In South Asia, popular uprisings have toppled three Governments in three years. First, Sri Lanka’s ‘Aragalaya’ people’s uprising in mid-2022 brought the Rajapaksa regime to an end. Second, in August 2024, the Bangladesh uprising overthrew the Government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Third, earlier this month, a similar popular uprising in Nepal brought down the Government led by Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli.
President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Prime Minister Hasina fled the country during the uprisings. But Nepal’s Prime Minister Oli, who stepped down on 9 September, has sought protection from the military. While Rajapaksa returned to the country in a few weeks, Hasina took refuge in India. Bangladesh’s interim Government has asked for her extradition to stand trial on various charges, but India is unlikely to comply.
Two years after the popular uprising in Sri Lanka, a peaceful transition of power took place in national elections with the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led National People’s Power (NPP) coming to power with a popular mandate. This change marked the first ‘achievement’ in Sri Lanka’s political history of a Left-wing party taking power through democratic elections.
In Bangladesh, an interim Government led by Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Muhammad Yunus will hold parliamentary elections next year and an interim Government has also taken over in Nepal following the uprising.
In the case of these three popular uprisings in South Asia, the Sri Lankan uprising was largely peaceful compared to the horrendous violence in Bangladesh or Nepal. But Sri Lanka has a historical significance as the first country in the South Asian region to topple an elected government through popular revolt.
The Nepali youth struggle
It is natural for students and youth to be at the forefront of the struggles. But the participation of young people in the Nepalese uprising symbolised, in an unprecedented way, the struggle of a particular generation of youth.
Young people born between the late 1900s and early 2010s are called Generation Z, a generation for whom being online is a way of life. They were born between 1997 and 2012 and are between the ages of 13 and 28. The movement called Hami Nepal (We are Nepal) demanding wide-ranging reforms led the struggle against the Government on behalf of Gen Z.
Protests and agitations are not new to Nepal. For more than a decade in the latter half of the last century, the country suffered great losses and destruction due to the armed revolution of Maoist communists. But why has the younger generation of a certain age now taken to the streets of Nepal?
On 28 August, the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) (CPN-UML)-led Government imposed a one-week deadline to register all social media with the Nepal Telecommunications Authority. On 4 September, the Government banned 26 social media platforms (including Facebook, X, and WhatsApp) after none of the major social media platforms took cognisance of the announcement.
The Government’s ban on social media was viewed by the people, especially the younger generation, as a censorship and a restriction on access to information. The Government did not foresee the consequences of such a ban in a country where more than half the population uses the internet extensively. It is estimated that among the Nepali population of 30 million, almost 16.5 million are active users of the internet.
On 8 September, 19 people were killed and more than 100 injured in Police actions to control the protests by the youth who took to the streets. Demonstrations were held not only in the capital Kathmandu but also almost all over the country.
Although the Government lifted the ban on social media on 9 September, the protests have not subsided. Last week’s violence in Nepal was the worst in recent years. Political leaders were attacked, their houses were burnt, and protesters set fire to Government buildings, including the Parliament, Presidential Palace, and Supreme Court.
The peaceful protest by the younger generation against the ban on social media eventually turned into a massive violent uprising. A BBC report says that Gen Z groups that spearheaded the protests distanced themselves from the destruction, saying their struggle had been hijacked.
However, the Nepal Army brought the chaotic situation under control in a couple of days. It is reported that at least 51 people were killed and hundreds injured in last week’s violence. The wife of a former Prime Minister was burned alive.
The failure of political leadership
CPN-UML Chairman Prime Minister Oli, Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba, and Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) Chairman Prachanda had already been accused of serious corruption and malpractices. There were even criticisms that corruption was holding these leaders, who were largely incompatible in terms of policies, together.
No one could stop the youth and the people, who were boiling over due to witnessing the families of rulers living in obscene luxury, from driving the Government out of power. The cry of a generation, outraged by political leaders who came to power after the fall of the monarchy and turned democracy into a dynasty and governance into a framework for personal gains, has shaken Nepal.
Nepal’s political leadership has failed to meet the aspirations of the people. The new political system of a federal democratic republic introduced by the Constitution passed in 2015 created many expectations among the people. However, in the end, the people suffered from political instability, slow economic growth, and corruption.
There have been 17 governments in Nepal in the last 15 years. The leaders who led the Maoist insurgency and other communist leaders have also served as prime ministers. But there was a disconnect between the politicians and the people.
There is a lesson for the leaders of the JVP – the flagship political party of the NPP – from the failure of the regimes of the Nepali communist leaders, who led the popular struggles that ended the monarchy, to meet the aspirations of the people and the eventual rise of the people against them to oust them from power.
Like in Bangladesh, the military in Nepal plays a decisive role in determining the next stage of the political process. Nepal’s former Chief Justice, 73-year-old Sushila Karki was sworn in as Head of the interim Government on 12 September after lengthy talks held by President Ram Chandra Poudel with movements representing the younger generation, political parties, and the military.
Karki, the first female Chief Justice of Nepal (2016-’17), has also become the first woman to head the country’s administration. Her appointment became possible only after the President acceded to the demand of the youth movement for the immediate dissolution of Parliament.
It has been announced that members of the Hami Nepal movement will not participate in the interim administration. The interim Government also has to hold Parliamentary Elections within six months.
Future trajectory
The failure of nearly 20 years of democratic experimentation since the end of the monarchy raises disturbing questions about Nepal’s political future. The current crisis has to be understood in the broader context of the country’s chaotic democratic transition.
Even after two successful people’s movements (1990 and 2006), a comprehensive constitution-drafting process and a federal republican system, Nepal has not undergone meaningful change for the common people. There are pro-monarchy forces who are trying to exploit the situation to their advantage.
As for the three popular uprisings in South Asia, it is only in Sri Lanka that an interim government was not appointed. After Rajapaksa left the country and resigned from the post of President from Singapore, Ranil Wickremesinghe, the leader of the United National Party, was elected as the Executive President by Parliament in accordance with constitutional provisions.
NPP Leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake was elected President in the September 2024 Presidential Election. The NPP won more than two thirds of the seats in the 2024 Parliamentary Elections. Dissanayake will complete one year as President in a few days.
Parliamentary Elections are due to be held in Bangladesh early next year. The elections are expected to lead to a peaceful transition of power. Nepal’s future political trajectory depends on the approach that the emerging political alternative can adopt in order to handle the new crisis.
These South Asian uprisings clearly show that people in general are deeply disgusted with the corrupt and self-serving political class.
(The writer is a senior journalist based in Colombo)
(The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the official position of this publication)