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Do or depart

19 Jun 2022

Sri Lanka’s descent to economic Armageddon appears to be unravelling much faster than anticipated, with a disturbing turn for the worse in the past week. The only progress seems to be in the number of meetings between officials, with a race between the President and the Prime Minister to hog the limelight, and hopefully take ownership of the monumental crisis in the making with the same level of enthusiasm. The not-so-secret battle of attrition between the two appears to be heating up with officials caught in the middle, second guessing which way to turn in the confusion that many suspected would follow the appointment of the new Prime Minister now very much a reality. As a result, the people’s worst nightmare seems to be unfolding right before their eyes, making a bad situation almost untenable, as two parallel power bases compete with each other rather than working in tandem, destroying any notion of stable leadership the Government may have wished to portray to the donor community. The fact of the matter is that even though the current Prime Minister appears to be genuinely attempting to get on top of things, his efforts are being undermined by a President who does not want to be seen as weak or having outsourced his job to the PM. Therein lies the rub, where one is trying to outwit the other while officialdom and the rest of the country are caught in between. Therefore it comes as no surprise that after the swearing-in of the PM over a month ago, the two are yet to meet, even though they have been busy meeting the same officials, one after the other, on a daily basis. This being the PM’s second consecutive marriage of political convenience, the first being with Maithripala Sirisena which ended on the rocks no sooner than it began, should have opened his eyes to the certainty that nothing is as it seems. Be that as it may, it is about time that the collective leadership understood the ground reality that the nation of Sri Lanka is bigger than their petty little egos; that people, without exception, are angry, fuming, and at the very end of their tether in the reasonable expectation of their leaders – elected and unelected – getting their act together even at this late hour. Mothers unable to feed their children are contemplating suicide and the elderly are dying in fuel queues, while the public sector has been asked to work from home and schools have once again been given ad hoc holidays. Now, exactly 40 days since the dramatic events of 9 May, the country is yet to be informed on the way forward or if, in fact, a plan exists to that effect. To the layman, the entire preoccupation of the leadership seems to be in securing the next fuel shipment by begging or borrowing. Having failed even in that singular pursuit, the country is now back to square one. Given this volatile situation, the high-handed action of the Police to crackdown on ordinary people simply venting their anger in record-breaking queues could not have come at a worse time. Last Friday (17), multiple incidents were reported, most notably in Kurunegala and Athurugiriya, where Police were alleged to have come down hard on frustrated and disappointed motorists, verbally venting their anger. If this trend continues, needless to say, the slide into anarchy will be that much quicker. Going by video evidence freely available on social media, it is apparent that the response of the cops in both instances was disproportionate to the issue at hand and the silence of the Minister in charge of Law and Order has been deafening, leading to the reasonable assumption that such conduct is in fact now official policy. Intimidating and arresting people standing for days in queues just 24 hours after two people died while waiting in queues for fuel and gas sends a dangerous message and if, as a result of this harebrained strategy or lack of it, things tend to get ugly, the Government will only have to blame itself for it. For all intents and purposes the latest Police strategy seems a re-enactment of the 9 May fiasco, where unruly elements were unleashed on peaceful protesters – and the rest is now dark history. In this instance, the cops have taken on the role of the mob. To date, there appears to be little or no inclination on the part of the authorities to bring to book those responsible for attacking ‘MainaGoGama’ and ‘GotaGoGama,’ including the shameful manner in which the Police failed to arrest one of the main instigators, former Minister Johnston Fernando, while the very same cops continue to be super-efficient in pursuing others accused of involvement in retaliatory action that occurred in response to the attacks. This imbalance in execution of duty has been well noted by a patient people and all it will take to ignite an entire nation is a spark like what happened in Kurunegala and Athurugiriya. Therefore it would be advisable for the cops to err on the side of caution in the greater interest of the nation at this critical juncture. Our leaders, most of them in their dotage, have personally been involved in and witnessed firsthand the perils of crushing dissent. Recent history of this scarred nation is rife with examples of such instances that ultimately led to wars and insurrections. When the democratic expression of anger is countered with an iron fist, the result is the creation of a fertile environment for the birth of an underground movement. The last time it happened was during the ’88/’89 era and rather interestingly, the former Prime Minister in his last address to the nation, days before the incidents of 9 May, referred to that very revolt and called on the people not to create the environment for a repeat. Even though the reference raised eyebrows at the time, the events of 9 May were a chilling reminder that the former PM seemed to have read the situation better than most. The donor community has been quite clear about its requirement for a stable administration; a call that has been consistent and essentially centred around strengthening Parliament. Our leaders are all too aware that the only way that can be achieved is by introducing the 21st Amendment, making the Government independent of the Executive. Once this is done, it will be necessary to seek a fresh mandate from the people as the present Parliament does not in any way reflect the current political ground realities. To cut a long story short, these were the same sentiments expressed by the Prime Minister at the time he took office, to which even the President agreed in principle. It is also the basis on which two dissidents of the main Opposition SJB joined the Prime Minister, supposedly to strengthen his hand on this specific matter. Now, however, all that seems like water under the bridge. Today the matter is routinely postponed at Cabinet meetings, citing some excuse or the other, probably hoping that the nation’s two-week memory span will kick in and everything will be forgotten. But the catch here is that the donor community does not suffer from such memory issues and is insistent on its basic criteria being fulfilled in order to lend a helping hand. In fact, just a couple of weeks ago the World Bank put out a reminder that an adequate ‘macroeconomic policy framework’ should be in place if Sri Lanka expected new financing. How much bigger should the writing on the wall be? At the very minimum, the Government will do well to show at least some degree of commitment to the passage of the 21st, given that the diligence being shown now was absent during the hurriedly-passed 20th, which is at the root of the nation’s problems today. Such a commitment will help to not just douse the rising anger among the people, but equally importantly reassure the donor community to stay the course. In the alternative, if the leaders continue to fiddle while the country burns, then it is inevitable that people will step in to do what is perceived as necessary to save the nation. The ‘Peoples’ Struggle’ which has been subdued for a while will now get back into gear, spurred on by the continuing witch hunt of its activists, crackdown on dissent, increasing shortages, skyrocketing cost of living, and lethargy in implementing the 21st Amendment. Since there is no impediment other than of a financial nature for Parliament to call for an election, it can easily be overcome by repurposing some already-budgeted resources towards conducting an election. For instance, the cost of conducting the last General Election in August 2020 was around Rs. 6 billion while the allocation, among others, for Defence Ministry ‘projects’ for 2022 is around Rs. 19 billion – more than three times that. At the end of the day, it is no one else but the country’s leadership that is making life miserable for the people. When a universally-accepted solution is well within grasp, it has chosen to look the other way. However, this growing intransigence on the part of the leadership has resulted in an unlikely beneficiary – the country’s main Opposition, whose so far unwavering stance in laying down conditions for joining a supposed unity government is being amply vindicated. Although its steadfast refusal to have any truck with the Government sans fulfilment of its conditions – one of which was the swift enactment of the 21st Amendment – was initially frowned upon as rank irresponsibility during the nation’s need of the hour, that principled stand is now earning it a groundswell of goodwill, with people beginning to realise the merit behind it, given the predicament facing the Prime Minister. The question being asked frequently these days is, what exactly is the President bringing to the table by remaining in that chair? Does he have something up his sleeve which the country is yet to see? The Opposition parties have been consistent in their stance that the moment he steps aside, they are ready to step in. At a time when the administration has clearly run out of ideas and, above all, credibility, it might be well worth the while to give those waiting in the wings a seat at the table. Sitting at rock bottom, this nation can fall no further other than into anarchy. Those in high positions must understand that people are not going to respect the law if that same law is starving them to death. With the writing clearly on the wall, Sri Lanka simply cannot afford to miss the bus once again simply due to the obstinacy of its leadership that appears determined to dig itself further into a hole when the world is still willing to throw in a lifeline.  

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