign without being consumed by the fallout of these global clashes.
The primary lesson for 2026 is the urgent necessity of strategic autonomy. This concept, echoed by leaders ranging from the Kremlin to the Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, suggests that middle and small powers must stop viewing themselves as spectators to history. Carney recently warned that the old US-led order is breaking and that nostalgia for the past is not a strategy. We cannot afford to be dependent on what Rudenko called the ‘window of possibility’ opened or closed by the White House.
Our energy policy is the most immediate test of this autonomy. The current global instability has exposed the extreme vulnerability of relying on spot-market trades for oil and gas. Such a hand-to-mouth approach leaves the national economy at the mercy of sudden supply shocks and the shifting sanctions regimes of distant powers. Rudenko noted that if nations are eager to maintain sustainability, they should think deeper about building sovereign energy policies based on the ‘long-term context’ rather than ‘spot trade’.
True sustainability requires a shift toward these long-term sovereign deals. By securing multi-year energy contracts that operate outside the volatile spot market, Sri Lanka can insulate its domestic economy from global energy shocks. This is not about choosing one bloc over another; it is about ensuring that the lights stay on and the factories keep running regardless of decisions made in Washington or Moscow.
The weaponisation of global finance has accelerated a trend that small States can no longer ignore: de-dollarisation. According to Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister, the share of the US Dollar in world trade has plummeted from nearly 67% to approximately 40% in recent years as nations seek to shield their economies from secondary sanctions. Rudenko highlighted this as a clear trend, noting that Russia and China already settle almost all their trade in Yuan or Rubles, while India aggressively pursues the Rupee.
For Sri Lanka, diversifying currency reserves is a mechanical necessity for survival. Integrating regional currencies into our trade settlement systems is a pragmatic hedge against exchange rate volatility. Rudenko suggested that if there is a ‘desire and a will’, flexible means can be found to address these issues, benefiting both trade and tourism. Establishing such systems allows the island to maintain economic momentum even when traditional Western clearing systems become bogged down by geopolitical friction.
On the diplomatic stage, Sri Lanka must join the voices demanding a fundamental reform of the United Nations Security Council. The current structure, a relic of 1945, no longer reflects the reality of the 21st century. A council that does not provide a permanent, decisive voice to the giants of the Global South lacks the legitimacy to manage modern crises. We must also advocate for ‘softer’ international organisations. Rudenko argued that future global bodies should act without ‘imposing orders on others’, specifically avoiding NATO-like rigid structures.
Sri Lanka is not merely a small island at the mercy of the waves. Our geographic position gives us immense strategic leverage, but that leverage is wasted if we remain tethered to an evaporating unipolar status quo. If we have the collective will to diversify our financial dependencies and secure our energy futures through sovereign agreements, we can navigate the multipolar gale. Our future depends on being a partner to many, but a servant to none. In this changing world, the only true security lies in the sovereign power to choose our own path.