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The Ides of March

19 Mar 2022

The month of March in the Roman calendar has been associated with change spanning millennia, and 15 March was the day set apart by the ancient Romans as the Ides of March – a day of feasting commemorating a deity in the pre-Christian era and also the day on which to settle debts. It was only after the assassination of Roman Emperor Julius Caesar by his erstwhile comrade Marcus Junius Brutus et al on this particular day that it took on a whole new meaning. History records an interesting exchange between a soothsayer and Caesar early in the day on 15 March 44BC. The soothsayer had previously warned Caesar about impending danger but Caesar, who had lived to see the sunrise that day, had mocked the soothsayer on seeing him, saying, “The Ides of March have come” – only to be met with the ominous retort, “Aye, Caesar, but not gone.” Last week’s events in and around the presidential domain in Colombo have an eerie resemblance to the Ides of March in the sense that the Head of State has been put on notice that all is not well in the land while he chose to brush aside such concerns by taking the stance that none of the issues facing the country today were of his making. For the Christians at least, in the middle of the Lent season and clamouring for justice for the Easter attacks, it was a scene reminiscent of Pontius Pilate washing his hands off the decision to crucify Jesus Christ. That aside, the fact of the matter is that the Ides of March 2022 could potentially herald a sea change in the politics of this tiny island nation, which for the first time in its history is beginning to discuss political leadership and accountability in one and the same sentence. Up until now, decisions that politicians took – from the highest in the land to the lowest at the Local Government level – have by and large escaped diligent scrutiny in view of ‘majority consensus’. It finally seems to have crossed the public’s mind that a leadership elected by a majority may not necessarily have the interests of the majority at heart, but simply that of the party or other interests they represent, to the detriment of even those who put them in office. It is this realisation that is giving rise to a national debate on the subject of accountability, starting from the highest in the land owing to the current circumstances. It is this ingredient that has sadly been lacking in Sri Lanka’s political set-up and almost singularly responsible for the degeneration that has taken root in every sphere. Try as it might, there is no way that the administration can wash its hands off the issues confronting the nation. Realisation must dawn on the powers that be even at this late stage that the present problems can no longer be resolved with a dose of paracetamol, but what is required is bypass surgery. Cabinet ministers appearing at news conferences and making fools of themselves by proclaiming that these issues will be resolved by “tomorrow, next week, next month,” etc. are bound to find out the hard way that they have run out of takers for their theories. The crux of the matter is that people across all walks of life, save the elite ruling class, are suffering, and there is no solution in sight to ease this suffering other than begging for more of the loans that got us here in the first place. More worryingly, there appears to be no one willing to take ownership of the situation. The universal principle of the buck stopping at the top seems to be no longer valid in this part of the world. As a consequence Sri Lanka is heading into uncharted territory and therein lies the uncertainty ingrained in the common man’s face these days. With the public fast reaching breaking point and finding fault with the Opposition for not doing enough, it was a now-or-never scenario that resulted in the two biggest Opposition parties deciding to take to the streets and ending up by laying siege at the gates of the Presidential Secretariat last week. The massive protests, first by the main Opposition SJB, followed two days later by a JVP proxy, completed an eventful week where the Opposition upped the ante and the President, feeling the heat, desperately attempted to distance himself from the economic carnage in an address to the nation that did little to ease the palpable anger among ordinary folk being deprived of basics like food, medicine, fuel, gas, and electricity. With the Head of State distancing himself from the economic calamity and the nation limping from one loan to another just to keep afloat, Sri Lanka seems destined for a long-drawn-out struggle to simply stay afloat. Even though neighbour India has stepped in to fund essential imports via a $ 1 billion credit line for food and medicine and a separate $ 500 million credit line for fuel imports, both of which will only suffice for a limited period, what lies beyond is anybody’s guess. Besides, unlike before, India has clearly shed its benevolent outlook and focused on its struggling neighbour from a commercial perspective in return for what it doles out. As a result Big Brother seems to be up on the deal with generous chunks of real estate in prime locations being allocated to Prime Minister Modi’s chum, Gautam Adani, in exchange for the loans. Consequently Adani’s business tentacles will now extend to Mannar in the west, Sampur in the east, and Pooneryn in the north, creating an axis of geo-political influence in the Tamil heartland that could potentially have profound implications for the rest of the island in the mid- to long-term. Be that as it may, the Indian loans – which are ironically being touted as a victory for the administration – have to be paid within the next three years on top of the mountain of debt that is already due for payment at the rate of $ 6 billion per year for the next five years or so. What this means is that even in the event of regime change at some point, the incoming administration will have to start off deep under water in a sink-or-swim situation. Therefore the current economic strategy or the lack of it is only perpetuating the inevitable outcome of things getting much worse before they could get any better, whichever administration people elect in the future. If Sri Lanka is to extricate itself from the debt trap it is well and truly caught in, resolute political will is of the essence. A leadership split at the top can never provide that resolve and can only spell doom. Even though the President and Finance Minister have decided to seek IMF assistance, a key figure that should be part and parcel of such a process, the Governor of the Central Bank, who has consistently been anti-IMF, has steered clear of consenting to that decision, thereby raising eyebrows as to how far the administration can go in this particular endeavour, which, in the opinion of many, is the only option on the table with the Governor’s home-grown Road Map already in tatters. There is no arguing the fact that the haemorrhaging could have been mitigated if the IMF had been approached sooner. In that sense the Governor has a lot to answer for, with the latest victims of the crisis being schoolchildren who have been deprived of their term tests as the Education Ministry has run short of paper to conduct exams. The issue has spread to State utilities such as water and electricity, with the two entities no longer in a position to issue printed bills due to paper shortages. If that were not bad enough, reports have surfaced of even ambulances running short of fuel. Despite all these calamities, no one seems to be willing to accept blame or offer anything resembling a solution. Given the status quo, it is simply a matter of time before more people take to the streets, not only demanding solutions but also austerity from their leaders, who as usual have collectively failed to walk the talk of foregoing their luxury lifestyle. ‘Beware the Ides of March’ has new relevance in light of the current mood of the people.


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