As the world enters the fifth month of the Donald Trump 2.0 presidency, the overturn of the rules-based order has been hastened beyond rates previously comprehended. 

While the world economy continues to grapple with the Trump tariffs, regional blocs and global alliances are being reshaped in preparation for a tilt away from the post-Cold War order towards an Asian-dominated hierarchy.

Indo-Pak tensions

In South Asia, the past few weeks have seen focus turn back to renewed India-Pakistan tensions following the terror attacks in Pahalgam in the northern union territory of Jammu and Kashmir, which India claimed to have originated from Pakistan. 

While the two nuclear neighbours have dominated headlines around the world, the South Asian bloc found itself relegated to being a mere spectator in the growing conflict in its own backyard. Over a period of four days, hostilities between the two countries continued to escalate. 

As India launched missile and drone strikes on the Nur Khan Airbase near Rawalpindi, concerns were raised about the proximity to the Headquarters of Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division, which is responsible for the command and control of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. 

Following this attack the US, which had previously announced that it would not be involving itself in the conflict, engaged the two nations and appeared to mediate a ceasefire. While Pakistan was quick to acknowledge the US’s role, India remained silent on any possible involvement by the US in ensuring a ceasefire. 

While much has been written on the conflict and the subsequent US-India-Pakistan tripartite talks, there has been little commentary on the absence of a unified voice from the rest of South Asia. In fact, the bloc remained silent during the conflict, with the neighbouring states offering half-hearted statements following the announcement of the ceasefire. 

An all-out war between India and Pakistan will not only destabilise the South Asian region but will most certainly have a knock-on effect on global trade as well, thereby halting Asia’s impressive march forward. 

Since 2000, the total global trade conducted through the South Asian region has grown from 2% to over 5%. With over 43% of South Asia’s total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contributed to by trade, demonstrating the importance of this sector, disruptions to global supply routes or forced diversions caused by a conflict in the region would leave a lasting impact on the neighbourhoods’ economies. 

China’s march westward

As Trump takes the US down a path of personal vendettas and into unclear territory regarding its foreign policy, the rest of the global and regional powers are re-aligning themselves. 

Irrespective of the growing divide between China and the Global North witnessed in recent years, the introduction of Trumponomics has made for strange bedfellows. Despite continued concerns from the European Union (EU) over certain trade practices carried out by China, there has been an injection of vigour in the trade talks between the two markets, suggesting that economic growth will trump previous animosity. 

Separately, China has continued its march westward into the Asian region, with the recent opening of the new Iran-China railway line. This is part of a broader East-West corridor, which has seen China attempt to increase its connectivity through the Persian Gulf and Africa up to Europe. 

While China stands to benefit from the growing connectivity with the West Asian and European markets, Iran, which continues to find itself on the receiving end of US-led sanctions, has opened a new route to the Chinese markets devoid of US interference. 

Running through Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan into China, this new rail link has bypassed Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan, which would have been a more direct route. Yet South Asia is the scene of two major connectivity projects, both of which promise to drive up economic growth. 

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which was launched in 2015, promises to create a connectivity network across land and sea, making Pakistan integral in China’s expansion through West Asia. However, persistent security concerns and political upheaval in Pakistan has seen this initiative face continued delays. 

Similarly, the Chabahar Port Agreement, which will see India and Iran increase their respective connectivity, continues to face obstacles caused by India being forced to balance relations between the West and Iran, while Pakistan and China have continued to oppose this attempt by India to expand into West Asia. 

While the competition between India and China to develop the Chabahar Port in Iran and the Gwadar Port in Pakistan, respectively, does present the possibility of an ‘infrastructure development war,’ this will certainly be more palatable than the ongoing military conflicts in the region. If managed successfully, healthy competition will offer the opportunity for an economic boom for the two South Asian neighbours. 

However, the recent instability in the region does present an impediment to these possibilities. The India-Pakistan conflict last month was not the sole disruption, but rather was an addition to the growing list of encumbrances that has seen connectivity in the region no longer remain a priority.   

SL’s push for connectivity

In Sri Lanka, there has been a continued back and forth on the pursuance of connectivity with neighbouring countries. 

Under former President Ranil Wickremesinghe, Sri Lanka once again embarked upon a series of integration projects with India, including the national grid connectivity which would allow Sri Lanka to sell its excess electricity. Alongside reducing power generation costs, increasing foreign earnings, and expanding the renewable energy sector in the country, grid connectivity would have also increased South India’s reliance on Sri Lanka. 

Infrastructure connectivity projects were also explored with the much-discussed land bridge connectivity project having once again featured prominently in discussions between the two countries. It has been estimated that transport costs in Sri Lanka-India trade would lower by as much as 50% should the bridge be constructed, while providing Sri Lanka with enhanced access to India’s 1.4 billion-strong domestic market. 

With the change in government in 2024, the Leftist National People’s Power (NPP) has since cooled on the push for the connectivity projects, resulting in observers predicting that these initiatives will fall by the wayside yet again. 

The expanded connectivity network between India and Sri Lanka has been under discussions since the 1980s; in the ensuing 40 years little to no progress has been made, in large part due to the dominance of nationalist governments in Sri Lanka from the 1990s onwards.

Lessons from ASEAN

In contrast, connectivity has proven to be a key factor behind the impressive economic growth of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in the past 30 years. Despite its diverse political, ethnic, and religious communities, the commitment by the bloc to drive forth integration among its member states has been integral in ASEAN’s continued economic success. 

Infrastructure connectivity has not only been the main driving force behind the region’s impressive economic growth but has also encouraged social cohesion and cultural connections. Commitment to this vision has contributed to ASEAN’s continued growth, allowing it to pursue its goal of replicating the EU’s success. 

The Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity (MPAC), which was first developed in 2010, has identified the integration of member states into a single network of infrastructural, digital, and people-to-people connectivity. 

Several years following the development of the MPAC, the World Bank published the ‘Enhancing ASEAN Connectivity Monitoring and Evaluation’ report, which stated that if the number of days taken to export goods reduced by one, intra-ASEAN export volumes was expected to increase by nearly 8%. These predictions have validated the bloc’s commitment to increasing its connectivity among the member states. 

Under the updated MPAC 2025, a continuously updating list of infrastructure projects has been developed by ASEAN, which aims to improve the movement of people, goods, and services across the region. To date, the investment value under this initiative has exceeded $ 15 billion, demonstrating a continued attentiveness to the strategy compiled nearly 15 years ago.  

Dissimilar to ASEAN, connectivity in the South Asian bloc has not been made a priority among the member states. The inability of the South Asian bloc to move beyond the existing political stumbling blocks has meant that connectivity and economic integration has fallen by the wayside. While the international markets have not turned their backs on the region, South Asia is running the risk of being bypassed by blocs such as ASEAN and China. 

An impending risk

According to PricewaterhouseCoopers’ (PwC) ‘The World in 2050,’ it is predicted that by 2050, six of the top 30 economies will be based in the ASEAN region, three of the top 30 will be in West Asia, and three of the top 30 economies will be in South Asia (India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh). A connectivity route linking ASEAN to West Asia, running through South Asia, provides the region with an opportunity to become a lynchpin in Asia’s economic growth. 

However, if South Asia and its member states are incapable of finding a way to drive forth intra-regional connectivity, then countries such as Sri Lanka run the risk of finding themselves on the outside looking in at the Asian economic boom.

(The writer is an international affairs and public policy consultant, having previously served as the Director of International Affairs to former President Ranil Wickremesinghe)