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Politics of crisis management

12 Jun 2022

Today marks exactly one month since Sri Lanka set a world record by appointing the member with the least number of seats in Parliament as the country’s Prime Minister. One month on, the obvious question on people’s minds is, have things improved from a month ago, for them as opposed to those in power? The answer is a big fat no. Have things improved for the political leadership that a month ago had no alternative but to get into their respective bunkers to avoid the wrath of the people? The answer is a big fat yes. How is it then that the aggressive protest campaign that brought to its knees what was arguably the world’s most powerful government that boasted a two-thirds majority and was headed by the world’s most powerful president thanks to the 20th Amendment to the Constitution, now, just a month later, appears to be losing steam with the main goal yet to be accomplished? While fatigue is certainly a significant contributor to the toning down of the protests, one cannot discount the impact of the new Prime Minister, who in his inimitable style has managed to shift the goal posts, taking the wind off the sails. Even though people have more or less resigned themselves to the fate of enduring the burdens thrust on them by their Government, the Prime Minister’s doomsday predictions and apparent lack of initiative to mitigate those predictions have not helped his cause in any way. In fact, ordinary people wasting their lives day and night in ever-lengthening queues are beginning to question whether the PM has made any impact at all to ease their burdens. Some of the questions being asked are: has the economy improved – no; has the business environment improved – no; has the cost of living eased – no; has the law and order situation improved – no; has justice been meted out to those responsible for the crisis – no; and the list goes on. But yet, with nothing much to crow about on the achievement scorecard other than people slowly but surely becoming gluttons for punishment, the caravan drags on while the dogs bark by the wayside.  The anticipated resignation of the former Finance Minister from Parliament last week, followed swiftly by the nomination of an equally-controversial figure to fill the vacancy – all of which took place at lightning speed – has veritably set the cat among the pigeons. The person most threatened by the replacement appointee appears to be the PM himself, with the new MP most likely to end up as his rival at a future poll for the top job. Such a prospect has left the PM with no other option but to perform or perish. This coup de maître by probably the most resourceful political entity in this part of the world, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) which, like a rubber ball in the water, simply refuses to go down, will give it some much-needed breathing space. The SLPP has mastered the art of taking a step back when opportune to do so, only to take two forward when the time is right. It has immortalised in no unambiguous terms the words of that famed French writer, Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr, who in his infinite wisdom observed: “The more things change, the more they stay the same.”  This is why a supposedly new Government, referred to by some who have broken ranks with the Opposition as an interim all-party Government, continues to dish out the same stuff that its predecessor did with the same dismal outcome, but for some strange reason, people seem to be less vocal about their displeasure. For instance, the new Petroleum Minister, directly contradicting his Prime Minister on the very same day, insisted that the fuel supply would be restored to normalcy in 24 hours. Four days later nothing had changed. A month ago it would have led to anger, today it leads to mirth. And so, with nothing really changing for those controlling the levers of power, everything seems to be changing for the hapless people who now, for the first time in history, have been reduced to the status of having to actually beg for food. Notwithstanding the financial help that is being sought through the IMF, the Government has also appealed to the UN office in Sri Lanka for food assistance. In turn the UN is appealing to the world for $ 47 million to feed 1.7 million critically-affected people through its Humanitarian Needs and Priorities (HNP) programme over the next four months. Last week the UN Resident Coordinator in Sri Lanka Hanaa Singer-Hamdy appealed to the world on behalf of 22% of the country’s population that the UN had assessed as needing urgent food assistance. A country that for the longest time was famed globally as the ‘Granary of the East’ and even a few years ago had such a bumper crop of paddy that even a newly-built international airport had to be commissioned to store the excess crop has today been reduced to appeal for international help to fill the stomachs of an estimated four million plus people. There is no avoiding the fact that the rapidly-evolving food crisis is a national embarrassment and the clearest indictment yet on the abject failure of the present administration to fulfil even the most basic of its duties. At the root of the crisis is the failed agri policy of banning chemical fertiliser, as a result of which the paddy harvest in the last season is estimated to be down by 50%. Worse still, even though the ban was lifted some time back, no imports have taken place due to the forex crunch and if the process is not expedited even the next cultivation season will end up a flop. According to the UN, only one-fourth of paddy lands have been cultivated for the next Yala season and an acute food crisis is no longer mere speculation but actual reality notwithstanding Indian assistance for fertiliser imports. The $ 55 million loan approved by the Exim Bank of India for fertiliser imports last week will cover just a fraction of the requirement which is five times that. The result of the monumental policy failure has resulted in the country having to import not only fertiliser but rice as well – a hefty 800,000 MT of it – needless to say requiring a substantial chunk of precious forex. Ironically the chief reason for banning fertiliser, its purported adverse effects on health, is no longer of any consequence given the ‘import whatever is available or starve’ option that is before the country. Even though the President does not appear to be too perturbed by the looming food crisis, the Prime Minister who counts nearly 45 years in active politics as a Member of Parliament is well aware of the danger of a people going hungry. Therefore, it is good that a task force has been appointed by his office to mitigate what could easily develop into a highly-explosive and volatile social crisis as starving people will have little or no regard for the law. A breakdown in law and order driven by a food crisis is veritably the last straw that will break the camel’s back and the fact that the PM is well aware of that reality is somewhat comforting. The Prime Minister must be alive to the fact that like everything else, time too is in short supply and people are beginning to lose patience. As the saying goes, a hungry man is an angry man and the coming colours don’t appear to be too good. Therefore it is a well-calculated move on the part of the former Finance Minister to resign from his parliamentary seat and hope that it absolves him from the pain that will be inflicted on the people by the looming crisis. In his parting press conference, the former Minister was quick to disassociate himself from the economic calamity, passing the ball from the previous administration to the present and even faulting the people who elected the SLPP Government. This born again attitude is the surest sign that this step back will result in two steps forward in the not-too-distant future once blame for the crisis is pinned on the incumbent Finance Minister who, true to form, will once again be the deer caught in the headlights come election time. For his part, speaking in Parliament last week the PM likened the country to a broken-down computer which needed to be reset. What the PM failed to mention was that this particular computer was working fine until the last user crashed it. Even if the computer is reset, as he is supposedly attempting to do, chances are that the same individual who crashed it the last time will still be sitting at the keyboard. Therefore only time will tell if the attempted reset will have the desired effect. To add insult to injury, the former Finance Minister was quite candid when asked about the reason for his departure from Parliament. Without batting an eyelid, he said that he had just two goals and since those had been achieved, he saw no reason to hang around – the two goals being to “face the cases” filed against him (interestingly enough, being discharged in each of those cases on technical grounds, the last one being the Malwana mansion case that concluded last week) and secondly, to see his brother in office. However, it also appears that the impending 21st Amendment which seeks to prevent dual citizens from entering Parliament was also a factor that hastened the exit, but if his insistence of continuing in politics is anything to go by, then the days ahead could be quite interesting. The bottom line is that the most resilient political family in this country might be down, but is certainly not out. They are past masters in the triple R strategy of retreat, recover, return. Therefore, in the larger scheme of things, the pitiful state of the nation appears to be just collateral damage.  


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