The worst natural disaster Sri Lanka faced in recent history was the December 2004 tsunami. After that, the next major disaster that struck the country was Cyclone Ditwah on 28 November and the severe floods and landslides that it triggered.
It may take weeks before we know the full details of the extent of death and destruction caused. It is reported that more than 630 people have died so far. The exact number of missing people may never be known, as some villages in the central hill country were buried under the mud completely.
A nationwide disaster
The 2004 tsunami killed about 40,000 Sri Lankans, but it only affected coastal areas. However, Cyclone Ditwah has wreaked havoc across the country. The plights of families perched on the rooftops of their flooded houses in order to save their lives is a stark reminder of the gravity of the situation.
An estimated 2.3 million people – more than half of them women – were living in areas flooded by the cyclone. New geospatial analysis from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) shows that floodwaters from the cyclone inundated more than 1.1 million hectares – almost 20% of the country’s land area – and caused significant damage to homes, infrastructure, and essential services.
“The analysis, which draws from disaster-related data from the Government, provides a nationwide picture of the cyclone’s impact, which is being termed as one of the worst flooding disasters to hit Sri Lanka in decades.
“The floodwaters reached nearly 720,000 buildings in the country. Over 16,000 km of roads, enough to circle the island’s coastline more than 12 times, were exposed to flooding. Similarly, over 278 km of railway tracks and 480 bridges were located in the flooded areas. The exposed population includes approximately 1.2 million women, 522,000 children, and 263,000 elderly persons,” the UNDP analysis has noted. Over 65,000 power outages and telecommunication failures were also reported, while health services in all 25 districts have been affected.
The destruction of crops in the main agricultural regions is going to create unprecedented food insecurity. The prices of vegetables have risen sharply. Prices of essential commodities will continue to rise. People who depend on agriculture for their livelihood are at risk of being thrown into severe debt burden and poverty.
According to data released by the Disaster Management Centre (DMC) recently, 2,082,195 people from 586,000 families have been affected. A total of 4,164 houses were completely damaged and 67,505 houses partially damaged. More details will be revealed in the coming days as rescue operations continue.
Newly appointed Commissioner General of Essential Services Prabath Chandrakeerthi said that the economic loss from Cyclone Ditwah was estimated to be around $ 6–7 billion, three times more than the economic loss from the tsunami. The complete economic loss would be assessed soon to formulate a post-disaster economic recovery plan, he added.
A steady flow of int’l assistance
Sri Lanka is bracing for a period of severe crisis. The relative economic stability resulting from International Monetary Fund (IMF)-assisted restructuring measures following the 2022 economic downturn has been shaken.
The international community continues to offer emergency assistance. Accordingly, aid has surged from the US, the UK, China, Japan, and other nations.
In line with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Neighbourhood First policy and the tradition of being first responder whenever there is a disaster in Sri Lanka, India has now launched a massive rescue and relief operation called ‘Sagar Bandhu’ (friend across the ocean).
Some observers say that humanitarian assistance is steadily flowing in from foreign partners, reflecting Sri Lanka’s geo-strategic significance. India and Pakistan are archrivals, yet both countries rushed to help Sri Lanka in the aftermath of the disaster.
Warnings unheeded
President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has announced a substantial amount of funds as emergency relief to the affected people. But the Government has come under severe criticism for not taking necessary precautions to mitigate the effects of the cyclone, despite warnings about the impending storm.
In a private TV programme on 12 November, Department of Meteorology Director General Athula Karunanayake warned of the natural disaster that Sri Lanka was about to face. The programme which focused exclusively on climate was also attended by DMC Director General Maj. Gen. (Retd) Sampath Kotuwegoda and Imaya Ariyarathna, an expert from the National Building Research Organisation (NBRO).
The Department of Meteorology, which comes under the Ministry of Defence, works closely with the DMC and the President is the Minister of Defence. The question arises as to why the Department of Meteorology and the DMC did not bring the natural disaster risk to the attention of the President officially well in advance.
A US weather agency and the BBC both warned on 12 November that a cyclone could affect Sri Lanka, while Al Jazeera issued a similar prediction on 14 November. However, the Department of Meteorology and the Geological Survey and Mines Bureau issued red alerts only on 26 November.
After the cyclone struck and all the damage had occurred, a disaster committee was appointed. It was only once deaths had been reported that a circular was issued on 28 November instructing divisional secretaries to report to work. A disaster management director was appointed on the evening of 29 November.
A natural disaster cannot be prevented, but the dangers that arise from it can be controlled. For that, a basic plan of preparedness is essential. There was more than ample time, yet the Government did not take action. The President even declared a State of Emergency only after the Leader of the Opposition insisted on it in Parliament.
Opposition’s opportunism
Another important question is why, despite the warnings, the Government was not alerted to the impending danger by Opposition parties, which blame the Government for its failure to take pre-emptive measures only in the aftermath of the deaths and destruction.
When the country was flooded, Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa asked the Government to hand over power to him if it could not handle the situation. He urged the Government to withdraw the 2026 Budget, which had been debated and passed in Parliament over the course of the past month, and present a new one instead. The IMF’s current programme could no longer be implemented, he argued.
Meanwhile, Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) National Organiser and Parliamentarian Namal Rajapaksa demanded that the Speaker appoint a special Parliamentary Select Committee to investigate allegations that the Government had failed to take precautionary measures against the cyclone.
Addressing Parliament on the final day of the Budget debate, Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) Leader Rauff Hakeem called on the Government to seek the advice of former presidents on how to get assistance from the international community and formulate plans to rescue the country from the effects of the natural disaster.
One is at a loss to understand on what basis Hakeem is advising the Government to consult them when there is no precedent of any of our former presidents having taken concrete steps to mitigate the consequences of any previous natural disaster.
A former President faced a court case alleging that he had deposited funds received from abroad to provide relief to tsunami victims in his bank account. It would be pertinent to recall that a former Chief Justice, who had discharged him from the case, had publicly apologised at a later stage for the judgment he had delivered.
Another former President is still being blamed for not taking adequate security measures to prevent the Easter Sunday bombings of 2019 which killed more than 250 people, despite receiving intelligence warnings in advance from foreign countries. His successor was forced to flee the country following a popular uprising against misrule and economic collapse. So much for the capabilities of our former presidents.
United National Party (UNP) Leader and former President Ranil Wickremesinghe has said that legal action could be taken against against Executive action, or inaction, that violates the fundamental rights of citizens, arguing that the failure to act by the President, Prime Minister, and Cabinet to avert the recent floods is a violation of the Constitution, which guarantees people the right to life.
According to his argument, legal action can be taken against all former presidents and prime ministers of Sri Lanka.
It is noteworthy that the announcement from the leaders of Opposition parties on cooperating in rescuing the country from the crisis is based on a belief that the leaders of the National People’s Power (NPP) Government have no experience or ability in governance.
The Opposition parties should cooperate fully to rescue the people of the country from the crisis rather than floating in the illusion that the people will throw the Government out any time soon.
Stark reminders
Meanwhile, the Government is receiving far more support and assistance from the international community than Opposition leaders expected. The IMF has announced that it will explore providing additional support beyond the existing agreement. Several international organisations have also pledged to help.
Even though calls to revisit the ongoing IMF programme, which critics say imposes punishing austerity, are growing louder, there are no signs yet that the Government may veer from the programme. It cannot afford such a move.
In fact, the Government has sought a $ 200 million Rapid Financing Instrument from the fund. An IMF spokesman confirmed that Sri Lanka’s request for emergency financing would take precedence over the scheduled fifth review of the ongoing Extended Fund Facility (EFF).
In a statement last week, over 70 civil society groups and activists across Sri Lanka said that the IMF controlling Government spending not only restricted the ability of the latter to respond to the ongoing humanitarian crisis, but also severely impeded investment in infrastructure, recuperating livelihoods, and adapting to further climate change impacts.
Recovering from the effects of the natural disaster and rebuilding the economy is not going to be easy. On the economic front, nature’s fury has compounded the challenges already in existence for the Government.
Cyclone Ditwah has once again demonstrated the enormous threat that climate change poses to Sri Lanka’s socioeconomic development. Floods and mudslides this time around have reminded us that Sri Lanka continues to be vulnerable to unexpected climatic events.
The successive droughts and floods that have hit us regularly in recent years are a stark reminder of the fact that Sri Lanka is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change. There is no point in giving advice after a disaster has occurred. It is easy to be wise after events.
Today’s situation warrants commitment and cooperation from all stakeholders across the political spectrum to rescue the country from the abyss it has fallen into.
(The writer is a senior journalist based in Colombo)
(The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the official position of this publication)