President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s recent announcement appears to have put an end to the confusion over the sequence of national elections. He has said that no election will be held until the external debt restructuring process being carried out under the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) assistance programme is completed and that this process will be over before the Presidential Election, which is due later this year.
Since the President has mentioned July as a deadline, he has given a clear message to those who have been demanding that the Parliamentary Elections be held before the Presidential Election; i.e. no election will be held before July and it is not possible to hold Parliamentary Elections within a short period of time before mid-October, when Presidential Elections are supposed to be held as per the Constitution.
The President and his United National Party (UNP) politicians have made it clear to the Rajapaksas, who are cranking up pressure to dissolve Parliament and hold General Elections first, that they want the Presidential Election to be held first.
Many political observers believe that unless the President was convinced that de facto Leader of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) Basil Rajapaksa will be unable to muster the support of 113 members to pass a resolution in the House to dissolve Parliament, he would not have outright rejected the Rajapaksas’ demand.
Legal luminary MP Prof. G.L. Peiris said recently at a press conference at his residence that in terms of Article 70 of the Constitution, the relevant motion should have the backing of the majority of MPs at the time a vote is taken on the motion, adding that it could be adopted even without the consent of a simple majority in Parliament.
The plight of the Rajapaksas
It is almost certain now that the Rajapaksas are not going to field their party candidate in the Presidential Election. They are insisting that Parliamentary Elections be held first due to the fear that a possible resounding defeat in the Presidential Election would have further repercussions for them in the upcoming Parliamentary Elections.
However, it is now increasingly clear that they have no option but to support President Wickremesinghe. They have instructed SLPP politicians to refrain from commenting on the prospective presidential candidates of the party.
At the same time, the Rajapaksas will no doubt be concerned with how to secure as many assurances as possible from Wickremesinghe to ensure their future political prospects in return for their support of him in the Presidential Election.
An increasing number of SLPP ministers and MPs voicing their support for Wickremesinghe has become a significant problem for the Rajapaksas. They openly say that there is no political leader other than Wickremesinghe to lead the country amidst the current economic and political crisis. The Rajapaksas need to prevent the party from splitting further.
On the President’s campaign trail
Meanwhile, although President Wickremesinghe has yet to publicly announce his candidacy, his campaign machinery has started working. He cannot delay the announcement of his candidacy for the presidency for too long.
With this being the case, it is interesting to observe the comments made by UNP politicians regarding the nature of President Wickremesinghe’s candidacy.
UNP Chairman MP Wajira Abeywardena has said the President will unite all political parties and be a national candidate at the Presidential Election.
“The President will contest as a man who will unite all political parties,” he said, indicating that Wickremesinghe would contest as a common candidate.
Labour Minister Manusha Nanayakkara has said that Wickremesinghe’s candidacy will be a neutral one which will not represent any political party.
“The President will contest as an independent national candidate on a common platform where people representing all parties, ethnicities, and religions as well as people with diverse views can come together. He will once again become the president of this country,” Nanayakkara said.
UNP Spokesman and Former MP P. Harrison made a bold claim that Wickremesinghe would get 10 million votes at the Presidential Election.
He also took a shot at the leftist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led National People’s Power (NPP), which according to many recent opinion polls, is strongly ahead of any other contender, including the President and the main Opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB).
“The JVP thinks that their over 3% has climbed up to 80%. For that to happen, all of us will have to vote for them. That will not be the case. If you take the whole country, at the most, their 3% will go up to no more than 5 or 10%,” Harrison said.
Former Minister and UNP Assistant Leader Akila Viraj Kariyawasam said a few days ago that a research conducted by the Government had revealed that more than 60% of voters in the country were still undecided on whom they should vote for, adding that rumours alleging that certain political parties were expected to receive a high percentage of votes were false.
“Some political parties are living in illusions. Incumbent President Wickremesinghe will spring a surprise similar to the one the country experienced during the 2015 Presidential Election. There are many things happening behind the scenes. Therefore, don’t come to conclusions by seeing from the outside,” he said.
Although all these UNP politicians claim that Wickremesinghe will contest the Presidential Election with the support of a broader alliance, no significant progress is visible in his efforts to form such an alliance. The President is heavily dependent on other parties, particularly a section of SLPP parliamentarians who defected from the Rajapaksas following the popular uprising two years ago, for alliance-building efforts, with his own party weakened and lacking the organisational framework.
However, contrary to his expectations, the members of the SLPP are not interested in joining the ranks of the dissidents and no party with substantial public support is willing to join them, except for some individuals.
It is clear that many parties would have been interested in joining the President’s efforts to form a broader alliance only if the UNP was in a strong position. In the current situation, the mere claim that there is no other leader but Wickremesinghe to lead the country is not enough to make the people rally around him.
Rallying public support
The President believes he will get massive support from the minority communities. Despite minority communities overwhelmingly supporting him in the past, there is now a risk that his appearance as a Rajapaksa-backed candidate could backfire in the upcoming Presidential Election when it comes to the support of the minorities.
Wickremesinghe believes that the economic restructuring measures carried out with the assistance of the IMF are gradually increasing his support among the people. But the resemblance of normalcy has not brought any significant improvement in the quality of life for most people. Despite the availability of goods in abundance, their prices are not at a level that most people can afford.
A common candidate
If the incumbent president is strong enough, most Opposition parties will tend to nominate a common candidate against him at the Presidential Election. Even so, it cannot be said that all Opposition parties will support such a candidate.
The UNP had the experience of supporting former Army Commander Sarath Fonseka and former President Maithripala Sirisena, both of whom were fielded as common candidates of the Opposition at the 2010 and 2015 Presidential Elections, respectively, against former President Mahinda Rajapaksa.
Wickremesinghe avoided contesting in three consecutive Presidential Elections after having lost twice. He cannot be said to be a strong ruler even though he is an Executive President today. His Government runs with the parliamentary support of the Rajapaksas’ party. In such a situation, Opposition parties are not interested in fielding a common candidate against him.
The main Opposition parties, the SJB and the NPP, had already announced their candidates several months ago and have been campaigning actively. The idea of declaring an incumbent president as a common candidate is unprecedented in Sri Lankan politics.
Just because certain parties have come forward to support Wickremesinghe, the idea of declaring him as a common candidate or national candidate is preposterous.
We have never known anyone contesting as a national candidate in presidential elections elsewhere in the world. If anyone has contested in such a manner, UNP politicians should let us know.
The President’s prospects
Apart from all these, it is necessary to point out one peculiar aspect of President Wickremesinghe’s political life.
During the three decades of his leadership, the UNP has never won a Presidential Election. It was the ‘Aragalaya’ people’s uprising that created an unprecedented political situation for Wickremesinghe to become the Executive President, a post that had eluded him for more than a quarter-century.
UNP stalwart and Sabaragamuwa Province Governor Navin Dissanayake once said that Wickremesinghe was even considering disbanding the party after the UNP was wiped off the electoral map at the 2020 Parliamentary Elections.
Most UNP politicians aligned themselves with Sajith Premadasa because they had lost hope that the UNP could once again rear its head as an effective political force under Wickremesinghe’s leadership. That is why many of them are MPs today.
But the irony is that UNP politicians still have no way out other than relying entirely on Wickremesinghe to rebuild the party. The situation has changed dramatically to such an extent that Wickremesinghe’s former political nemeses – the Rajapaksas – have not only made him the President but are also hailing him now as the best presidential candidate among present-day politicians. That is the paradox of Ranil Wickremesinghe.
(The writer is a senior journalist based in Colombo)