• Will SL see a rise in fertility rates as the economy improves?
• Experts express concern about impact on labour force, ageing population
• Need for social care, social assistance, social insurance, more workplace inclusivity stressed 

Even as Sri Lanka is undergoing a demographic shift characterised by a decline in fertility, the policy interventions to deal with a potential fallout remains urgent.

While a recent United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) State of World Population 2025 report titled ‘The Real Fertility Crisis’ underscores that global fertility rates are declining, Sri Lanka’s fertility rate has also dropped to 1.9 children per woman.

With the report warning that this could lead to communities with larger populations of older persons, smaller shares of young people, and, possibly, smaller workforces, the implications for Sri Lanka remain stark.

A temporary decline

The decline in fertility, mortality decline, and resultant increase in life expectancy, accompanied by the socio-economic developments of the country, are contributing to the population ageing taking place in Sri Lanka. 

Nevertheless, speaking to The Sunday Morning, University of Colombo (UOC) Professor Emeritus of Demography Lakshman Dissanayake noted that while fertility had declined to below replacement levels subsequent to the pandemic, it was a temporary drop and not a cause for panic.

Addressing the causes for this, he noted: “We experienced two major events recently during the past few years. One is the Covid-19 pandemic, which made couples postpone their procreation and marriages. This was followed by an economic crisis, which led to a significant decline in the number of births in our country.

“Our fertility was on the decline. There is no question about it. We observed higher fertility – above replacement-level fertility – from the 2012 census data. When the Covid-19 pandemic occurred, it fell to below replacement-level fertility.”

Moreover, according to Department of Census and Statistics data, the mid-year population in 2024 decreased by 120,555 compared to the previous year, because of the decrease in births and the increase in departures from the country. The number of registered births from July 2023 to June 2024 was reported at 228,091, showcasing a steady decline from the early 2010s, which saw 361,800 births for the period from July 2013 to June 2014.

According to the UNFPA survey responses, the greatest barrier to achievement of fertility goals remains economic, with 39% reporting that financial limitations were a factor that had affected or would affect their ability to realise their desired family size. The second most commonly reported factor, at 21%, was unemployment or job insecurity. The third, at 19%, was housing concerns, such as lack of space or high cost.

About one in four (24%) respondents cited health issues (including difficulty conceiving, barriers to fertility or pregnancy care, and general poor health). Nearly one in five (19%) said fears about the future – climate change, environmental degradation, wars, pandemics, or similar – would lead or had led them to have fewer children than desired.

The study also found that 21% reported that improvement in economic conditions would likely lead to having more children.

Prof. Dissanayake highlighted that this was not limited to Sri Lanka, being a global phenomenon. In Sri Lanka’s case, “both the Covid-19 pandemic and the economic crisis that followed had a greater impact on couples in the reproductive age span, leading them to adjust their fertility behaviour. However, it’s not a permanent thing – it’s a tempo effect, which means it is a temporary situation, where couples adjust their fertility behaviour during certain events like disasters. This can be seen everywhere in any society in the world.

“People adjust their fertility behaviour during certain events, but when a country returns to normalcy, people will also adjust their behaviour [again] because there is a fertility norm. Therefore, couples will resume their fertility behaviour to the same level we observed earlier, before the pandemic and the economic crisis.”

He further predicted that there would be an upsurge in the fertility rate following this. “When the country returns to normalcy towards the end of 2025, 2026, or 2027, you will see another upsurge. It will go a little above 2.1. However, after a few years it will go back to the same declining trend that we observed during the pre-pandemic period.”

Demographic challenges

Fewer births added to the population at least for the next five years amidst the fertility decline will mean fewer children in that group, which has repercussions for the country both economically and socially.

“The declining fertility means the proportion of younger people in the labour force will diminish gradually. The children who are born during the high-fertility period will move upwards and then they will be stepping into the elderly group of 60-plus,” Prof. Dissanayake noted. 

When the proportion of younger people is less, this will have a greater impact on those who are over 60 years.

Prof. Dissanayake has estimated that the Sri Lankan population will grow older at an accelerated rate after 2032, with the number of older persons (60+ years of age) expected to increase to over five million in 2037. This is likely to be a challenge given the lower proportion of younger people due to the fertility decline. 

“We need a healthy, productive labour force workforce. Moreover, female labour force participation is around 35-37%, which is not an acceptable limit. Women are prevented from entering the labour force because the majority of them are caring for children, parents, parents-in-laws, and even husbands. But we don’t have a care economy, because we don’t have a care sector. We have to develop that sector,” he noted, especially given the projected increase in older people in the coming years.

Policy changes

Addressing policy changes that need to take place in order to handle this demographic shift, Prof. Dissanayake said: “Older people will require both home-based care and institutional care, as well as strong social protection strategies.”

Accordingly, they need social care, social assistance, and social insurance, as well as labour market and productive inclusion. “These four pillars are very important to develop a proper social protection strategy,” he added.

“In preparing for a larger proportion of older people in the future, we have to get ready for that now itself, rather than waiting until it happens. 

“The current labour force will be entering the elderly stage gradually. Therefore, the Government has to create decent employment opportunities, improve their saving capacities, etc. If you do that, then by the time they retire, they will have money in their pocket, which will reduce the burden on the family and the Government.”

Moreover, Prof. Dissanayake pointed out that the central focus of any policy formulation should be on millennials and Gen Z. 

“The people who are responsible for this fertility decline are millennials and Gen Z. Millennials and Gen Z are a special group. They are different to any other generation we have observed over the years. Their expectations are high, they are globally connected, they have their own dreams, they need good employment opportunities, etc.

“That’s the generation that is responsible for this fertility decline, so we need to understand their behavioural pattern. We need to do a lot of research and we need to bring them on board to create or prepare a proper population policy for this country,” he stated.

Moreover, he noted that it would be impossible to prevent Gen Z and millennials migrating in search of better employment opportunities unless the domestic economy improved.

According to Family Health Bureau (FHB) Director of Maternal and Child Health Dr. Chandima Siritunga, who acknowledged that fertility had fallen below replacement level, the FHB is continuing its family planning programmes, which ensures safe and healthy motherhood and childhood.

“The strategies to be taken to increase fertility need to be decided through an overall discussion. The FHB is currently operating on the stance of ensuring all pregnancies are safe and wanted.”

“Given the below-replacement-level fertility, the Government must decide how to use this for the productivity of the country and the direction of the policy decision,” he noted, adding that any targets in this regard and facilities to be provided would have to be considered by the Government.

“Our programmes strive to ensure that all pregnancies are wanted pregnancies, that families have the facilities to have the number of children they desire, that all pregnancies are considered precious, and that all children are considered precious and productive,” he added.

According to Prof. Dissanayake, Sri Lanka has three options to deal with a potential labour shortage due to the current fertility dynamics.

For the group of older people of 60-74 years, known as young-old, whose members, unlike those of previous generations, are active, relatively healthy, and can still engage in work, one suggestion is to extend the retirement age, as is done in other countries.

Prof. Dissanayake noted: “However, it should not be just a blanket suggestion. You need to retain only the productive workers, so there should be some mechanism to measure that. It should also be voluntary, because some might not actually want to stay in the labour market.”

Another suggestion, which he pointed out could create social conflicts as has been seen elsewhere, is immigrant labour. “If there is a shortage in the workforce, countries look for immigrant labour, which is why Sri Lankans find employment elsewhere. Such destination countries look for immigrant labour, but that can create social conflicts.”

The third option is automation; even if the labour force is reduced, automation can be used as a replacement.

Nevertheless, Prof. Dissanayake pointed out that none were optimal outcomes.