• World Bank-funded upgrade cut from 3 years to 18 months: Officials
• No major software upgrades in over 2 decades despite rising climate risks
• New Doppler radar from Japan expected to improve rainfall and lightning prediction
• DMC integrating AI-driven decision system for early warnings
• Authorities warn inaccurate forecasts could disrupt agriculture, local economies

As global climate volatility continues to threaten island nations, Sri Lanka is currently modernising its weather monitoring and prediction capabilities. 

State agencies are working to transition from outdated infrastructure to highly advanced, data-driven systems. However, this critical transition is currently facing significant hurdles, ranging from severely compressed project deadlines imposed by international funders to a stark lack of advanced domestic technology.

The National Meteorological Centre of the Department of Meteorology, the Disaster Management Centre (DMC), and the National Aquatic Resources Research and Development Agency (NARA) are the three primary State institutions leading this transformation. 

Through international collaborations, significant budget allocations, and new technological implementations, these agencies are racing against time to protect vulnerable coastal and agricultural communities from increasingly erratic environmental hazards.

Modernising the Met Dept.

The most pressing development regarding the nation’s weather forecasting capabilities revolves around an ongoing, large-scale modernisation project at the Department of Meteorology. Funded by a World Bank loan, this initiative is designed to completely upgrade the technological infrastructure of the department. However, administrative pressures and drastically shortened timelines have placed the entire project in a precarious position.

Department of Meteorology Additional Director General – Observation Networks and Instruments Ajith Wijemannage shed light on the intense pressure his department was facing at present.

“The modernisation project is currently happening, and it is supposed to be finished by 31 December under a World Bank loan. It is a project that was originally supposed to be completed in three years, but we have been instructed to finish it in 18 months, making it a very difficult task. We have gone everywhere, from the ministry to the Treasury, to ask for an extension for this project, but we have not received a positive answer yet,” he said.

Despite these modernisation efforts, the core software and prediction methodologies have remained largely static for the past two decades. The department relies heavily on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, which process observational data through complex equations to generate forecasts. These forecasts are currently capable of predicting weather patterns for the next day and extending up to 10 days in advance.

When asked about specific software upgrades implemented since the devastating 2004 tsunami, Wijemannage said: “No software upgrades have happened, and we are still using the same ones. Nothing special has happened in that regard. 

“However, we do have the capability to predict major disasters. When we predict such events, we do not give the exact amount of rainfall directly from the models, but we predict the maximum value we have recorded in our history. In some past instances, the rainfall has gone beyond those historical maximums, but we have certainly improved our methods compared to before.”

The awaited Doppler radar system

One of the most highly anticipated technological upgrades for the Department of Meteorology is the installation of a new Doppler radar system. This equipment is vital for a tropical island nation situated in the Bay of Bengal, where weather patterns are notoriously difficult to predict compared to regions with strict seasonal climates.

The previous attempt to establish a functional Doppler radar network in the country ended in failure. Disaster Management Centre (DMC) Director – Preparedness Planning Chathura Liyanaarachchi explained the historical context behind the current radar deficit.

“Unfortunately, the earlier Doppler radar established in Gongala did not work. It took several years to set up, and because of that, it is now outdated. According to meteorologists, at least two Doppler radars are needed, but having at least one will be good enough for our current needs,” he said.

The new Doppler radar is being supported by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and is currently under construction in Japan. Once completed, it will be transported to Sri Lanka and installed in the Puttalam District. While the project is moving forward, the timeline for its operational readiness is still several years away. Furthermore, the necessary second radar unit has not yet been procured.

“The Puttalam radar is not functioning yet, but it will be finished by the end of July 2027. We have not ordered the second radar unit yet,” Liyanaarachchi said.

Once the Puttalam radar is finally active, it will drastically revolutionise how the Meteorology Department and the DMC handle localised weather threats. The technology possesses specific capabilities that current satellite imagery simply cannot replicate.

“The new Doppler radar has different capabilities and can accurately predict the exact amount of rainfall. Earlier, predictions would only state that rainfall would be above 150 mm, but with the Doppler, they can specify the exact amount of rainfall expected. It can also detect the differences between electrical charges to predict lightning, allowing us to warn relevant district officials about specific areas at risk. Furthermore, it facilitates nowcasting, meaning we can predict weather events two hours in advance.”

For longer-term seasonal forecasting, such as predicting the behaviour of the southwest and northeast monsoons, Sri Lankan authorities rely on regional forums. The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum is the primary body responsible for these long-range predictions, and it is scheduled to publish its comprehensive forecast for the upcoming southwest monsoon on Wednesday (6).

Transforming disaster management and early warnings

The data provided by the Meteorology Department serves as the foundation for the DMC, which is currently executing its own massive technological overhaul under the Climate Resilience Improvement Project (CRIP) Phase 2. This World Bank-funded initiative is designed to develop the capacities of various technical agencies, including the Department of Meteorology, the National Building Research Organisation (NBRO), and the Irrigation Department, while seamlessly linking their data streams directly to the DMC.

Project management units have already been established to oversee this integration. The initiative will see the complete refurbishment of the Emergency Operation Centre at the DMC, alongside the upgrading of 25 district offices into fully functional, round-the-clock operation centres.

To process the vast amounts of incoming environmental data, the DMC has awarded a contract for a highly sophisticated software infrastructure that will remove human error from emergency decision-making.

“We have awarded a contract for a Decision Support System, which links all technical and related risk information to an Application Programming Interface using Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning to make decisions. Both the refurbishment of our centres and the implementation of the Decision Support System will happen by the end of 2027,” Liyanaarachchi stated.

While AI and radar systems handle atmospheric threats, the DMC also maintains strict protocols for oceanic hazards. Following the 2004 disaster, the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System was established. Sri Lanka is a member country and relies on three primary service providers for emergency bulletins: the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, and Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG).

These agencies monitor the seabed for specific seismic triggers. A tsunami warning bulletin is only dispatched to the Tsunami National Contact at the DMC if a seabed earthquake exceeds a magnitude of 6.5 and occurs at a depth of less than 10 km. Satellite imagery is entirely useless for detecting an incoming tsunami because the tidal wave travels below the ocean surface at speeds of up to 1,000 kmph, with a crest length of 10 km but a surface height of merely 1 cm.

However, satellites remain highly effective for monitoring other severe natural phenomena. Satellite images are routinely used to predict cyclones, deep depressions, flooding, forest fires, and even prolonged drought conditions resulting from extreme surface heat.

Because Sri Lanka is prone to highly intense rainfall, floods, droughts, and landslides, Liyanaarachchi stressed that accurate forecasting was essential to prevent false alarms that could cripple the local economy.

“If we do not have a proper forecast, people may pre-emptively harvest their crops, which will definitely impact the economy and the agricultural sector. These are highly sensitive issues, which is why we need strong technological collaboration with regional entities to secure accurate warnings. We need to sensitise the community and bind them to these warnings, ensuring they act responsibly when alerts are issued for vulnerable areas.”

Liyanaarachchi further stated that while cyclones frequently developed in the Bay of Bengal, the Coriolis force typically directed these catastrophic storms towards Myanmar and Bangladesh rather than Sri Lanka.

Oceanic monitoring and assisting fisheries

While atmospheric and seismic threats are handled by the DMC and the Department of Meteorology, the day-to-day monitoring of the ocean’s health and resources falls under the jurisdiction of NARA. The agency is responsible for tracking sea levels, wave currents, high and low tides, and overall marine biodiversity in collaboration with the Sri Lanka Navy.

NARA Deputy Director General Dr. K.H.M.L. Amaralal detailed the agency’s current technological footprint. NARA’s Oceanography Division relies heavily on satellite communication technology to monitor the seas, working in close collaboration with international academic partners, including an Australian university.

Satellite data is essential for NARA to measure critical marine indicators such as sea surface temperatures, precise sea levels, and chlorophyll values. This data is not just used for academic research; it is actively packaged and delivered to the local fishing industry to support fishers’ livelihoods and improve their operational efficiency.

“Using satellite data, NARA produces weekly information charts for multi-day fishermen, providing them with sea conditions and showing where fish are available. The boatmen can use our information to reduce their sailing time. They receive these weekly updates directly on their mobile phones through a partnership with the Dialog network,” Dr. Amaralal said.

Recognising the vital importance of this service, the Government has provided substantial financial backing to ensure NARA can maintain and expand its forecasting operations.

“We received Rs. 100 million from the Budget specifically for ocean forecasting data for fishermen. We have another funding allocation from the Government Budget for sea level monitoring. Currently, we operate monitoring centres in Trincomalee, Devundara, and Colombo, as well as with the Navy. Following recommendations from our Technical Advisory Committee, we are going to expand our network to cover a wider range, establishing up to seven monitoring centres.”

Historically, NARA faced geographical limitations in its data collection, particularly in the conflict-affected regions of the island. However, Dr. Amaralal confirmed that these blind spots had been entirely resolved.

“We previously had issues monitoring the north and east, but we are now covering all areas. We even have a sea-level station deployed and working in the north. We do not have issues with geographical areas, but we still need more advanced technology,” he said.

Int’l collaborations and deep-sea research

To acquire the advanced technology required for comprehensive oceanographic monitoring, NARA is actively looking beyond Sri Lanka’s borders. The equipment required to effectively monitor the ocean is worth millions, far exceeding the agency’s standard budgetary constraints.

Dr. Amaralal added: “We visited China last month and asked them to help us acquire modern technology and equipment. We have signed Memoranda of Understanding with China and are also looking for support from India. We are having discussions with the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research – National Institute of Oceanography (CSIR-NIO) to obtain satellite data from it, and the Indian Embassy has agreed to work collaboratively with us.”

This push for international collaboration recently culminated in a highly significant scientific event. The United Nations research vessel Dr. Fridtjof Nansen arrived at the Colombo Port in March following a month-long expedition in Sri Lankan waters. The vessel previously conducted surveys in Sri Lanka during the early months of 1978 and again in 2018. While the 2018 expedition only covered a small coastal area, the recent month-long voyage allowed researchers to cover a massive expanse of the deep sea.

The primary objective of the Dr. Fridtjof Nansen’s voyage was to conduct a thorough fisheries stock assessment, determining exactly how much marine life can be sustainably extracted from both coastal and deep-sea waters. However, the advanced technology aboard the vessel also allowed for unprecedented biological discoveries.

“We are looking at what kind of species are available in our waters. Using the very advanced technology on the Dr. Fridtjof Nansen, researchers found some unconfirmed new species in our waters. In the Indian Ocean, there are species that nobody knows about, and we will analyse these findings following the vessel’s arrival on 5 May at the Colombo Port,” Dr. Amaralal said.