There was a time when the United National Party (UNP) was the single largest political party with the largest vote bank. Its main rival, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), was able to defeat the UNP in the elections only through alliances with other parties, particularly with the Left.
In the last century, we saw the UNP garner more total votes across the country, even in the few General Elections in which SLFP-led coalitions won and formed the government.
But today, with the same UNP severely weakened under the 30-year leadership of Ranil Wickremesinghe, it is mobilising other Opposition parties against the National People’s Power (NPP) led by the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), a Left-wing coalition that captured power through democratic elections for the first time in Sri Lanka’s political history.
It was said that it was in the firm belief that the UNP would be in power continuously that former President J.R. Jayewardene introduced the Proportional Representation (PR) electoral system since his party had the largest vote bank.
But we have also seen a General Election in which not a single member of the UNP was elected to Parliament under the same PR system.
At the same time, the NPP, which had only 3% of the vote bank until a few years ago, was able to win more than two-thirds of the seats in Parliament under the PR system at last year’s Parliamentary Elections amid a changed political landscape in the wake of the popular uprising (‘Aragalaya’) three years ago.
Opposition attempts to unite
The traditional mainstream political parties – the UNP, SLFP, and Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) of the Rajapaksas – are now trying to work together against the NPP Government that has been in power for the past year. But these parties, which were rejected by the people last year, are under a political compulsion to find relevance and space for themselves in today’s political scenario.
It is true that the NPP Government has not been able to fulfil most of the election promises it made to the people. The resultant resentment of the people was reflected in the considerable drop in votes gained by the ruling party in the May local polls.
However, the Opposition’s efforts to work together are focused not on the main problems facing the people, but on the ongoing legal action against corruption and irregularities by politicians who held key positions in previous governments. Attempts were made to unite the Opposition, even as the Government took steps to remove State-funded privileges enjoyed by former presidents.
The Opposition, which expressed support and solidarity with Wickremesinghe when he was arrested in late August on charges of using State funds for personal foreign travel while serving as President, has since stepped up efforts to rally parties against the Government. It is no secret that many of the politicians who have held positions in previous governments are terrified that they may be arrested on corruption charges at any time.
Describing the case against Wickremesinghe and the legal actions taken so far against some politicians as ‘constitutional dictatorship,’ the Opposition parties are calling on the people to come together to fight the Government’s anti-democratic course.
Wickremesinghe was keen to use the UNP’s 79th annual convention in early September as an opportunity to bring the Opposition parties in line. There were more politicians on stage from other parties than from the UNP itself at the convention.
Nugegoda rally
The Opposition is preparing to hold a massive anti-Government rally in Nugegoda, outside Colombo, on 21 November. It has so far been confirmed that the UNP, the splintered SLFP, the SLPP, the People’s Alliance (PA), and the Pivithuru Hela Urumaya (PHU) will participate in the rally. The main Opposition party, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), has categorically announced that it will not attend.
It was in Nugegoda that the political parties of the allied Rajapaksas held their most successful rally under the name ‘Mahinda Sulanga’ (wind) to pave the way for the political resurgence of Mahinda Rajapaksa, who lost the January 2015 Presidential Election.
The political campaigns that followed led to the launch of a new political party, the SLPP, and the return of the Rajapaksas to power. Therefore, it is likely that the leaders of the Opposition believe that by holding the first rally in Nugegoda, the campaign against the Government will be successful in the end.
Maithripala Sirisena was able to win the 2015 Presidential Election due to the overwhelming majority of votes from minority communities. The majority of the Sinhalese vote went to Rajapaksa, who said that what Sirisena got was “Eelam votes”.
The ‘Good Governance’ experiment of the UNP and SLFP, which were the two poles of Sri Lankan politics, conducted for the first time, ended in a crushing defeat and the Rajapaksas were able to return to power by carrying out a majoritarian mobilisation. The rest is recent history.
However, today there is no such situation. Only a year has passed since the NPP came to power with an unprecedented parliamentary majority. There is no strong political leader in the Opposition who can mobilise the people to campaign against the Government of the day, unlike in the case of the successful campaigns against the ‘Good Governance’ Government centred on Mahinda Rajapaksa.
Sajith and minorities
Based on the results of the three elections held within a year’s time, it is clear that the SJB is the party with the largest vote bank among Opposition parties.
SJB Leader Sajith Premadasa seems to be of the opinion that he and his party are not going to get a big political advantage by working with other parties that have lost popular support. He also seems to have questions about the impact on his leadership if he attends a rally jointly organised by other Opposition parties.
It is certain that Premadasa will be uncomfortable with appearing on the same stage as Wickremesinghe and SLPP National Organiser Namal Rajapaksa. He does not want attempts to merge his party with the UNP either. He fears that such a merger will ruin his political future.
Premadasa, who has declared his readiness to cooperate with the political movement against the anti-democratic activities of the NPP Government, is not ready to join the alliances. Therefore, the question arises as to how successful the efforts of the Opposition parties will be without the presence of a large Opposition party with substantial popular support.
The political parties representing minority communities, such as the Ceylon Workers’ Congress (CWC), Tamil Progressive Alliance (TPA), and Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC ), have also had trouble in participating in Opposition unity efforts.
An important reason for this is the involvement of politicians like Udaya Gammanpila, who are unwilling to accept even the bare minimum of legitimate political aspirations of minority communities.
‘Constitutional dictatorship’
It is true that Opposition parties are forced to work together due to the current situation. However, they are unlikely to work together in an election. The Rajapaksas will not join such alliances and contest elections.
It is important to see how the people view the Opposition’s description of the NPP Government’s legal action against politicians and officials for corruption and irregularities as a ‘constitutional dictatorship’.
If there is such a constitutional dictatorship, the main reason for that is the executive presidential system. Therefore, it seems appropriate for the Opposition to demand that the Government bring an amendment to the present Constitution, rather than waiting for a new constitution to be brought in to abolish the system. It may bring considerable pressure on the Government.
(The writer is a senior journalist based in Colombo)
(The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the official position of this publication)