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The curse in crunching the Covid-19 numbers

18 Feb 2022

Sri Lanka’s Covid-19 situation is reaching an alarming status, with over 1,200 new Covid-19 cases and approximately 30 Covid-19-related deaths being reported a day. Although Sri Lanka’s vaccination rate is still one of the highest in the region and the recovery rate too is at an optimum level, health experts fear that another wave is imminent. They also claim that the statistics we rely on are not accurate, and that the actual Covid-19 situation is much worse. These statistics may not be 100% accurate. However, the available statistics is what the people, the Government, and the health sector rely on, and how we obtain and analyse them is a vital part of Covid-19 management efforts, especially future steps. Therefore, they have to be as accurate as possible.  However, a circular issued by Director General of Health Services Dr. Asela Gunawardena has sparked a controversial situation regarding the Covid-19 statistics the Government and/or health authorities provide. The circular dated 15 February says that henceforth, it will not be mandatory to conduct post-mortem polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests for all deaths that occur in hospitals or at other places. After the issuance of the circular, various parties including those in the health sector alleged that the Government and/or health authorities are trying to hide the true number of Covid-19-related deaths, by blocking one of the main ways Sri Lanka receives information regarding such. The only exception would be a judicial medical officer’s (JMO) decision, and if a JMO decides that a PCR is needed, a PCR will be conducted. When we look at the availability of resources, this move can be viewed by some as an attempt to save resources. While a shortage of PCR and rapid antigen test (RAT) kits has been reported from many areas of the island during the past few weeks, health sector workers are also tied up with Covid-19 management, among other work. However, it goes without saying that lesser the number of post-mortem PCR tests, lesser the number of Covid-19-related deaths reported, and therefore, the motive behind this decision raising suspicion is understandable. Less Covid-19-related deaths being reported will certainly affect plans for Covid-19 management in the future. If we do not know the true magnitude of the challenges the pandemic is posing, not only will we be ill-equipped to face them, but we will also be less careful about our safety. As some health sector workers have alleged, there are also issues pertaining to handling deaths and dead bodies, because when there is no information about a deceased’s Covid-19 status, there is no requirement to adhere to Covid-19-related guidelines relating to funerals, and burials or cremations. Reducing tests to show less Covid-19 cases and related deaths is not a new allegation. Such allegations were first levelled in the first few months of the pandemic. However, the present situation is completely different, and in fact, worse, and now, despite vaccination and more knowledge about the pandemic’s nature, we also have to deal with more transmissible variants, people having got used to living with the pandemic to an extent that they do not care about the gravity of the situation, and an economy we have to continue despite the pandemic. Lockdowns and travel restrictions are a different, bigger issue. Less Covid-19-related deaths will clearly pave the way for the Government to rule out the possibility of lockdowns despite the number of Covid-19 cases.  When announcing decisions of this nature, the Government has an obligation to announce the rationale that led to such decisions because they affect an entire country’s present and foreseeable future. Although we cannot expect the Government to be truthful at all times, one of the main reasons that creates room for allegations, controversies, and conspiracy theories is because the Government does not clearly convey why they do what they do.  In fact, the Government should not make the mistake of thinking that the people are not ready for the truth. They have lived with the pandemic for almost two years, and have seen deaths, the loss of freedom, the loss of income, and hopelessness during the pandemic more than the members of the Government have. The truth is, despite the severity of the pandemic, Sri Lanka cannot impose lockdowns and travel restrictions like it did during the past two years because the country’s economy is hanging by a thread. By now, a majority of the people have understood this reality.  Therefore, what a responsible Government must do, especially if it cannot afford to impose lockdowns and travel restrictions, is not lie to the people to make them feel safer in an unsafe environment, but rather tell the people the truth about the pandemic and thereby prepare them to survive the pandemic. Political interests, especially those pertaining to elections, must not get in the way of protecting the people.


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