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Casinos, rockets, U-turns: Is NPP losing its compass?

Casinos, rockets, U-turns: Is NPP losing its compass?

10 Aug 2025


Power has a strange way of altering political DNA. Those who once fought with righteous indignation against a system often find themselves defending, even celebrating, that very system once they inherit its reins. In Sri Lanka, the clearest example of this paradox is the metamorphosis of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), a party that rose from Marxist socialist roots, denouncing global capitalism and vowing to dismantle the ‘exploitative’ open economy.

Yet here we are, watching the same JVP, now rebadged under the National People’s Power (NPP) alliance, making an impassioned case for market liberalisation and the virtues of an open economy. If someone had predicted a year ago that the JVP Leader would stand in Parliament and speak about ‘opening up the economy,’ they would have been laughed out of the room. And yet, that is exactly what happened when the President addressed Parliament last week in what seemed an attempt at damage control after a week in which the Government’s carefully curated image took two heavy blows, both self-inflicted.

Episode one essentially surrounded the party’s overnight conversion on its casino policy. The sight of the President cutting the ribbon to inaugurate a new gaming facility was a juicy full toss for the Opposition. After all, it was not too long ago that JVP-inspired protests managed to pack off James Packer and his similar multi-million-dollar casino project at D.R. Wijewardena Mawatha. For decades, the JVP waged a relentless campaign against casinos and gaming, condemning them as corrupting vices that prey on the vulnerable and a stain on national morality. Now, in Government, the party is openly promoting it. 

Social media erupted with ridicule and biting satire. Party loyalists scrambled to justify the move, issuing statements across platforms, but the damage was done. The optics were overwhelming: the party had dumped yet another one of its cornerstone policies.

Episode two followed just days later. If the casino episode bruised the Government’s image, the ‘Rajapaksa rocket’ saga risked fracturing it. For years, the JVP accused the Rajapaksa administration of siphoning off over $ 300 million in public funds for a phantom satellite project, nicknamed ‘Chichi’s rocket’ after the former President’s son. It was held up as a textbook case of grand corruption: proof, the JVP said, of the previous regime’s plundering.

Then came the twist. Responding to a question in Parliament, no less a person than the Prime Minister confirmed that the satellite (‘rocket’) not only existed but had been launched in 2012, with no State funds used in the project. She further stated that it had generated millions of dollars in foreign exchange since. The reaction was immediate. Social media went into overdrive, mocking the Government for having sold the public a fable for over a decade. The very next day, a senior Minister attempted to defuse the situation by taking the unprecedented step of contradicting his own Prime Minister, claiming the Board of Investment (BOI) had given her “inaccurate data”. That only made matters worse.

Instead of clearing the air, the contradiction painted a picture of a government at war with itself. The Prime Minister’s silence since has only fuelled speculation about a simmering internal cold war. However, some others appear to have an alternate theory, suggesting that the whole episode was an elaborate ploy to remove the BOI Chief. If so, the collateral damage was steep: the Government’s credibility took another beating, and its internal cohesion was seemingly thrown into question. It seems that the ‘Rajapaksa rocket’ was no phantom, but it’s the Government’s credibility that’s now gone missing.

It was against this backdrop that the President took to the floor of Parliament in an attempt at damage control by attempting to change the narrative. However, that too appeared to have misfired, with the Opposition contrasting the President’s current rhetoric with his Opposition-era speeches. His plan to secure new Chinese loans for infrastructure development was flagged as a possible violation of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme’s strict borrowing limits. The image created was one of a Government willing to bend its principles and its own policies for expediency. 

The President is not the first to discover that ghosts from the past have long memories. Every government inherits them. The real test lies not in whether they appear, but in how effectively they are managed. In this case, the Government has found itself caught in a series of U-turns: from opposing casinos to endorsing them, from ‘exposing’ alleged corruption to admitting there was none, from railing against foreign debt to seeking more of it. For many, even the NPP’s new-found ‘moderate’ supporters, the question is no longer about policy; it is about credibility, with the policy paradox becoming more pronounced each passing day.

One of the most glaring contradictions in the Government’s narrative is its explanation of the economic crisis. Senior NPP figures regularly assert that past governments bankrupted the country through flawed economic policies. Yet, in the same breath, they claim the economy is “now on the right track” and “on the path to growth,” while retaining those very same policies. If the policies were wrong then, why are they right now? Since they remain unchanged, is the claim of ‘policy failure’ under past governments not misleading?

Beyond the theatrics of political U-turns, Sri Lanka’s economic reality is far from secure. Tax revenues have indeed increased, but without a corresponding rise in economic growth, its sustainability is questionable. Growth without competitiveness is a mirage. Export competitiveness remains a core challenge in the face of rising production costs, particularly in energy, threatening to undermine the recent export gains. Electricity tariffs have risen sharply in the last quarter and the next two will reveal whether the manufacturing sector has been able to absorb the shock.

At the end of the day, it is the numbers that matter. Sri Lanka must reach around $ 9 billion in reserves by end-2026 and $ 13 billion by 2027 to avoid another default in 2028. There are only two realistic engines that can generate the foreign exchange required at that scale: exports and tourism. Both require more than slogans; they demand a competitive cost base, investment in infrastructure, and credible policy stability. Tourism needs consistent promotion and security assurances. Exports need predictable trade policy, lower input costs, and fewer bureaucratic roadblocks.

Instead of a sustained focus on these fundamentals, the Government has been distracted by political firefighting. Every week seems to bring another self-inflicted controversy, another scramble for damage control. Social media, once the NPP’s weapon of mass mobilisation, has become an unforgiving mirror, reflecting its missteps in real time. If the Government cannot craft its own narrative, it risks squandering the momentum it gained from public goodwill. 

These recurring episodes also raise uncomfortable questions about the legitimacy of political mandates secured on the back of half-truths or outright fabrications. The ‘Ugandan cash’ saga, now joined by the casino U-turn and the satellite reversal, suggests a pattern: narratives crafted for political advantage, only to collapse under the weight of evidence once in power.

If a government comes to power by convincing the electorate of things that later prove untrue, is the mandate it claims to wield still valid in a moral sense? That is a question that deserves more than partisan debate and could well lead to civic introspection. The average Sri Lankan voter has, time and again, proven susceptible to emotionally charged narratives, catchy slogans, and the promise of clean breaks from the past. But when those promises dissolve, as they so often do, the disillusionment is palpable.

Sri Lanka is by no means out of the woods yet. The IMF programme offers a narrow path to stability, but it is laced with constraints: borrowing limits, fiscal discipline, and structural reforms. On top of that the global environment remains uncertain with geopolitical tensions, volatile energy prices, and shifting trade alliances requiring nimble diplomacy.

Against this backdrop, the Government must make a strategic choice. Will it continue to oscillate between ideological reinvention and reactive damage control? Or will it commit to a coherent, consistent policy direction that prioritises exports, tourism, investment, and cost competitiveness?

Power, as the JVP’s transformation illustrates, can either be a platform for principled reform or a stage for political performance. The test of this Government will be whether it can translate its political capital into lasting economic resilience without losing the trust it once commanded. If the NPP Government wants to be on the right side of history, it must learn that credibility is the currency of governance. Once spent, it is far harder to replenish than foreign reserves.



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