As Sri Lanka attempts to convince itself that the worst of the economic crisis is behind it, the country is once again being reminded how fragile recovery can become when public confidence begins to weaken. The steady slide of the rupee, rising electricity tariffs, warnings of future fuel price hikes, and fresh allegations of shortages in essential sectors are steadily eroding the political breathing space that President Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) and his Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led National People’s Power (NPP) Government briefly appeared to enjoy after assuming office in 2024.

For many ordinary citizens, the promises of recovery still remain largely invisible in daily life. Instead, households continue to face higher living costs, shrinking purchasing power, and growing uncertainty about whether the sacrifices demanded over the past two years are truly leading towards stability or simply managing decline more slowly. While macroeconomic indicators may show improvement, political reality is often shaped less by statistics and more by what people experience at the supermarket, fuel station, electricity bill counter, and village marketplace.

For AKD and the JVP/NPP Government, the political challenge is becoming increasingly delicate. The current administration came to power promising not only economic reform, but also a complete break from the political culture that a majority of the citizens blame for the country’s economic collapse in 2022. However, the burden of governing during a painful recovery phase now risks exposing the administration to the very public anger that swept previous governments out of office.

Against this backdrop, the JVP/NPP Government faces the difficult task of maintaining fiscal discipline demanded by international lenders while preventing social frustration from hardening into political resentment. Every tariff increase, every currency fluctuation, and every new warning about subsidies carries consequences far beyond economics. In Sri Lanka, financial policy quickly becomes political psychology.

At the same time, the political atmosphere itself is becoming increasingly restless. Opposition parties are regrouping, corruption probes are intensifying, commissions are becoming battlegrounds of credibility, and familiar political alliances are quietly shifting beneath the surface. 

As pressure builds simultaneously on the economy, governance structures, and political institutions, Colombo’s corridors of power are once again beginning to indicate a familiar mood that is of cautious stability on the surface, but deep uncertainty underneath.

Rupee depreciation

Meanwhile, the quiet depreciation of the Sri Lankan Rupee (LKR), with the US Dollar climbing to its strongest level against the rupee since December 2023, is beginning to unsettle many.

Despite the silence on the side of the authorities over the depreciation of the rupee, the reality inside Colombo’s financial and political circles is far less relaxed. Every few rupees lost against the dollar immediately raises concerns over fuel imports, debt repayments, and the inevitable ripple effect on consumer prices.

As explained by an economist, the problem for the Government is not merely economic, it is political. After spending months promoting stability, reserve growth, and fiscal discipline as proof of recovery, a weakening rupee risks undermining the carefully crafted narrative that the crisis period is firmly in the past.

There is also growing unease over whether the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) is quietly allowing a controlled depreciation to preserve reserves and maintain export competitiveness, while hoping the public does not immediately feel the impact. 

However, Sri Lankans have lived through enough currency shocks to recognise where these trends often lead.

Power politics

Another growing development is the country’s electricity debate that is once again moving beyond economics and into the political arena.

The Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka’s (PUCSL) decision to approve an 18% electricity tariff increase for consumers using more than 180 units, covering the remainder of the second quarter and the entirety of the third quarter of 2026, has reignited public anger over the rising cost of living and the direction of the country’s economic recovery.

The country’s electricity tariffs have now increased by a staggering 43% this year alone. First came the 25% hike earlier in the year. Now, another 18% increase has taken effect. For many consumers, it is evident that there is a continuing transfer of economic pain onto ordinary citizens in the name of recovery.

The Government insists that the increases are unavoidable while officials note that cost-reflective pricing is essential to stabilise the energy sector, satisfy reform commitments, and prevent the State-owned electricity system from collapsing due to unsustainable losses. From a purely financial standpoint, the argument is understandable.

For families already struggling with rising food prices, a weakening rupee, higher taxes, and expensive transportation costs, the latest tariff increase feels less like an economic adjustment and more like another warning that the crisis is far from over.

The recent protest outside the PUCSL Headquarters in Kollupitiya was not simply about electricity bills. It reflected a broader exhaustion that continues to shape post-crisis Sri Lanka that indicates the growing belief among the masses that the burden of economic stabilisation is falling disproportionately on ordinary households while political leaders speak the language of reform from a safer distance.

Demonstrators who gathered outside the commission demanded that tariffs not be increased “under any circumstances”.

It is evident that people are willing to endure hardship only if they believe conditions are gradually improving, but the problem for the Government is that many households do not yet feel that improvement in their daily lives. 

Businesses increase prices, production costs increase, food becomes more expensive, and services become costlier. In a fragile economy like Sri Lanka’s, utility tariffs influence far more than household budgets.

Balancing frustration

Therefore, for President AKD and his JVP/NPP Government, it is now time to face a critical balancing act where it would be important for them to maintain economic discipline while preventing public frustration from turning into wider political resentment.

The Government and energy regulators, however, frame the issue quite differently. They have claimed that the tariff hikes are no longer optional political choices, but structural requirements tied to the country’s broader recovery framework. Sri Lanka’s agreements with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and debt restructuring commitments depend heavily on reducing State sector losses and moving towards cost-reflective pricing mechanisms. The electricity sector sits at the centre of that agenda.

For years, successive governments maintained artificially low electricity prices through subsidies and borrowing, creating enormous financial pressure on the State-owned power sector. After the economic collapse, those distortions became impossible to sustain. The result has been a series of steep tariff revisions that officials argue are necessary to stabilise supply, reduce operational losses, and prevent the electricity system itself from becoming financially unmanageable.

More price hikes

Meanwhile, President AKD last week hinted at more impending price hikes when he stated that fuel prices may have to be increased further due to rising global prices. He noted that the cost of a litre of diesel in Sri Lanka had increased to around Rs. 720.

He made this statement at the special District Coordinating Committee meeting in Nuwara Eliya last week.

However, he pointed out that the Government was currently spending about Rs. 100 per litre in subsidies to provide diesel to the public at Rs. 392 per litre. As a result, the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) is continuing to incur heavy losses, which, he stressed, could not be sustained in the long term.

The President further stated: “In February, our expenditure on fuel imports was $ 98 million. In March, it increased to $ 216 million. In April, it rose to $ 368 million. For May, we estimate that fuel imports will cost us $ 522 million. Compared to February, fuel imports have increased by more than six times. Therefore, we are managing the economy under considerable challenges. 

“According to the CPC, the actual cost of a litre of diesel is around Rs. 720. Yet it is being sold at Rs. 392. The Government bears a subsidy burden of Rs. 100 per litre, meaning the corporation receives only Rs. 492. Even at that level, the corporation continues to suffer major losses. Those losses must eventually be recovered. The Government has already taken over losses amounting to Rs. 84 billion from the CPC due to the poor management of previous governments.”

AKD also noted that the same situation applied to electricity tariffs. “Rising fuel prices have had an impact on electricity costs as well. We will provide some relief there too. Although electricity tariffs increased by 18%, the increase did not affect more than 95% of consumers significantly. For most people, the increase was around 5%. 

“However, we cannot continue to maintain the CPC and the Electricity Board indefinitely through Treasury funding. These institutions must become more efficient. At the same time, other sectors must also be managed in a way that benefits the public,” the President added.

Fertiliser shortage

Amidst the continuing discussion on power and energy, fresh allegations over fertiliser shortages in the country have once again brought the agricultural crisis into the political spotlight, with farmer representatives claiming that even the hometown of President AKD is facing severe shortages despite Government assurances that supplies are available nationwide.

The controversy intensified after Rajarata Podujana Farmers’ Association Chairman K. Wijeweera publicly challenged Government claims regarding fertiliser distribution. Addressing the media, he alleged that farmers in Thambuttegama, the President’s hometown, were unable to purchase fertiliser from local shops. “The Government says fertiliser is available, but there is no fertiliser in any shop even in President Anura’s own village. If that is false, we are prepared to come on our knees and apologise,” Wijeweera further declared.

The remarks have quickly gained political attention, particularly after farmers also directed criticism towards Agriculture Minister K.D. Lalkantha.

Minister Lalkantha, however, made a public statement denying a fertiliser shortage in the country. A few days later, he had criticised some media over their reporting of the Government’s work, especially in the development sector.

However, understanding the growing frustrations among farmers over shortages, Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa has commenced a campaign to visit farmers and engage in one-to-one discussions with them over the issues faced by them and the areas where he could intervene to support them.

One of the key grievances of the farmers is that many members of the incumbent Government hail from farming families and are well aware of the long-standing as well as seasonal issues faced by them, yet have failed to provide solutions.

Turning to the Opposition

The ruling JVP/NPP meanwhile, is also facing criticism over statements by several senior Government and party members that the Government is prepared to accept the support of some individuals in the Opposition. 

Members of the Opposition have hit back saying that the Government should stop criticising the Opposition since it is now evident that the ruling party does not have the experience and experts to carry out the Government’s work, while also making public statements that the Opposition’s claims during elections of the ruling party’s lack of capable individuals have now come true. 

Minister Wasantha Samarasinghe recently stated that capable individuals in the Opposition would soon be brought into the Government and that the Government was prepared to work together with talented people from the Opposition to move the country forward.

Samarasinghe further stated: “As a Government, we have already brought together educated, intelligent, knowledgeable, and practical-minded people in this country. We will continue to bring more people on board. Capable individuals can work together with us. Therefore, if sensible people in the Opposition are willing to work with our proposals and ideas, we will bring those talented individuals into the Government and involve them in our work to take the country forward.”

Samarasinghe’s statement was further endorsed by JVP General Secretary Tilvin Silva when he stated that the current Government had rejected the long-standing practice of filling State sector positions based on political affiliations and was instead working to establish a new political culture focused on merit and competence.

He made these remarks during a television programme, where he discussed changes in public sector recruitment practices under the present administration. Silva said that previous governments distributed positions in State institutions based on party politics but claimed that the current Government had changed that approach.

“We did not come to power to fill all State institutions with people from our party. What we want is to appoint capable and skilled individuals to those positions. We are not going to look at what their political party is,” he said. He further added that under the present Government, appointments to key institutions, including bodies such as the national cricket administration, had been made based on expertise rather than political affiliation.

Silva emphasised that it was a mistake for any government to assume it alone possessed all necessary knowledge, adding that it was the Government’s policy to seek the best available talent in any field, regardless of political background.

A Governor’s resignation

Meanwhile, ‘The Black Box’ learns that a Governor of a key province in the country had submitted his resignation letter to the President.

However, the President had requested him to remain in the post for another 30 days until he finds a suitable replacement. Accordingly, the Governor is expected to remain in office for an additional month.

The Governor, who is a well-known businessman, is said to have decided to step down due to difficulties in being formally involved in managing his business network while holding the post of governor.

The Governor’s reported resignation and the request to extend his tenure come amid ongoing administrative adjustments within provincial governance structures under the current Government.

MR at CIABOC

Amidst these developments, the Government is moving ahead with its anti-corruption agenda with probes being expedited.

It is in such a backdrop that former President Mahinda Rajapaksa (MR) appeared before the Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery or Corruption (CIABOC) on Tuesday (12) to provide a statement in connection with the investigation into the controversial Airbus transaction.

“Not only the Bribery Commission, but we may be summoned to other places as well in the future,” MR said.

A few days prior to MR’s appearance before the CIABOC, Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) members carried out a campaign calling on party members and supporters to gather outside the CIABOC office on Tuesday when MR is being questioned. The SLPP called on people to stand by the leader who ‘saved the nation’.

There was quite a crowd that answered the SLPP’s call. While there were not many people outside the CIABOC when MR went in, there was quite a crowd pushing and shoving against MR’s vehicle when he was leaving the commission after recording his statement.

MR was accompanied by senior lawyers affiliated to the SLPP and his younger brother, former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa (GR) also stood outside the commission office until MR came out.

Meeting MR

Several Opposition leaders meanwhile had visited MR on Monday (11) evening at his private residence in Colombo, prior to his visit to the CIABOC on Tuesday. Among the Opposition members who had visited MR were G.L. Peiris, Rohitha Abeygunawardhana, Asanka Navarathne, Sugeeshwara Bandara, Senal Welgama, and several others.

MR had greeted the Opposition members and started to discuss the controversial Airbus deal probe and other ongoing probes. After discussing the current political developments and the expedited probes on members of former governments, Peiris had said that he and the other Opposition leaders should take their leave since MR needed to rest and prepare for the following day. MR had laughed and said that there was no such special preparation since he had nothing to hide and would answer the questions posed to him by the investigators.

MR had then invited Peiris and everyone to share a meal with him saying that extra food was always prepared at his residence since there were always visitors to see him.

During the meal, the conversation had turned towards an interesting topic – ghosts in the luxury bungalows that were previously occupied by former presidents and ministers. When one Opposition member had asked MR whether he believed in ghosts, he had laughed and said that he didn’t but that he had heard stories from others.

MR had then recounted a story about ghosts at the President’s House in Nuwara Eliya. It was stated that when MR had stayed at the house, a former MP who is now no more had complained of ghosts in his room. The MP had said that he had to sleep on a sofa in the living room since it was difficult for him to sleep in the room that had been assigned to him. Everyone had laughed at the story.

After an entertaining meal, the members of the Opposition had left MR’s residence saying they continued to stand by him.

Namal’s warning

Opposition MP Namal Rajapaksa meanwhile has noted that people are being threatened with death if they fail to fulfil the needs of the Government, referring to the ongoing probes into several key cases. Namal’s comments come after the recent death of former CEO of SriLankan Airlines Kapila Chandrasena, whose death has caused much controversy and raised many questions.

He has also claimed that individuals are now being killed under mysterious circumstances.  Namal had made these remarks while addressing a public gathering held in Hiriyala.

“People are being murdered mysteriously. The law is being manipulated. Threats are being made. They are trying to obtain statements written according to the Government’s requirements. If they do not fulfil the Government’s expectations, they are threatened with death. As far as we can see, there isn’t even an election in sight. We do not know when an election will be held. However, in every village and every division, people who love this country have rallied around us and around our party,” Namal had added.

GR put on notice

The Supreme Court meanwhile has informed the lawyers of a petitioner to reissue notice on former President GR, who has been named as a respondent in a Fundamental Rights petition filed by Attorney-at-Law Dr. Ravindranath Dabare, seeking an investigation and appropriate action over alleged irregularities in the payment of compensation for damages caused to the houses of former ministers and MPs during the ‘Aragalaya’ period.

The order was made by a bench comprising Supreme Court Justices Achala Wengappuli and Menaka Wijesundera. 

Environmental law expert Dabare has named former President GR and several others as respondents in the petition. The petitioner states that the way compensation had been granted for damages allegedly caused to the houses of former ministers and MPs during the ‘Aragalaya’ protests was unlawful and lacked transparency. He has requested the court to order an investigation into the matter and, if compensation had been wrongly paid, to recover those funds and act against those responsible.

Complaints to commission

Meanwhile, the Presidential Commission of Inquiry appointed to probe the procurement of coal for the Lakvijaya Coal Power Plant from 2009 has become quite a controversy, with ruling party members lodging complaints against members of the Opposition and several senior Opposition members questioning the integrity of the commission’s proceedings.

A complaint was recently submitted to the commission, which is currently operating at the Aluthkade Courts Complex in Colombo, by JVP/NPP MP Ruwan Mapalagama. He had formally submitted written evidence and information related to alleged corrupt transactions that had taken place between 2010 and 2014.

According to the submission, coal imports during the said period had allegedly been carried out without proper tender procedures or Cabinet approval, and the imports had allegedly been conducted through three companies on six separate occasions without following standard procurement processes.

The complaint has further alleged that over 500,000 MT of coal had been imported without competitive bidding, resulting in a financial loss exceeding Rs. 670 million to the Government.

During the period in question, Patali Champika Ranawaka had served as Minister of Power and Energy from 2010 to 2013, while Pavithra Wanniarachchi held the same portfolio from 2013 to 2015.

The complaint followed an earlier submission made on 7 May by JVP/NPP MP Ravindra Bandara, who had raised concerns over alleged procurement irregularities in the award of a coal tender between 2009 and 2010. That complaint alleged that a company ranked third in the evaluation process had been arbitrarily awarded the contract.

The commission is to continue receiving complaints and evidence until 22 May.

Opposition to boycott

The Opposition meanwhile has questioned the integrity of the commission to probe coal procurements by stating that key members of the Opposition would boycott the commission. The Opposition members claim that the commission has less to do with coal and more to do with confidence, or the lack of it. 

The trigger for this outburst by the Opposition has been a politically costly remark by JVP General Secretary Silva, who appeared to suggest that those accused in the recent substandard coal controversy would be cleared within three months, even though the commission itself had been appointed by President AKD for a six-month period.

For the Opposition, the statement handed the perfect excuse to question whether the verdict had already been written before proceedings even began. 

Former Minister Ranawaka seized on the contradiction and declared that neither he nor several Opposition MPs would appear before what he described as a commission “overseen by Tilvin Silva”.

The Government, however, is likely to counter the Opposition claim by insisting that Silva was merely speaking politically, not institutionally.

Joint Opposition in Matara

Meanwhile, members of the joint Opposition group, which is convened by former Minister G.L. Peiris, last week held the second of the series of islandwide anti-Government seminars. This time the seminar was held in the Matara District.

The theme of the latest seminar was ‘Horuth boruth eka mitata paradamu’ and it was held at the Sanasa Hall at Nupe Junction in Matara.

While several senior Opposition members had addressed the event, the best speeches had been delivered by MP Chamara Sampath Dasanayake and former Minister Patali Champika Ranawaka.

Following the seminar, United National Party (UNP) National Organiser Sagala Ratnayaka had organised lunch at the Matara Rest House.

One of the key talking topics during lunch had been the Government’s move to suppress the Opposition by initiating legal action against key Opposition politicians and the need for all Opposition parties to unite. 

A letter to Chief Justice

The joint Opposition group also sent a letter to Chief Justice Preethi Padman Surasena, injecting fresh tension into the country’s already volatile political climate.

The group of senior Opposition political leaders have warned of what they have described as a “very serious threat” to the independence of the Judiciary.

What makes the intervention politically significant is not only its content, but its composition. The letter was signed by 20 prominent figures from across the political spectrum, including UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe, Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) Leader Nimal Siripala de Silva, United Republic Front Leader Patali Champika Ranawaka, and the Tamil National Alliance’s (TNA) M.A. Sumanthiran, among others. The rare convergence of such diverse political actors signals a moment of unusual consensus, or at least shared concern, over the state of judicial autonomy.

Concerns over judicial independence came into focus following President AKD’s May Day speech, where he referred to ongoing court cases and the possible outcome of several cases while also warning of impending incarcerations.

Obstacles to unity

Meanwhile, there is continued anticipation over the formation of an alliance between the main Opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and the UNP. 

While the SJB and its leadership continue to make a sincere push for an alliance, there seem to be several obstacles in the form of several individuals in the UNP blocking the union.

The belief of obstacles to SJB-UNP unity was further compounded by a recent statement by former MP Ajith Mannapperuma. He had noted that if SJB Leader Premadasa were to say ‘Ranil as President and I as Prime Minister,’ then the SJB and the UNP would unite immediately. He added that nothing else would be necessary.

Mannapperuma’s statement gathered much flak from SJBers who claimed that “the truth slipped out of Mannapperuma’s mouth”.

“He (Mannaperuma) is a puppet of the two UNP ‘spectres’ trying to sabotage the SJB-UNP alliance. To say that the SJB and UNP will unite only if Ranil becomes President, now what can one think – that it is now clear who is really blocking this alliance, Sajith or Ranil?” questioned a senior SJBer.

Disgruntled allies

Meanwhile, minority parties in the SJB alliance are continuing to express their disappointment and displeasure over the main Opposition alliance by taking a backseat at many recent events organised by the SJB.

Many minority party leaders in the SJB alliance were also not seen on stage at the SJB’s recent May Day rally. Among the minority leaders who are taking a backseat at SJB events are Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) Leader Rauff Hakeem, All Ceylon Makkal Congress (ACMC) Leader Rishad Bathiudeen, and up-country Tamil political leaders like Palani Digambaram and V. Radhakrishnan.

It is no secret that many minority political parties, especially Muslim parties, have been expressing their displeasure over the way many Opposition parties are clamouring to please the ultra-nationalist Sinhala Buddhist vote bloc.

It is learnt that the most recent issues that have made minority party leaders distance themselves from the SJB and its leadership is Opposition and SJB Leader Premadasa’s attendance at a book launch organised by ultra-nationalist former Minister Udaya Gammanpila on the Easter Sunday attacks probe and the statements made by some SJB MPs against the daily wage hike for estate workers, saying it was an illegal wage hike by the Government.

Viyathmaga moves to Namal

Meanwhile, the once famous Viyathmaga organisation, which played a key role in former President GR’s Presidential Election campaign, is making a comeback to the political scene, but this time under a new name and with newer faces as well.

This group had recently met at a star-class hotel in Colombo. The meeting had been convened by one of the pioneers of GR’s Viyathmaga – Dr. Nalaka Godahewa. The new grouping, it is learnt, is looking at convening under a new name with ‘Nava Yugaya,’ which means a new era, being one of the key names being looked at.

Dr. Godahewa had invited a group of former Viyathmaga members as well as several new individuals. However, almost everyone present at the meeting fell under the category of professionals. The discussion had been based on the current political developments, mistakes made in the past, and the path forward.

A few hours after the meeting had convened, Namal Rajapaksa had arrived at the venue. He had received a warm welcome and everyone gathered had asked for his take on the current political developments as well as the situation of the SLPP.

Namal, it is learnt, had explained that he was continuing with his programme to hold meetings at grassroots level and that there was a growing acceptance of the SLPP among the grassroots. He had noted that the people continued to place their trust in MR and that the SLPP was continuing to gain ground. However, Namal had noted that despite the growing displeasure among the people about the Government, many were still supportive of President AKD and believed that he would resolve the issues faced by the country. 

Afterwards, the discussion had focused on the shortcomings of Viyathmaga and what needs to be done after assuming office. After discussing the issues, Dr. Godahewa had noted that focus should first be on the path to assuming office before discussing what is to be done once in office.

Northern political realignment

Meanwhile, a quiet but potentially significant political transformation appears to be unfolding in the Northern and Eastern Provinces, as the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK) begins mobilising rehabilitated former Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) members and their families into a new democratic political movement.

The development comes at a time when growing dissatisfaction is emerging among sections of Tamil and Muslim voters in the north and east over the Government’s failure to deliver several key political promises made during the last Presidential and Parliamentary Elections.

During the election campaigns, President AKD and the ruling JVP/NPP received substantial support from Tamil and Muslim communities in the north and east. That support was largely driven by promises to introduce a new constitution, repeal the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA), conduct Provincial Council Elections, address long-standing grievances of Tamil communities, and abolish the executive presidency.

However, one-and-a-half years later, many of those promises remain unfulfilled.

It is evident that disappointment is gradually growing within northern communities, creating political space for traditional Tamil parties to regroup and rebuild their influence.

It is within this context that the ITAK has reportedly launched a new initiative aimed at reconnecting rehabilitated former LTTE members and their families with democratic political activity. Reports indicate that influential Tamil diaspora groups have also shown support for the effort.

According to regional reports, approximately 12,000 rehabilitated former LTTE cadres are currently living across the north and east. Recognising the potential social and political influence of this community, the party has begun direct engagement programmes in several districts.

Recently, the party’s General Secretary M.A. Sumanthiran had held meetings with former cadres and their families in Mannar and Vavuniya, with the gatherings reportedly drawing considerable participation, signalling renewed political interest among communities that have remained largely disconnected from mainstream politics since the end of the civil war.

It is believed that the ITAK is attempting to lay the foundation for a broader northern political revival centred on unresolved Tamil political demands, regional autonomy, and the long-delayed Provincial Council Elections.

The renewed political activism also coincides with major developments across the Palk Strait in Tamil Nadu, where actor-turned-politician Vijay, popularly known as ‘Thalapathy Vijay,’ has assumed the position of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister.