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Consensus is key

14 Aug 2022

“That government is best which governs least.” – Henry David Thoreau For a well-read man like the incumbent interim President of Sri Lanka, the words of Henry David Thoreau must surely be echoing in his mind as he imposes one restrictive measure after another in order to put the lid on a people’s movement, of which he has been the main beneficiary on the one hand, and to create the conditions for introducing harsh economic reforms that will likely further anger people on the other. Notwithstanding the President’s political experience and acumen, this is unchartered territory; best tread lightly in deference to the mood of the people and for the sake of sanity. Thanks to his predecessor, Sri Lanka has metamorphosed from being the ‘Wonder of Asia,’ its much-hyped tourism promotional slogan, to the ‘Blunder of Asia’. Just as much as the former administration made some of the biggest blunders in slashing taxes, banning chemical fertiliser imports, artificially manipulating the exchange rate, and delaying engagement with the IMF, so too is the present administration in antagonising the West with its relentless crackdown on dissent. Ironically, both the former and the present appear to be convinced in the belief that they were/are doing the right thing, only to realise later the folly of their actions. It is unfathomable at this juncture that the great majority of the 225 members of Parliament have comprehensively failed to understand the fundamental reality that the issue facing the nation today is not merely a domestic one but one that has ‘international’ written all over it, given the external debt burden and complete dependence on foreign help going forward. The matter of adequately comprehending the scale of the issue at hand is further compounded by a less-than-competent bureaucracy, packed to the rafters with clueless political henchmen and women – most of whom don’t know whether they are coming or going. It is this bureaucracy that must necessarily act as the insulation between skewed Government policy and the national interest. When that all-important layer of insulation is made redundant for no other reason than incompetence or capitulation to political pressure, it is the people who are forced to face the brunt of poor policy. It is the nation’s misfortune that on top of a less-than-effective political leadership, the administrative service has shown a distinct inability to pick up the slack, leading to skewed political policy-making, as in the case of the unsolicited tax cuts that precipitated the present economic crisis.  The subservient and ineffective State service is a far cry from the civil service of yore that had men and women of stature and integrity who would rarely miss an opportunity to speak their mind when political decision-making was not in line with national interests. The impact of skewed Government policy, past and present, could have been mitigated to a great extent if the State sector had acted professionally as opposed to being the servile lapdogs of politicians. Obviously sensing the inherent weaknesses of a failed system, it is now the turn of the nation’s biggest lenders to flex their muscles to demand their pound of flesh in furtherance of their own geopolitical ambitions. As we write, a Chinese ‘surveillance’ ship is roaming the seas just south of Hambantota, awaiting the green light to call at port, while an agitated big brother neighbour is pulling all the strings it can to ward off the visit. This geopolitical tug-o-war between the two Asian giants has placed tiny Sri Lanka in an unenviable position of not antagonising the other, given the ramifications involved in the complex economic recovery process. Already the IMF has made it clear that any request for assistance must be first accompanied with a debt sustainability plan. The first debtor on that list is China. The other most important factor averred to by the IMF in all but word is the establishment of a stable administration that can potentially oversee the complete economic reform programme, which by conservative estimates will stretch way beyond the maximum tenure of the current administration. Given the status quo, the best way to go about the matter would be for the administration to first come up with a workable minimum programme of action for a specified time period. Thereafter, once it is put on the table, all parties could agree on it, after which a specified time frame can be agreed upon for early elections on the premise that whoever takes over thereafter will be obligated to oversee the subsequent implementation of an IMF-backed reform programme to its conclusion. Such a course of action will provide the comfort that the IMF and other lenders are seeking. Even though that would necessarily be the most logical way to go about what is definitely the most decisive administrative challenge ever faced by a government in this country, what is happening today is the exact opposite, with members of Parliament being lured into what will eventually pass off for an all-party national government with little or no agreement on policy in the absence of a minimum programme. With 16 previous IMF programmes never seeing completion due to political changes, it is likely that the Bretton Woods twin will be more cautious in its approach this time around given the magnitude of the crisis at hand that requires long-term reforms far beyond the tenure of one government. Taking a more holistic view of the crisis, the influential EU Delegation in the country has made it clear to the President during a one-on-one last week that other attendant issues are also of equal importance. These include all party consensus on the way forward, ensuring human rights in accordance with Sri Lanka’s international commitments, revitalisation of the reconciliation process, and, most importantly, setting in motion the complex procedure to recover stolen assets via the Stolen Assets Recovery Initiative facilitated by the World Bank and UN agencies. Questions have also been raised as to the necessity for the continuation of the State of Emergency. It is somewhat baffling as to why the President has been conspicuous in his avoidance of the subject of recovering stolen assets. Given the crisis at hand, under normal circumstances, recovery of assets should be top of the agenda and not an afterthought, as appears to be the case. The silence of the Presidential Secretariat on this particular issue is deafening to say the least and doesn’t in any way help counter the growing perception of a nexus between the past and present leadership. It is also not lost on the international community that much of what the President spelled out in his policy statement by way of proposed reforms goes against the grain of what the rank and file of the SLPP has stood for and whether the 134 members who voted for the President will continue to do so when unpalatable reforms are put before the House is debatable at best. Therefore, in the absence of a national agenda, there is little or no point in an interim administration if its sole purpose is to merely put on a show for the international community that is insisting on a unified approach. Be that as it may, the first of the many utility price increase shocks that await the consumer was delivered last week. The thundering increase in electricity tariffs, coming as it were at the worst possible time for domestic as well as business consumers struggling with the prolonged economic downturn, will likely make a bad case worse. The tariff increase, camouflaged as an ‘average 75%’ increase, will in effect double or triple the average bill for nearly two-thirds of electricity consumers. The collective shock will likely manifest when the new billing cycle kicks in next month. For most people still reeling from the fuel and gas price shocks, both of which have risen by no less than 100% over the course of this year while salaries have remained stagnant, it will not only be a test of patience but also resilience, which Sri Lankans are known for. What is unconscionable is that the hapless consumer is being forced to pay for the corruption, inefficiency, and politicisation of these State sector giants. The fact that no reforms have been undertaken by these institutions prior to passing on the full burden of higher costs to the consumer is unacceptable and needs urgent review. Consumers have every right to question the authorities on the performance of these money guzzlers when the private sector has proven that the same services can be provided at a lesser cost. The case of Lanka Indian Oil Company (LIOC) making billions of rupees in profit while its competitor the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) is suffering huge losses is a case in point. The Lanka Electricity Company (LECO) is another. The level of corruption and inefficiency is highlighted by the CPC paying out over Rs. 400 million in overtime payments when its sheds were closed for the better part of July, while the Sapugaskanda Refinery had paid its staff many times that in overtime when the facility was shut down due to lack of crude oil. The CEB and CPC are symptomatic of the bigger issue of politicisation of State institutions that is bleeding this country dry. Therefore, the reform process should not only aim for minimal political influence in Government, but, more importantly, in governance. Per capita debt that stood at Rs. 125,000 in 2006 is nearly six times that today, with little to show by way of assets, with the country now officially bankrupt. Therefore even though the ‘people’s power’ symbolic site at Galle Face has now been cleared, the image of the historic human tsunami that swept across it for over 100 days, culminating in a massive wave on 9 July, can never be erased from the public conscience. It will serve as a constant reminder to every subsequent leader that it is the will of the people that will prevail. The empty landmass will be remembered as the grounds on which Sri Lanka achieved its second independence from its own disruptive leaders. Therefore, it would be good for our present leadership to keep in mind that out of sight is not necessarily out of mind.  


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