Sri Lanka is undergoing a rapid demographic transition. More than 12.5 per cent of the population is currently over the age of 60, a proportion projected to double to nearly 25% by 2041. This shift is driven by rising life expectancy and declining birth rates, and it places increasing pressure on the country’s working-age population.

At present, approximately 21.39% of Sri Lankans are under 15 years of age, while 12.5% are over 60. Together, these dependent groups account for nearly 34% of the population, supported by a working-age population of just over 66%, in an economy where unemployment remains at around 4-5%. This demographic reality presents profound social and economic implications, particularly when compounded by climate change and weak policy inclusion.

Core challenges facing older persons

Demographic shift

Sri Lanka is ageing faster than most countries in South Asia. While longevity is a development success, inadequate preparation has left the country ill-equipped to meet the complex needs of its growing elderly population.

Climate change vulnerability

Sri Lanka is highly vulnerable to climate change, facing increasingly frequent and severe floods, landslides, droughts, rising temperatures, and erratic rainfall patterns. These hazards disproportionately affect older persons due to limited mobility, chronic illness, and social isolation.

Systemic gaps in geriatric care

Geriatric care remains poorly integrated into the public health system. There is a shortage of trained personnel, a lack of long-term and home-based care facilities, and minimal specialisation in elder health. Social infrastructure is equally inadequate, with very few elder-care homes, insufficient community day-care centres, and limited age-friendly public spaces and transport. Economically, many older persons depend heavily on shrinking family support systems and inadequate pension coverage.

Emerging risks from a converging crisis

When demographic ageing, climate change, and systemic neglect intersect, they create a set of complex and escalating challenges.

A deepening health crisis

Climate-related health risks are rising sharply among older adults. Heatwaves exacerbate chronic illnesses such as diabetes, hypertension, renal disease, and mobility disorders, increasing the risk of heatstroke, dehydration, and mortality. Flooding and stagnant water contribute to the spread of vector-borne diseases such as dengue, which often result in severe complications for the elderly.

Mental health impacts are equally alarming. Climate-induced displacement, the loss of homes, and prolonged uncertainty — combined with pre-existing loneliness — are contributing to a largely unrecognised epidemic of depression and anxiety among older persons. Disasters also disrupt access to routine care, including dialysis, essential medications, and clinic visits. During emergencies, immobility and communication barriers often prevent timely evacuation, leading to preventable fatalities.

Livelihood and food insecurity

Older adults in rural areas rely on subsistence farming or home gardens for food and income. Climate-induced crop failures destroy these fragile livelihoods, increasing malnutrition and poverty. Older women, in particular, face disproportionate economic hardship, often forced to choose between food, medicine, and basic necessities.

Displacement and erosion of social support

Older persons are frequently the least able or willing to evacuate during disasters and suffer acutely in temporary shelters that lack privacy, sanitation, and medical care. Traditional family-based care systems are under strain due to economic migration and climate-related loss of assets, leaving many elders isolated or perceived as a burden. In urban settings, extreme heat and water scarcity confine less mobile elders to inadequate housing, deepening isolation.

Institutional and policy failures

Climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies remain largely “age-blind.” Early warning systems, evacuation plans, and relief mechanisms rarely account for mobility impairments or chronic health needs. Responsibility for elder welfare is fragmented across multiple Ministries, with little coordination. Compounding this is a severe lack of age- and gender-disaggregated data on climate impacts, undermining evidence-based policymaking.

The triple jeopardy facing older women

Older women experience compounded disadvantage due to age, gender, and poverty. They often live longer with fewer assets, lower literacy, and greater health burdens. In climate disasters, they are less likely to access timely information or reach safety, making them among the most vulnerable groups in society.

The need for urgent and inclusive policy action

Sri Lanka’s ageing population faces mounting risks from inadequate healthcare, limited social protection, and escalating climate threats. With the proportion of elderly citizens expected to reach one-quarter of the population within the next 15 years — alongside a large dependent child population — nearly 40% of Sri Lankans will be highly vulnerable to climate extremes.

This demographic-climate convergence carries serious implications for the economy, social stability, and governance. It underscores the urgent need for science-based, inclusive, and forward-looking policy development. Given the unpredictable nature of climate change, preparedness — not reactive post-disaster response — must become the national priority.

A way forward: Building climate-resilient ageing policies

Sri Lanka must move beyond “business as usual” towards a climate-focused policy framework that explicitly integrates ageing.

Key priorities should include:

• Mainstreaming ageing in the climate policy: Incorporate geriatric vulnerability assessments into all disaster risk management and climate adaptation plans.
• Age-friendly infrastructure: Establish heatwave shelters, accessible early warning systems, age-sensitive evacuation protocols, and community resilience hubs.
• Strengthening community-based care: Train community health workers in geriatric and climate-related health risks and expand elder day-care centres that double as cooling and support centres.
• Expanding social protection: Implement climate-responsive pensions and cash transfers that automatically support older persons in disaster-affected areas.
• Evidence-based planning: Invest in targeted research and a national geriatric database to inform policy and long-term planning.

Further measures should include strengthening geriatric healthcare services at all provincial hospitals, expanding home-based care, supporting family caregivers through allowances and respite services, improving financial security through inflation-indexed pensions, addressing social isolation and mental health, reducing digital exclusion, and improving governance through a coordinated national framework on ageing and climate resilience.

Policy framework and institutional response

Sri Lanka urgently requires a coherent policy framework to protect its ageing population in the era of climate change. Such a framework must be anchored in a clear national vision: a climate-resilient, age-inclusive Sri Lanka, where older persons are able to live with dignity, security, and meaningful participation in society, while being effectively shielded from climate-related risks through coordinated policy action and strong community systems.

At its core, this policy approach must be guided by the principle of leaving no one behind, in line with the Sustainable Development Goals. Climate adaptation and disaster preparedness cannot remain age-neutral; they must explicitly recognise the disproportionate vulnerabilities faced by older persons and ensure age-inclusive climate justice. Equally important is the strengthening of intergenerational solidarity, recognising that resilience is built not only through institutions, but through families and communities that support one another across age groups.

The framework should promote community-based responses that are firmly backed by institutional support. While families and local networks remain central to elder care in Sri Lanka, they cannot shoulder this responsibility alone — particularly under growing climate stress. Public institutions must therefore play a facilitative and enabling role, ensuring that community initiatives are adequately resourced, technically supported, and integrated into national systems.

A rights-based approach must underpin all policy measures, drawing on the United Nations (UN) principles for older persons, including independence, participation, care, self-fulfillment, and dignity. Older citizens should be recognised not merely as beneficiaries of welfare, but as rights holders whose protection and inclusion are a matter of social justice and good governance.

Crucially, this policy direction demands inclusive governance. Responsibility for ageing and climate resilience must not remain fragmented across sectors. Instead, a coordinated mechanism is required to connect all institutions involved in human care — health, social services, housing, transport, and disaster management — with agencies responsible for climate adaptation and environmental protection. Only through such integrated and cross-sectoral governance can Sri Lanka build a resilient system capable of safeguarding its ageing population in an increasingly volatile climate.

A stark warning

In the aftermath of recent climate-related disasters, Sri Lanka must confront a sobering reality. As the UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned in July 2023, “The era of global warming has ended; the era of global boiling has arrived.” For Sri Lanka, this means that every policy decision — across health, housing, transport, and social protection — must be evaluated through a climate lens.

The failure to act now risks turning demographic ageing and climate change into a combined humanitarian and economic crisis. Preparedness, inclusion, and resilience are no longer optional; they are imperatives for the nation’s future.

The writer is an architect and sustainability consultant

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The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect those of this publication