• 60% chance of El Niño by mid-year as Pacific warming intensifies
• June–August rainfall likely to dip below average, threatening Yala cultivation
• 550,000 hectares of paddy at risk as dry spell conditions loom
• 39% of households already face diet challenges, raising food inflation fears
• ENSO-IOD convergence points to hotter, drier mid-monsoon months
• Experts urge climate-smart farming and tighter water management

A potential El Niño event is raising fresh concerns over Sri Lanka’s food security, with meteorologists warning of a heightened risk of below-average rainfall during the critical southwest monsoon months.

Meteorological projections indicate a significant warming of the Pacific Ocean, pointing to a roughly 60% probability of El Niño conditions developing by mid-year. For an economy still recovering from the 2025 cyclone and its impact on agriculture, any disruption to the Yala cultivation season could have far-reaching consequences.

Current data from the Department of Meteorology suggests that rainfall levels may fall below seasonal averages between June and August, a period vital for the approximately 550,000 hectares of paddy under cultivation. 

The implications extend beyond climate alone. With 39% of households already struggling to maintain adequate diet diversity, according to the World Food Programme, a decline in domestic agricultural output could trigger renewed food inflation pressures.

Citing international media reports and assessments issued by the World Meteorological Organization, growing attention has been drawn in recent weeks to the possibility of an El Niño event influencing global climate conditions in 2026. 

Discussions across both mainstream and social media have raised key questions: What exactly is this phenomenon? Is it unprecedented? And what implications could it carry for Sri Lanka’s weather patterns and, by extension, its food security? 

The phenomenon

Department of Meteorology Duty Meteorologist Malith Fernando told The Sunday Morning that seasonal variation was a normal feature of the global climate system, with predictable shifts in sunlight, rainfall, and wind patterns throughout the year. 

However, historical data shows that deviations from these established patterns could, at times, trigger extreme weather events, including floods and droughts.

One of the major drivers of such anomalies is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate phenomenon originating in the Pacific Ocean that has far-reaching global impacts. ENSO influences weather patterns, particularly in equatorial regions, but its effects extend across the entire planet. It is generally classified into three phases: El Niño, La Niña, and a neutral state.

Is ENSO the only influence on Sri Lanka’s climate?

Sri Lanka’s geographic location within the Indian Ocean also exposes it to the influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which similarly affects seasonal weather patterns. Like ENSO, the IOD operates in positive, negative, and neutral phases, each associated with varying rainfall distributions across the region.

Beyond these large-scale systems, a range of shorter-term atmospheric phenomena also shape Sri Lanka’s weather, particularly during monsoon periods. These include the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), low-pressure systems, cyclonic disturbances, and convective thunderstorm activity linked to weak monsoon conditions.

At times, even when the island is under the broader influence of El Niño conditions, short-lived weather systems, such as a cyclonic disturbance forming over a few days, can significantly alter rainfall patterns within a season. 

This interplay between long-term climate drivers and short-term weather events complicates forecasting and raises concerns over agricultural planning and food security outcomes.

Analysing data from the past 75 years

Fernando said that global multi-model forecasts issued by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University indicated an approximate 50% probability of ENSO transitioning into an El Niño phase in the Pacific Ocean by May.

He opined that the likelihood of this development was expected to increase further in the months that follow, based on current projections.

Fernando further noted that observations and model outputs from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) indicated that the IOD was likely to shift towards a positive phase in the coming months.

Based on updated forecasts, Fernando also noted that there was a likelihood of both a positive IOD and El Niño conditions emerging around May, with an increased probability of these conditions persisting through the subsequent months of the southwest monsoon.

Addressing whether such a scenario was unprecedented, Fernando explained that while the climate system was inherently complex and no two events were identical. Historical data suggests that the simultaneous occurrence of El Niño and a positive IOD is not entirely new.

“The atmosphere is a complex system, so identical conditions do not repeat in the same way. However, when we analyse historical data, we can see that there have been instances in the past where El Niño and a positive IOD have occurred together,” he said. 

Fernando noted that, based on data from 1950 to the present, more than six such occurrences have been recorded during the southwest monsoon period.

He said that in order to better understand the potential impacts, an analysis had been conducted on variations in Sri Lanka’s monthly average rainfall and temperature during periods when El Niño and near-positive IOD conditions were observed simultaneously. The assessment had used islandwide monthly spatial averages derived from data spanning 1950–2025, with deviations calculated against long-term averages to identify anomalies in rainfall and temperature patterns.

According to Fernando, in May of 1982, 1991, 2015, 2019, 2023, and 2024, near-simultaneous occurrences of El Niño and a positive IOD had been observed. He explained that three of these instances recorded relatively higher rainfall, while the remaining three experienced lower rainfall levels.

“This suggests that short-term weather phenomena active during the month of May tend to play a more dominant role in determining rainfall outcomes, even under broader El Niño and positive IOD conditions,” Fernando said, adding that pre-monsoon rainfall patterns may have significantly influenced these variations.

Fernando said that, based on June data, near-simultaneous occurrences of El Niño and a positive IOD had been observed in seven instances, with six recording below-average rainfall and slightly higher-than-average temperatures.

“The consistency observed across these seven events suggests that El Niño and positive IOD conditions tend to be more dominant during June, with a discernible impact on the island’s rainfall patterns,” he said.

He added that this indicated a tendency towards drier and warmer conditions during June.

Fernando further noted that in July, 10 such occurrences had been recorded, of which nine had seen reduced rainfall and increased temperatures, indicating a significant influence of these global climate drivers.

He added that August followed a similar trend, with nine observed instances, six of which recorded reduced rainfall, while all instances showed increased temperatures.

However, he noted that this pattern became less consistent in September, the final month of the southwest monsoon. Over the past 75 years, 10 such occurrences have been observed, with only three recording reduced rainfall and seven showing increased rainfall, while temperature patterns were mixed.

“This suggests that, by September, the influence of El Niño and positive IOD on rainfall becomes less pronounced,” Fernando explained.

Providing further context, Fernando noted that the timing of ENSO onset was a key factor in determining its impact. “The month in which El Niño or La Niña begins plays a key role in shaping its eventual effects,” he said.

According to current forecasts for 2026, El Niño is expected to develop around May. Historical comparisons show that similar scenarios have occurred in 1972 and 2023 (strong events), and 1982 and 1997 (very strong events).

Temperature data from these years indicates relatively lower temperatures in May, followed by a marked increase in June, July, and August, with more variable conditions in September. Rainfall data shows variability in May and September, but a consistent pattern of reduced rainfall during June, July, and August.

“This suggests that when El Niño develops in May and persists through the monsoon, the second, third, and fourth months of the southwest monsoon are likely to experience below-average rainfall,” Fernando said.

Fernando noted that current forecasts indicated a high likelihood of El Niño conditions alongside a positive IOD persisting through much of the southwest monsoon.

He cautioned that rainfall in May remained difficult to predict due to the influence of short-term weather systems, particularly low-pressure areas and cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal, although temperatures may be slightly above average.

“June, July, and August show a stronger correlation with ENSO and IOD conditions, indicating a higher likelihood of reduced rainfall and increased temperatures,” he said.

Fernando added that September, as a transition month, was influenced by weakening monsoon winds and increased convective activity, resulting in a weaker link to global climate drivers.

Fernando noted that the analysis presented was not an official statement issued by the Department of Meteorology, but rather an independent assessment conducted by him using specified datasets and defined analytical parameters.

Outlining the limitations of the analysis, Fernando explained that the standard threshold values used to define ENSO and a positive IOD were typically temperature anomalies of +0.5 and +0.4, respectively.

However, he noted that for the purpose of his study, specifically to capture a larger number of years in which El Niño and positive IOD conditions occurred simultaneously, adjusted threshold values of +0.4 for El Niño and +0.2 for IOD had been used in the analysis

Responding to concerns over whether the southwest monsoon may fail, Fernando said there was insufficient evidence to make a definitive determination. “It is not possible to give a clear ‘yes’ or ‘no’ answer. While forecasts do not indicate a complete monsoon failure, there is a notable likelihood of below-average rainfall,” he said.

He emphasised that, given the importance of the southwest monsoon for agriculture, hydropower generation, and water supply, proactive water management and preparedness would be essential in the months ahead.

Impact on food security

Senior agricultural and climate expert Prof. Buddhi Marambe drew a critical distinction between the El Niño phenomenon and the broader discourse on climate change, cautioning against conflating the two while emphasising their combined impact.

“There is no proven scientific link yet between El Niño and climate change, but the effects of El Niño add to the impacts of climate change, making the resulting conditions even more severe,” he said.

He explained that while El Niño was part of a natural climate cycle that recurred every two to seven years, the current projections suggested that the upcoming event may depart from historical patterns in both intensity and behaviour. 

Scientists monitoring upper atmospheric conditions have identified anomalies that could contribute to an unusually severe episode. “Scientists believe that due to changes in the upper atmosphere, the El Niño we face this time could be a severe one, the likes of which we have never experienced before,” Prof. Marambe noted.

At present, he said, there was near certainty within the scientific community that El Niño conditions were developing, with global climate bodies expected to meet around mid-May to provide more definitive projections on its strength and global connectivity.

For Sri Lanka, the timing of this development is particularly concerning. The anticipated intensification of El Niño around June coincides directly with the onset of the Yala cultivation season, during which the southwest monsoon typically supplies essential rainfall.

Prof. Marambe warned that El Niño could significantly alter this rainfall pattern. Instead of sustained monsoon rains, the country may experience an early peak followed by a rapid decline, creating drought-like conditions during the critical mid-season months.

“We might face a situation where, by July and August, we see very dry conditions similar to a drought,” he said.

This shift has direct physiological implications for paddy cultivation, particularly through a phenomenon known locally as ‘Ehela Pussa,’ which occurs when extreme heat and dryness coincide with the flowering stage of the crop.

Prof. Marambe explained that during this reproductive phase, high temperatures could cause the pollen within the paddy plant to dry out before fertilisation took place. As a result, although the plant continues to grow and may appear healthy, grain formation fails.

“If the plant reaches its reproductive stage in the high temperatures of July, the pollen can dry out, preventing fertilisation. Even if the paddy stalk forms, the grains will be empty (boll). This is what we call ‘Ehela Pussa,’ where the high temperatures in July prevent proper pollination,” he said.

He noted that this created a deceptive scenario for farmers, as fields may appear lush and productive, masking the absence of actual yield until harvest. The economic consequences can be severe, with farmers and millers facing losses despite seemingly healthy crops.

Beyond the immediate impact of the monsoon, Prof. Marambe highlighted the significant influence of the IOD, a climate phenomenon first identified in 1999 that frequently interacts with El Niño. 

He explained that while El Niño originated in the Pacific Ocean, the IOD developed within the Indian Ocean and acted as a secondary atmospheric driver that could either mitigate or intensify local climatic conditions. 

Collaborative research conducted by Prof. Marambe, Dr. Ranjith Punyawardena (the island’s senior-most agro-climatologist), and Dr. Aruni Abeysekara has identified a consistent historical pattern in this interaction, with Dr. Abeysekara’s work specifically examining the relationship between El Niño and the IOD. 

“What we discovered is that in years when an El Niño condition occurs, the IOD becomes positive,” Prof. Marambe noted, adding that this correlation had held true for nearly all recorded El Niño events, with 2007 being the only notable exception. 

The emergence of a positive IOD typically shifts Sri Lanka’s weather dynamics towards the latter part of the year: while El Niño may bring drier conditions in July and August, a positive IOD often triggers heavy convectional rainfall in the Western Province during October and November, which Prof. Marambe stressed could be both intense and unpredictable. 

Citing 2023 as an example, Prof. Marambe said that the positive IOD during that El Niño year had brought severe rains that devastated vegetable cultivation in the central highlands, leading to a sharp increase in food prices during the December festive season, followed by a market glut when delayed harvests arrived simultaneously in early 2024. 

He emphasised that the IOD added a critical layer of complexity to food security planning, as it could shift the country rapidly from drought conditions to the risk of flash floods within a single cultivation cycle.

“In 2023, because of these rains, vegetable prices reached record highs in December. But by the start of the next year, when farmers replanted and harvested simultaneously, the market was flooded and prices crashed,” he said.

This sequence illustrates how climate variability can translate directly into market volatility, with both producers and consumers affected by sudden price fluctuations.

In response to these risks, Prof. Marambe emphasised the importance of adopting climate-resilient agricultural practices grounded in local research and technological innovation.

He also highlighted the availability of drought-resistant paddy varieties developed specifically for water-scarce conditions, including Bg 251, a short-duration variety of approximately two and a half months; Bg 317, a three-month variety; and Bg 306, which matures over three-and-a-half months.

These varieties, he said, provided farmers with options better suited to shortened or disrupted rainfall cycles.

In addition, he strongly advocated for the adoption of Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) technology, a water management technique that departs from traditional continuous flooding practices. Under AWD, water is applied only at critical stages of crop growth, allowing fields to dry intermittently.

“Using technology to manage the water we have in our reservoirs is essential, not just for agriculture, but for human consumption, wildlife, and hydropower,” Prof. Marambe added.

He noted that such approaches were particularly important in a context where water resources had to be shared across multiple sectors, especially during periods of reduced rainfall.

Turning to the plantation sector, Prof. Marambe observed that while drought-tolerant tea varieties, such as those in the TRI 5000 series had been developed, these represented long-term investments that required years of planning before yielding returns.

At the policy level, he argued that the Government’s focus should shift from subsidy-driven approaches to ensuring the availability of essential inputs. Reliable access to fertiliser and fuel, he said, was more critical to sustaining agricultural activity than price controls alone.

“The Government’s role should be to ensure the availability of fertiliser and fuel. If these are accessible, even if prices fluctuate, farmers can manage their work effectively,” he said.

He also pointed to structural gaps in agricultural infrastructure, citing past initiatives such as a proposed storage facility in the Dambulla area that failed to become fully operational. Such infrastructure, he noted, could play a key role in reducing post-harvest losses and stabilising market supply during periods of surplus.

Further, Prof. Marambe stressed the need for greater involvement from the financial sector, particularly in providing credit facilities that would enable farmers to adopt modern, water-saving technologies.

His final message was one of preparedness rather than alarm: “Farmers should stay in close contact with their agricultural instructors to choose the right seeds and water management techniques to navigate the months ahead.”

Water management and cultivation outlook 

Meanwhile, Irrigation Department Director General Eng. K. Weligepolage emphasised that water management decisions were being guided primarily by agricultural needs, particularly in light of emerging climate risks. 

He noted that reservoir levels were currently within normal ranges, with the Yala cultivation season having commenced approximately a week ago. Water releases, he said, would continue steadily over the next three months to support ongoing farming activities. 

“Water is released for cultivation and drinking purposes, and electricity generation occurs as a byproduct,” he explained.

Weligepolage added that the department was adopting a resource-balancing approach to optimise available water, particularly as forecasts indicated the likelihood of a dry spell in the coming months.

He said that, despite the absence of any immediate ‘special alert,’ planning was being carried out with an emphasis on sustaining water availability for irrigation throughout the cultivation period.