The South Asian region is once again closer to the risk of open conflict between States following the cowardly terrorist attack on civilian soft targets that killed 26 people in the tourist town of Pahalgam in the disputed region Kashmir.
The incident, one of the worst attacks in Kashmir in recent times, shocked the region and has clearly enraged many in India, with cries for a strong response being echoed. There is no doubt that the Indian Government is under pressure to act. Indian Premier Narendra Modi has stated that “India will identify, track and punish every terrorist, their handlers and their backers. We will pursue them to the end of the earth. India’s spirit will never be broken by terrorism.”
Sri Lanka, having suffered at the hands of terrorist and extremists, both homegrown, and foreign-trained and equipped, feel the pain and anguish that resonates in India, following the Pahalgam massacre. No peace-loving democratic nation which abides by international law would employ terrorism as a tool of State-craft or foreign policy. Such terrorist actions, irrespective of historical grievances or balance of power, can be justified. However, given the impact on regional safety and security, it’s in everyone’s interest that a response from India be measured and proportionate.
The Indian Foreign Ministry on Wednesday said it would suspend a key water-sharing treaty with Pakistan (which Pakistan had earlier warned may amount to a declaration of war) and close a key border crossing as part of a suite of diplomatic measures against its neighbour. "The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 will be held in abeyance with immediate effect, until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism," Indian Foreign Secretary Misri told the media. Pakistan is heavily dependent on the water from the Indus River and its tributaries for agriculture and drinking water. The treaty's suspension could mean Pakistan faces severe water shortages. He also said India would close the mainland border, at Attari-Wagah, “with immediate effect." India also moved to declare that Pakistani nationals would not be allowed to travel to India under a regional visa exemption scheme, and that Pakistani nationals in India travelling as part of it, have 48 hours to leave the country. There have also been tit-for-tat notifications of declaring diplomat’s persona non grata from each other’s capital cities. Let us hope that the action both New Delhi and Islamabad take in the coming days and weeks, will not lead to escalation of hostilities, and the region not descend into conflict.
There are also some lessons from the attack which Sri Lanka can draw from; firstly, like in the lead up to the devastating 2019 Easter Sunday bombing on home soil, it has been observed that the security apparatus in India, more specifically in the Jammu and Kashmir territory has become complacent. Both Sri Lanka in 2019, and Jammu and Kashmir authorities seem to have not considered that tourists may be targeted in a terrorist/extremist attack. Secondly, the security apparatus in Jammu and Kashmir had also neglected to deploy adequate security for local tourist hotspots. Indian media and security analysts claim that a fiery speech by a senior Pakistani Army officer on the other side of the border may have caused the terrorist to act. Why was security not increased following the speech? In Sri Lanka, despite multiple reports of extremism on the rise, and many being indoctrinated, and calls to arms being made by Zaharan and Co., law enforcement, and at times the AG’s Department dragged its feet on acting.
It should also be noted that, despite occasional focus on security and defence by the general public, national security is a constant process, and eternal vigilance, effective resilience and deterrence are the norms of keeping a State and its population safe. This is why, national security cannot only be left to the law makers and the government to carry out, it needs a whole-of-nation approach, and national security policy should not be politicised nor conveniently forgotten till the next ‘security incident’ occurs.
India, which has a robust security policy – which often transcends political divides, and has massive capacity and capabilities compared to Sri Lanka, has failed to prevent the Pahalgam massacre. No system is perfect, and when it fails, there should be a review, lessons learned and measures adopted. There is no doubt, India will do that. The question is, has Sri Lanka done so? Or are we still squabbling amongst ourselves, until the next crisis comes?