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Lifting lockdown could take deaths past 16,000: Study

27 Aug 2021

  • International study on SL paints grim picture
  • Points to clear trade-off between lives and economy
  • Says lockdown extension could cost economy up to $ 2.2 b
By The Morning News Team A World Health Organisation (WHO)-backed study has projected that Sri Lanka lifting its nationwide lockdown on Monday (30) with gradual relaxation afterwards could contribute to an eventual Covid-19-related death toll in the country of 16,700, but limit the economic impact of the lockdown to $ 1.1 billion, or 1.3% of GDP, The Morning learnt. However, the study has projected that an extension of the lockdown to 18 September would result in a death toll of 13,712 and an economic loss of $ 1.67 billion, while an extension of the lockdown to 2 October would result in an economic loss of $ 2.2 billion, but limit the total death toll to 10,400. The Government is scheduled to announce its decision on whether or not the Covid-19 quarantine curfew is to be extended beyond 30 August today (27).  According to the projection, which has been seen by The Morning, a 10-day lockdown ending on 30 August, followed by a gradual relaxation, would cost the economy $ 1.12 billion, or 1.3% of GDP; a four-week lockdown ending on 18 September would cost the economy $ 1.67 billion, or 1.9% of GDP; and a six-week lockdown ending on 2 October would cost the economy $ 2.22 billion, or 2.5% of GDP. The projection is contained in the report “Epidemiological and Economic Projections of Mitigation Measures for the Covid-19 Pandemic in Sri Lanka’s Roadmap” update issued on 26 August 2021 through a webinar. The international team of experts that have made this projection include Patrick Doohan, Matteo Pianella, David J. Haw, Giovanni Forchini, Peter C. Smith, and Katharina Hauck from the Imperial College Covid-19 Response Team, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, and School of Public Health, Imperial College London. The participants from Sri Lanka at this webinar included Dr. Palitha Abeykoon (Facilitator), Dr. Nihal Abeysinghe, Dr. Vinya Ariyaratne, Prof. Asita de Silva, Dr. Rajiva de Silva, Dr. LakKumar Fernando, Dr. Padma Gunaratne, Prof. Saroj Jayasinghe, Prof. Indika Karunathilake, Prof. Neelika Malavige, Prof. Kamini Mendis, Prof. Malik Peiris, Prof. Manuj Weerasinghe, Dr. Ananda Wijewickrama, Prof. Lalini Rajapaksa, and Prof. Athula Sumathipala. WHO Representatives included Dr. Alaka Singh (Chair), Dr. Paba Palihawadana, Dr. Olivia Nieveras, Dr. Sapumal Dhanapala, Dr. Padmal de Silva, Prof. Nalika Gunawardena, Dr. Virginie Mallawarachchi, T. Suveendran, Dr. Preshila Samaraweera, Dr. Mizaya Cader, Sadhani Rajapakse, Dr. Priyanga Senanayake, Dr. Roshan Sampath, Dr. Chatura Wijesundara, Dr. Anjalee De Silva, Dave Blackman, and Lahiri Jayasinghe. Following the conclusion of the webinar, several participants told The Morning, on condition of anonymity, that based on these projections, the Government cannot consider any other option but to continue the quarantine curfew or lockdown with more stringency. They added that any other option would prove to be utterly disastrous, both for the country and the Government, and that the economic impact will also be felt thereafter. Sri Lanka is currently experiencing a surge in the Covid-19 Delta (B.1.617.2) variant of Indian origin across the country, resulting in increased daily Covid-19 cases and deaths. The nation suffered 209 Covid-19-related deaths on 25 August, marking the first time daily Covid-19 deaths breached 200 since the start of the pandemic. Meanwhile, the death toll due to the pandemic in the country crossed the 8,000-mark yesterday (26) and now stands at 8,157.


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