While warnings from international agencies about the economic and social impact of Cyclone Ditwah have been stark, the true impact is yet to unfold.
For instance, the Food and Agriculture Organization, noting that the cyclone struck when farmers had just planted or were in the process of planting the 2026 Maha main season paddy crop, notes that about 20% of the total sowings of the 2026 Maha season cultivations were partially damaged or entirely lost, along with significant losses for important cash crops such as maize, vegetables, big onions, and green gram.
Livelihood losses are also evident, given that an estimated 227,000 farmers, primarily smallholder rice producers engaged in subsistence agriculture, were affected by the cyclone. Losses to the livestock and fishery sectors are also expected to reduce the availability of sources of animal proteins in affected areas and undermine key livelihood assets for fishing and livestock rearing households.
Even the Government’s Joint Rapid Needs Assessment Phase II of 2 December 2025 notes the threat to food security in affected areas as a result of livelihood disruption, widespread displacement, and market access constraints, with nearly four in 10 households (39%) not consuming adequate diets.
Seven in 10 households are relying on less preferred/nutritious food while 32% purchased food on credit. Meanwhile, over half of the surveyed households (55%) report a small reduction in income, while 6% report a reduction of over half their usual income.
Further, the destruction of productive capital has raised a risk of pushing affected families into chronic indebtedness, with cash being the top immediate need due to households having already begun resorting to high‑interest loans and distress sales.
Perspective of humanitarian orgs.
Sarvodaya, which is working at the grassroots level among affected communities, also acknowledges in its economic recovery strategy that the impacts of Cyclone Ditwah extend beyond physical damage: loss of income for daily wage earners, farmers, producers, fishers, and Micro, Small, and Medium-sized Enterprises (MSMEs); disruption to agricultural production and food systems; damage to small businesses, informal markets, and community infrastructure; and increased vulnerability of women, youth, elderly, and marginalised groups.
Sarvodaya also points out that communities report a high reliance on external assistance, with the majority of households depending on Government support to survive. In addition, affected populations also urgently need cash assistance, tools, and livelihood inputs to restore income-generating activities and move towards sustainable recovery.
Accordingly, the organisation’s six-month structured recovery plan (1 January–30 June) integrates physical recovery, livelihoods, economic empowerment, psychosocial well-being, institutional strengthening, disaster risk reduction, and facilitation of Government recovery support.
“Should resettlement be required, we will have to help these communities because they had to abandon their original homes. It’s very challenging from a sociological perspective as well,” Sarvodaya Shramadana Movement President Dr. Vinya Ariyaratne said, noting that the organisation would be coordinating closely with the Government.
Since mid-December, Sarvodaya has gradually shifted from the emergency response phase to the early recovery and reconstruction phase, with approximately 210 Sarvodaya Shramadana Societies having been affected at different levels by the disaster and about 87 of these being seriously affected.
Describing the situation on the ground, Dr. Ariyaratne said: “It’s quite challenging; we are still unable to get the full assessment of the damage, although there is access now. Assessment is ongoing; out of the 200-odd villages, we have received information from over 100 villages. Notably, we connected some of the unaffected villages with affected villages, in what is called ‘Village to Village – Heart to Heart.’ People-to-people contact is very powerful.”
“Given the economic situation globally and also nationally, the requirement for donations is very high. I’m really concerned because I don’t think we will hit the required targets,” he said. While he noted that donations were still flowing in, he pointed out that “large-scale recovery and reconstruction will require massive funding,” which posed uncertainties given the prevailing economic situation.
Pointing to the Government’s pledges of support for MSMEs, he said: “As long as they can get them off the ground soon it will also help the economy. Civil society organisations, with the limited funds we have, are using these funds to help revive small businesses. We are also now asking for medium-term support and for donors who can provide support for at least more than a year in reviving small businesses.”
Sarvodaya is currently assisting communities to get their houses cleaned and to restore water supply, in addition to helping people to secure the relief announced by the Government. “Some people didn’t know that this facility was available because they were not connected to the communications,” Dr. Ariyaratne noted.
Growth vs. stability
Meanwhile, according to University of Peradeniya (UOP) Department of Economics and Statistics Prof. Wasantha Athukorala, while the disaster will not impact economic stability, growth is a different story altogether.
“When you look at economic stability, there are certain variables. Here, the most important indicator of economic stability is whether International Monetary Fund (IMF) targets can be achieved. Last year, GDP growth was 4.8% in the first quarter, 4.9% in the second quarter, and 5.4% in the third quarter, and possibly somewhat lower in the last quarter.
“This year, in the first quarter, agricultural sector performance in particular will be lower. However, when it comes to the second and third quarters, we will be able to maintain a state of full recovery. Therefore, IMF targets won’t be a concern,” he explained.
“However, economic growth will be affected. Stability is important, but growth is essential to the country. When there is growth, the direct benefit reaches individuals – stability does not bring direct benefits to ordinary people. Therefore, growth, which is the most important thing, has been affected.”
Prof. Athukorala also highlighted the importance of ensuring that available data captured the ground reality accurately to ensure that support reached areas where it was most needed for recovery.
He noted that the Government first needed to properly identify categories such as vulnerable groups and those who would be affected due to the loss of economic activities in order to provide adequately targeted care. He added that with the World Bank estimating that the disaster had affected 500,000 families, the country had received sufficient relief from foreign countries to support this segment without expending taxpayer funds.
“Not only agricultural sectors, the industrial and service sectors have been significantly affected. A majority of them are small and medium sector enterprises. This will lower the economic performance this year.
“While the Government and Central Bank have announced that they will provide concessionary loans and packages, that is not efficient. What is important is the practical situation and how it is operationalised in Sri Lanka. If you analyse the operational situation, people who are actually affected are not receiving anything,” he observed.
Prof. Athukorala’s warning, therefore, is that without identifying and targeting individuals and businesses in need of relief, recovery will be ineffective.