The just-concluded Local Government Elections were supposed to be just that – elections with focus on grassroots-level local bodies that rarely elicit much excitement beyond the local councils. However, from the word go, the National People’s Power (NPP) Government had other ideas. Already enjoying near-absolute power with both the executive presidency and total parliamentary control under its belt, it wanted more. So, Sri Lanka’s voters were called upon to exercise their franchise for the third time in the last eight months and how they have reacted in each of these instances is fascinating.
Having raised the profile of the usually obscure poll to one of national importance, the NPP may have hoped that it could repeat its last performance, where it polled an impressive 6.8 million votes at the General Elections in November. In its eagerness to leverage on this success, the party claimed that it would not be able to deliver what it promised at the last two polls if it did not have control of the 340 local bodies as well. Its argument was that whatever the Central Government decided by way of policy needed to be effectively implemented at the grassroot level through councils it controlled. The party even went to the extent of threatening to withhold funds to councils other than its own.
However, voters appear to have had other ideas. Not only was there a 2.3 million reduction in the number of votes the NPP received at the last election just six months ago (a 30% decline), but it also received an unambiguous reminder from the public to walk the talk and deliver what it promised at the last two polls. By ensuring that Opposition parties received more overall votes than the NPP, the people have been emphatic in empowering the collective Opposition to act as a counterbalance to the Government at the local level.
For all intents and purposes, the NPP was the singular beneficiary of the people’s protest vote at both the Presidential and General Elections last year. Of late, it has become the norm that political parties do not win elections in this country based on policy per se, but rather by default over the level of disappointment with the previous party in power. But as any seasoned politician will know, such support is fickle and entirely dependent on performance. For such support to be sustained, the new regime needs to fire on all cylinders from the word go and succeed where the previous one failed. Obviously, that has not been the case with the NPP, as evidenced from the results of the local poll.
Interestingly enough, one of the biggest losers of the poll yet again has been the United National Party (UNP), which unlike any of the other parties in the fray, has seen a deterioration of its vote base for the third consecutive time in the last eight months. The party should blame none other than its own ‘lifetime’ leadership, who could easily have changed the fortunes of the party if the election was held at its due time in 2023, when Party Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe was Executive President and doing a reasonably good job.
But timing has never been Wickremesinghe’s forte, always ending up on the wrong side of history. When the entire Parliament was demanding that the local polls be held in 2023, his response was that there was no money for the poll and, even if there was, there was no poll to be held despite a subsequent court order to hold the poll. It is such arrogance that has now made the party eat humble pie all over again – a recurring feature of Wickremesinghe’s party leadership over the course of the last three decades. While Wickremesinghe’s record keeps going from bad to worse, the absence of any meaningful reform has more or less sealed the party’s fate.
Meanwhile, the most impressive in terms of vote gain has been the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), the bad boy and outcast of the people’s revolution of 2022. Having hit rock bottom, plunging to 3% of the national vote from the 60% it enjoyed in 2020, the party, over the course of the last eight months, has managed to nearly triple its vote base from 340,000 last September to 950,000 last week.
The brand-new Sarvajana Balaya (SB) party has also more than doubled its vote base compared to last year’s Presidential Poll, while the Tamil parties in the north and east have regained what they lost last year. Interestingly the main Opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) has only managed a small gain of some 250,000 compared to the last poll. The leadership of the SJB will do well to keep an eye on both the SLPP and SB that are threatening to eat into its core base. The SJB leadership needs to be more politically agile and, rather than playing the traditional reactive role, at least now assert itself through proactive, aggressive action both in and out of Parliament if it is to avoid relegation to irrelevance, like its once-mighty maternal party, the UNP.
As far as the NPP is concerned, it too has its own share of learnings, most notably the mass rebuke it has received from the north and east, which once again has chosen to play safe and vote on communal lines, effectively ending the short-lived honeymoon with the NPP. The lack of any genuine attempts to heal old wounds and unite the north and the south over the course of the last seven months could be blamed for Tamil voters once again seeking safety in their own. If the NPP assumed that the opening of roads and returning of military-occupied land and gold held in State custody would be enough to retain the support it enjoyed the last time, then it has obviously been mistaken. Regaining lost trust will not be that easy either.
The fact that just 4.5 million voted for the NPP out of 17 million eligible voters is hardly the kind of argument that will win it points for seizing control of councils it does not have a majority in despite winning those councils, considering the fact that the greater majority of 12.5 million voters either did not bother to vote or voted against the party. Given Sri Lanka’s constitutional democracy, any party has the right to form coalitions with like-minded parties as long as they are in accordance with the expressed will of the people.
Such alliances are likely to dominate the grassroot political landscape given the fact that even though the NPP has won a majority of the Local Government bodies, the party is not in a position to form an administration as the collective Opposition has more seats, making governance impossible. Out of the 340 local bodies, the NPP has outright control of only about 100, making the formation of alliances a prerequisite for the formation of administrations in the rest of the local bodies it has won, including the Colombo Municipal Council.
While the debate rages on about the ethics of the losing Opposition parties ganging up to gain control of local councils, it is nevertheless part and parcel of the democratic process which the NPP too is entitled to, as long as such actions do not violate the will of the people or its own diktat. While Opposition parties can align themselves with each other as their votes essentially represent those against the NPP, the NPP however will find it difficult to align with an Opposition party even in the garb of independents in order to secure a majority, as it contravenes its own mandate. In fact, the NPP itself emphasised prior to the election that it would not forge alliances and would go it alone instead; it is on that basis that people voted.
Just as much as the people have chosen the local poll to send a cautionary notice to the Government, a similar message has been sent to the Opposition as well, judging by the split support with the underlying message being to unite in order to form a substantial challenge to the Government and compel it to deliver what it promised.
The NPP also needs to understand that even though it routinely brands Opposition parties as rogues and thieves, more people have made the conscientious decision to vote for them collectively instead of the NPP at the last local poll. Since the people are the sovereign, their view is what matters in the end.