With Sri Lanka’s food security being dependent on supply-side factors such as weather conditions affecting crops, the ongoing monsoon season could spell trouble.
The World Meteorological Organization has predicted above-normal rainfall during the 2025 southwest monsoon season (June-September) over most parts of South Asia. While the southwest monsoon is the lifeblood of national economies, agricultural production, and food security, heavy monsoon-related rainfall and flooding can also lead to adverse impacts on food security.
However, Walawa Left Bank Joint Farmers’ Association President Mahinda Samarawickrama told The Sunday Morning he did not believe there would be a significant impact from the monsoon on cultivation that could lead to a shortage, given the scattered nature of the rains.
Nevertheless, according to Samarawickrama, vegetable prices, such as cucumber, okra, and watakolu (luffa), in general are showing a decline at present, while prices of chilli, tomato, etc. remain high.
“The Hambantota District is facing dry weather, since there is no impact of the monsoon on this region. If there is continuous rainfall, there can be damage to vegetable cultivations. When there is too much water, it will destroy roots and lead to crop destruction. When this happens, it can lead to lower production,” he observed.
He also noted that the banana harvest in the Walawe region was also at a low level, with farmers unable to even maintain cultivation and the produce selling for low prices, although consumers were facing high prices due to middlemen. Further, businessmen are also claiming that the bananas cannot be sold due to the rain.
Similarly, All-Island Fisher-folk Trade Union President Aruna Roshantha noted that fishermen were unable to engage in fishing due to rough seas, although some fishermen who undertook net fishing still continued to do so despite the unfavourable conditions.
He further noted that fish supply was significantly low while prices were high, adding that there was no programme being carried out by the Government to address the situation. Typically, while more fish are caught during June amid the monsoon, the impact of the X-Press Pearl disaster means that the harvest of fish like hurulla and salaya is significantly less.
‘Yala season rains crucial’
Against this backdrop, University of Peradeniya (UOP) Faculty of Agriculture Senior Professor Buddhi Marambe explained that the impact of the southwest monsoon on Sri Lanka’s agricultural production meant that it was crucial for the Yala season, which is fed with the first intermonsoon and the southwest monsoon.
The two cultivating seasons of Yala and Maha are fed by four rainfall regimes, with the first rainfall regime being the first intermonsoon, a convection-type rain which usually falls between March and April. This is then followed by the southwest monsoon starting from May, which the country is currently experiencing. This will peak, then scatter, and possibly peak again towards the latter part while fading during September.
The southwest monsoon feeds the western slopes of the central highlands, while the northeast monsoon feeds the northern and eastern slopes of the highlands. Accordingly, the southwest monsoon mainly supports agriculture in the western and southern part of the country, while the northeast monsoon supports the northern and eastern parts.
When it comes to vegetable cultivation, since it is not seasonal, Prof. Marambe does not anticipate a significant impact from the monsoon. “In dry zone areas like Naula and Dambulla, vegetable cultivation takes place heavily and especially in the central highlands in terms of upcountry vegetables. While I cannot make predictions at present, should there be extreme rainfall, that’s the only situation where vegetable production can get affected.”
Addressing the significance of the southwest monsoon on the major staple of paddy, Prof. Marambe noted: “The monsoon plays a crucial role in Sri Lanka. It directly feeds into the system to continue agriculture as well as human and animal consumption with respect to water. If the southwest monsoon fails, it can have a massive impact, especially for paddy production. Even in the dry zone, cultivation takes place during the Yala season without the impact of the southwest monsoon because there is stored water in reservoirs that can be used for irrigation.
“When supplementary irrigation exists, especially through major irrigation schemes, productivity of paddy is high compared to rainfed farming alone. The southwest monsoon is also important to support agriculture in the western part of the country, because we lack huge reservoirs to support agriculture in this particular area.”
With the monsoon season having commenced, Prof. Marambe noted that it was difficult to predict the precise nature of how it would impact agricultural production. However, he noted: “Last Maha season was the worst we have experienced since 2019. With the exception of 2022 due to poor policy-making, when considering climate alone, it is the worst season that we have had. Last Maha season had the lowest total production when comparing Maha season yield since 2019, excluding 2022.
“Therefore, this Yala season is crucial, because we need a certain amount of paddy to be produced to feed our nation with rice. If this Yala season fails – and I have pointed this out since last December – importation of rice will be imminent.
“We see signals even right now. In April this year, the Government decided that rice will have to be imported to support the population. But it can be compensated for or cushioned to a certain level if the Yala season is successful, which makes rainfall in this season crucial.”
Interventions needed
However, when it comes to intervention to ensure that agricultural production remains secure, more aggressive measures are needed.
Samarawickrama noted: “As of now, the Government has neither discussed nor intervened regarding developing production activities of farmers or ensuring the preservation of produce. When it comes to paddy and rice, prices have dropped. Against such a backdrop, farmers will be harvesting paddy towards the end of next month in many areas, and as such, we suspect that there will be a drop in paddy prices for farmers.”
Moreover, should the rains continue for over 20 days consecutively, all vegetable crops will be damaged within a month-and-a-half. However, he said that the Government had discussed no programme to plan for such an eventuality.
In consideration of this, Prof. Marambe discussed potential contingency measures. “During the Yala season, part of the paddy fields are used for other crops like maize. However, since we had a bad Maha season, it would be better if we can prioritise paddy production during this Yala season specifically,” he said, proposing that the Government undertake paddy cultivation during this Yala season with less diversification.
“While this is not to say that diversification should be fully stopped, because other field crops will also have to be grown, we should strike a balance. Rather than overdoing it, we should ensure paddy production is done in order to make sure that we can compensate for the losses we experienced during the Maha season,” he said.
While he noted that higher vegetable prices were generally expected in August, September, and December as consumption increased, these price increases could become exacerbated if there is either heavy rainfall or very low rainfall.
However, while Prof. Marambe said that they were closely monitoring the situation, he pointed out that making predictions with any degree of certainty was difficult, since even with predictions, there was hardly any time even for the Government to respond.
“Supposing there is extreme rainfall, where vegetables get washed out, what can any government do? The only thing that can be done is to ensure that recultivation takes place. That facilitation is important. Recultivation takes place wherever possible because vegetables are not a seasonal crop; they are a continuous crop.”
Govt. measures
Meanwhile, speaking to The Sunday Morning, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Livestock Namal Karunaratne explained the measures underway to ensure food security in view of the monsoon season.
“We are embarking on a programme that has never been attempted before, which we have started from this Yala season. Farmers cultivating side crops including vegetables in paddy fields will receive a cultivation subsidy of Rs. 30,000 for two hectares.
“The provision of this relief to these farmers has already commenced. As such, farmers have been encouraged to grow vegetables and other crops in fields where paddy can’t be grown, especially during the Yala season,” he said.
While acknowledging that facilitating cold storage for vegetable preservation was challenging, Karunaratne nevertheless said that they were attempting the process. Moreover, they are planning measures to preserve vegetables through dehydration as well.
“Since excess rainfall leads to vegetable shortages, the Government has considered the post-harvest technology needed to fulfil the shortage by adding value to vegetables and fruits and preserving the produce,” he added.
In terms of paddy, he noted that there was no special preparation underway. However, should there be any damage to crops, he said that they would estimate and provide compensation.
Similarly, Deputy Minister of Trade, Commerce, and Food Security R.M. Jayawardana noted that while adverse weather conditions would cause some disruption to dry zone and up-country vegetable cultivation, it would not be possible to implement a mechanism to control vegetable prices immediately. He added that they must consider some mechanism to manage the situation.
Similarly, acknowledging that fishermen were seeing lower harvests with the current monsoon alongside the impact of other climatic changes, he said that the lower supply of fish had also driven up prices of eggs due to consumers substituting eggs for fish, as per the Consumer Affairs Authority. He added that the Government must consider this as well, noting that there would be challenges in balancing the issues of vegetable and fish supply.
Nevertheless, addressing the pressing issue of salt, he said that there was no longer a shortage. “We have given permission to import over 150,000 MT of salt, so there won’t be an issue with salt, since our yearly consumption is 180,000 MT. We gave this permission after considering that it might take a few more months to harvest salt.”