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The double edged sword of domestic debt restructuring

The double edged sword of domestic debt restructuring

25 Jul 2023 | BY Sumudu Chamara

  • Think tank’s online survey sees continued engagement with, and the monitoring and evaluation of the DDR process as being crucial to allay dissatisfaction, uncertainty and concerns  

With regard to the ongoing domestic debt restructuring process, which is also known as domestic debt optimisation, while some express satisfaction with the related Governmental measures and optimism about the impact on the country’s economy, there is also a significant proportion of the respondents who express dissatisfaction, uncertainty, and concerns about various aspects of the process. The people’s responses regarding this process emphasises the importance of transparent communication, addressing public concerns, and ensuring that the process is aligned with the broader interests and well-being of the Sri Lankan population. 

This was part of the conclusion that a recent online survey on Sri Lankans’ perspectives on the ongoing domestic debt restructuring process conducted by the think tank South-South Research Initiative (SSRI) had reached, which stressed that in the above mentioned context, continued engagement, monitoring, and the evaluation of the domestic debt restructuring process will be crucial to ensure its effectiveness and positive outcomes for the country’s economy and its citizens. The survey results highlighted the diverse perspectives among the respondents regarding the Government’s measures, the impact on the banking system, and the expected impact on the country’s economy.

The survey 

With regard to awareness and understanding, the survey had assessed the participants’ level of awareness and understanding of the domestic debt restructuring process. The SSRI said that by examining the respondents’ knowledge and comprehension, it is possible to gauge the extent to which the general public is informed about this critical economic undertaking. Regarding the perception of Government efforts, the survey had sought to measure the perception of the Government’s efforts in addressing the domestic debt situation, and to achieve it, the participants had been asked to assess the effectiveness of the measures taken by the Government, evaluate their transparency and communication, and express their overall satisfaction or dissatisfaction with the process. In addition, the survey had also explored the participants’ perceptions of how the ongoing debt restructuring process might impact various socio-economic factors, such as employment, inflation, the cost of living, and public welfare, regarding which the SSRI said that understanding these concerns helps in identifying the broader implications of the restructuring process on the lives of ordinary Sri Lankans.

The survey had been designed to delve into the participants’ understanding of the domestic debt restructuring process, their perceptions of the Government’s efforts, and their expectations for the future.

SL onliners’ opinion

The SSRI noted that the data reveals mixed sentiments regarding satisfaction with Governmental measures implemented to restructure domestic debt, indicating the need for improved communication and public awareness. Only 17% of the respondents had expressed satisfaction, while 23% had expressed dissatisfaction and a significant majority of 60% had no clear idea or were uncertain about their satisfaction levels. Adding that these findings underscore the importance of engaging in effective communication strategies in order to enhance public understanding of the restructuring process and its objectives, the SSRI explained: “Views on the domestic debt restructuring impact on the banking system and the country’s economy are divided, with a range of concerns and expectations raised. Regarding the impact on the banking system, 25% of the respondents believe in a positive impact, 32% perceive a negative impact, and 43% remain uncertain. Concerns were raised about potential liabilities associated with bonds, the possible decrease in interest rates, and the Government’s decision to maintain the exchange rate, which could have adverse consequences. These findings emphasise the need for the comprehensive evaluation of the potential impact on the banking sector and clear communication to address concerns raised by the respondents. Similarly, Sri Lankans’ opinions on domestic debt restructuring and its impact on the country’s economy are varied. While 27% of the respondents believe in a positive impact, 31% express a negative viewpoint, and 42% remain uncertain. Concerns were raised about the potential negative consequences on the public’s standard of living, particularly in relation to the restructuring of pension funds such as the Employees Provident Fund (EPF). It is crucial for the Government to address these concerns and effectively communicate the broader economic benefits and safeguards in place to mitigate any negative effects.”

The SSRI explained that the comments from the participants provide further context and highlight the importance of considering the political environment and decision making processes surrounding the domestic debt restructuring process. Mixed opinions had been expressed about the Government’s role and intentions with some expressing hope and confidence in the plan, while others had expressed skepticism and perceived it as mere theatrics. These comments, the SSRI said, underscore the need for transparency, consistent execution, and inclusive decision making so as to build trust and credibility in the Government’s actions.

The SSRI said that in conclusion, the research emphasises the importance of effective communication, transparency, and addressing concerns raised by the public, and that the Government should engage in comprehensive evaluations of the economic impacts, carefully manage the impact on the banking system, and implement measures to safeguard public well-being. By implementing these recommendations, it added that the Government can foster public trust, address concerns, and guide the ongoing domestic debt restructuring process effectively in order to achieve sustainable economic stability and growth in Sri Lanka.

Diverse views

The respondents’ had expressed diverse opinions about a number of matters discussed via the survey. With regard to the relevant political environment and decision making processes, while some had highlighted concerns about the insecure political environment and its potential impact on decision making regarding domestic debt restructuring, there had been a suggestion that decisions related to the restructuring process may not be reached in a positive manner due to the current political climate.

Regarding the impact on the banking system, the comments had indicated varying views on the impact of the restructuring process on the banking system, with some suggesting that the banking system may not be adversely affected, but highlighting the potential liabilities associated with bonds and the long term desirability of restructuring for banks. There has also been an expectation that interest rates may decrease as a result of the process, which is seen as a non-positive approach for banks. The SSRI added that concerns had been raised about the Government’s decision to maintain the Sri Lankan Rupee exchange rate, which could lead to a United States Dollar deficit and high demand for the currency.

When it comes to the impact on the public, some comments had expressed concerns about the potential negative consequences of the restructuring process on the general public’s standard of living and day to day life, while the restructuring of pension funds, including the EPF, was seen as a cause for worry about the well-being of the working people.

Trust and execution are other aspects of the survey that had received mixed responses, especially regarding the Government’s role and intentions in the restructuring process. Some comments had expressed hope and confidence in the plan, emphasising the importance of consistent execution without interruptions or changes to support specific powerful entities, while on the other hand, one comment had suggested skepticism, stating that the Government is merely putting on a show.

In addition, regarding procedures and problems, one comment had highlighted concerns about the problematic nature of the procedure involved in the restructuring process.

“Overall, the comments reflect a range of opinions, including both support and skepticism, regarding the domestic debt restructuring process. There are concerns about the potential impact on the public, the influence of the political environment, the execution of the plan, and the effectiveness of the procedure. These diverse perspectives underline the need for open dialogue, transparency, and effective communication to address concerns, build trust, and ensure that the restructuring process aligns with the broader interests and well-being of the Sri Lankan population,” the SSRI added.



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