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The switch to sustainable energy

21 Feb 2022

  • Experts discuss Sri Lanka’s long-term shift towards renewable power
By Sumudu Chamara Although the power sector remains one of the most challenged sectors at present, Sri Lanka is currently looking into a number of potential solutions and is in the process of implementing several long-term, national plans that may help bring to an end the prolonged crisis in the energy sector. However, these initiatives will require proper planning in accordance with national agendas, newer and efficient laws and problem-solving mechanisms, private sector and foreign investments, collaboration between relevant local authorities, and also understanding Sri Lanka’s capacities and requirements. This situation was discussed by several experts in the power sector who met last week for a discussion titled “Achieving Low Carbon Development Targets in the Power Sector” organised by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL). While Asian Development Bank (ADB) Energy Sector Group Chief Prof. Priyantha Wijayatunga, Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority Director General Sulakshana Jayawardana, Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) Additional General Manager Rohan Seneviratne, LTL Holdings Chief Executive Officer M.J.M.N. Marikkar, and energy sector expert Dr. Tilak Siyambalapitiya joined the discussion as panellists, CBSL Economic Research Department Director Dr. Anil Perera joined as the moderator. During the discussion, it was stressed that with growing economies, energy consumption has increased throughout the world most often resulting in unsustainable energy usage practices. Also, it was acknowledged that energy is the biggest contributor to climate change, and accounts for around 60% of total global greenhouse gas emissions. Power, energy targets and climate change Speaking on the energy sector and decarbonisation, Prof. Wijayatunga said that more than 130 countries including China have pledged to achieve net-zero emissions, and that India is also working towards it. “But these pledges are not adequate to reach carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to net-zero by 2050,” he claimed, adding that there is no chance of limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5°C by the end of the century, and that current trend is likely to lead to a 2.1°C rise by 2100 while some estimates say that it can be as high as 3.5°C. According to Prof. Wijayatunga, the path to net-zero emissions is narrow, and requires large-scale deployment of clean energy technologies including electric vehicles and energy efficient building retrofits.  He explained: “If we want to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, annual clean energy investment worldwide needs to be tripled by 2030 to around $ 4 trillion. Electric vehicle sales will jump from 5% today to 60% by 2030, and energy intensity in economics will improve by 4% annually. Global economy will be 40% larger in 2030; however, energy use will be 7% less than what we use now.” The benefits of low carbon growth, according to what Prof. Wijayatunga said, include, increase in clean energy investment bringing jobs, significant growth in global economic including local economies in rural areas, achieving universal access to electricity including encouraging decentralised energies from which rural and poor communities will benefit, and expansion of clean cooking by 2030. Speaking of the importance of innovation in clean energy, he said that most reductions in CO2 emissions through 2030 will come from technologies already commercially available, and that by 2050, almost half the reductions will come from the technologies currently under the demonstration/prototype phase. In this context, there is a need for innovation such as advanced batteries and hydrogen electrolysers, it was mentioned. It was also highlighted that major innovation efforts must take place within this decade in order to bring the said new technologies to market in time, and that research and development in that regard are critical. Prof. Wijayatunga elaborated that although a total of $ 90 billion public funds need to be mobilised for these efforts, only $ 25 billion is available as of today. When achieving the aforementioned goals, according to Prof. Wijayatunga, it has been estimated that around 30 million jobs will be created during this process, while about five million jobs will be lost. Explaining this situation as well as how the said transition will affect people in other ways, he emphasised that it is impossible to talk about energy transition without being just, and that the impact on people needs to be looked into. At the same time, it was noted that consumer choices lead to around 55% of the cumulative emission reductions, and these choices include purchasing electric vehicles, retrofitting houses with energy-efficient technologies, and behavioural changes such as replacing car trips with walking, cycling, or public transport. Prof. Wijayatunga also extensively discussed the changes that need to take place in electricity generation as it plays a key role across all sectors in the economy such as transport, industries, and households.  Noting that electricity generation needs to reach net-zero emissions globally by 2040, he pointed out the importance of huge increases in electricity system flexibility in terms of batteries, demand response, hydrogen based fuels, and hydropower, among other things. Adding that this is the time for low-emission industries, Prof. Wijayatunga said that by 2045, new energy technologies will take over the energy sector and that the vast majority of cars will run on electricity or fuel cells. In addition, according to him, planes will rely on advanced biofuels and synthetic fuels, and industrial plants will use carbon capture or hydrogen. With regard to achieving net-zero emissions, he said that complete transformation of the energy system and new thinking are necessary, and it is important to rely largely on renewable energies. Solar is currently the single largest source of supply and according to Prof. Wijayatunga the present situation requires strong focus from all stakeholders; that is why greater international co-operation, including supporting developing economies with financing and technologies, is important. The future of energy systems, Prof. Wijayatunga elaborated, consists of four main parts, namely decarbonisation (by expanding the use of clean energy), digitisation (by integrating information technology into the energy system), decentralisation (through distributed energy systems), and decreasing demand (by adopting energy efficient measures) Asia Pacific region  During his presentation, he underscored the importance of the Asia Pacific region as far as energy sector developments and climate change are considered, and noted that while the region is home to around 4.3 billion people, which constitutes around 60% of the global population, it is the most vulnerable region to climate change. Dependence on natural resources and agriculture sectors, densely populated coastal areas, weak institutions, and a significant level of poverty prevalent in the region are some of the risk factors.   With regard to the global situation, he noted that due to the rapidly growing energy consumption, CO2 emissions have also grown during the past few decades.  “When we look at the share of global CO2 emissions, we can see that in 1965, Asia contributed around 13% emissions, while the rest of the world contributed around 87%. However, by 2020, Asia’s contribution rose to 52%, while the contribution of the rest of the world decreased to 48%,” he said. From 1971 to 2020, in the Asia Pacific region, electricity generation has increased by 16.5 times, while it only increased five times globally. This, according to statistics, is almost 50% of the global supply, which amounts to about 13 trillion units. Energy policy principles Prof. Wijayatunga also described energy policy principles that more attention should be paid to in 2022. Among them are, supporting the efforts to bring affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy to everyone or eradicating extreme poverty and reduce social inequalities; providing support to tackle climate change, enhanced environmental sustainability, and building climate and disaster resilience; supporting institutional development, finance sustainability, good governance, and private sector participation, while also extending assistance to create policy frameworks needed to manage the energy transition; promoting regional energy co-operation and integration in order to strengthen energy security and increase cross-border access to cleaner energy sources; and combining finance, knowledge, partnerships, and its country-focused approach in order to deliver integrated solutions with comprehensive and magnified development impacts. These efforts will result in providing support for fossil fuel-based oil and gas only under very special circumstances, and support will be largely concentrated on decommissioning on currently operating fossil fuel-based plants, renewable energy and energy efficiency, transmission and distribution network development, increasing flexibility in power systems, innovative technologies and approaches for increasing access to energy, support for natural gas as a transitional fuel, and innovative business models and financing. He further explained what activities will not receive support as part of these initiatives. While upstream or midstream oil projects will not receive support, downstream oil will receive limited support. Coal mining, processing, storage, transportation, and any new coal-fired generation will also not receive support. National plans, policies for energy sector  Meanwhile, Jayawardana acknowledged that successive Sri Lankan Governments have paid attention to sustainability, climate issues, and energy-related targets including low-carbon targets, and that Sri Lanka’s targets have changed over the years. Adding that those plans involved, among other things, development of the renewable energy sector in order to achieve sustainability and energy security while ensuring low carbon electricity generation, he explained: “The national energy policy introduced in 2009 included a target to achieve 10% of renewable energy generation by 2015. However, later, it was changed to 20% of non-conventional renewable energy generation by 2020. There were several targets – some were achieved, some were not.” The present target, he noted, is fulfilling 70% of the electricity demand through renewable energy sources by 2030. He added: “To achieve it, it is important to work with various stakeholders, and taking into account the requirements, the CEB has prepared their long-term (power) generation expansion plan. We have focused on several strategies because this cannot be done solely with foreign and government investments, and requires private sector investments as well. One of the key stakeholders is the banking sector.” Jayawardana noted that in order to achieve the said targets, it is crucial to support mid and small-scale solar roof systems, and that one way of doing that is providing concessions for such projects.  CEB’s role and investments Meanwhile, explaining the CEB’s role in regards to the said targets, Seneviratne also noted that the 70% renewable energy target cannot be achieved by the CEB without external support. Other institutions that can help this endeavour, according to him, include the Sustainable Energy Authority, Power Ministry, Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL), Treasury, Land Ministry, entrepreneurs, and people. In addition, he said that establishing a secretariat to monitor these efforts and ensure inter-agency co-ordination would be beneficial. He noted that these plans should be implemented as public-private partnerships (PPPs), and that the total investment for power plants is $ 4,000 million. “To achieve this target, we have to improve the transmission and distribution network and it will cost around $ 1,800 million in the next nine years. In addition, battery storage and pump storage need to be improved, and they will cost around $ 1,500 million and $ 780 million, respectively, in the next nine years.” He said that the CEB’s main target is preparing least cost, long-term plans that suit the Government’s/national plans, and these plans focus on sustainability, energy security, and economic aspects of power generation. He described energy requirements necessary to achieve the above-mentioned target by 2030, noting: “From this year onwards (until 2030), we have to add 5,000 megawatts (MW) of renewable power to achieve this target. This includes 1,245 MW of wind power (current capacity is 248 MW), 3,204 MW of solar power (current capacity is 510 MW), 134 MW of biomass power, 150 MW of mini hydro plant-generated power, and 190 MW of major hydro plant-generated power. Each year, we have to add a total of 550 MW (to the national supply). Meanwhile, speaking of the private sector involvement, Marikkar emphasised that in the face of growing energy demands, the private energy sector now has a more important role than before, and that during the past five to 10 years, the private sector had made substantial investments in the renewable energy sector. Adding that the private sector has already invested $ 3 billion, he said: “The private sector needs bankable projects. In addition to financial benefits, these projects should ensure social recognition and opportunities such as entering new markets and expanding businesses for the private sector.” Challenges and changes According to Dr. Siyambalapitiya, as much as the said national targets will be beneficial in the long run, there are a number of practical issues and concerns that need to be taken into account. He stressed that local electricity consumption will increase and, therefore, the country has to prepare. He added: “When it comes to clean or renewable energy targets, we should define targets in terms of capacity. Sri Lanka has been using kilowatt hour (KWh) as our measure to indicate the share of renewable energy in the grid. As per 2020 reports, Sri Lanka was 37% renewable in electricity generation in terms of energy, but 48% renewable in terms of capacity for power generation.” Further, he explained: “There has to be a vigorous, more organised structure to get land and transmission lines-related matters. We are looking at a project that will be implemented over the next 10 years, which needs a very large amount of land and a very large number of transition lines.” He also noted that there needs to be attitudinal changes, stating: “I share the fact that everybody in the electricity industry should be equal partners. A customer who wants to get a solar power system connection should be treated fairly, and if it cannot be connected, they should be explained as to why it cannot be connected and what has to be done to upgrade the network. “In the same way, the CEB should not be pushed to purchase electricity at prices way above what it could afford. Keeping the CEB as a loss-making institution continuously for 11 years cannot contribute to the degree of confidence that we want to inculcate to get the private sector to invest in renewable energy.” While the targets the Government and the authorities have set in order to ensure sustainable, low-cost, and eco-friendly electricity generation in the next decade seem promising, the plan faces a number of challenges which require more partnerships. To attract the private sector, a great deal of awareness-raising activities as well as a certain assurance that the said initiatives will be financially beneficial, are necessary.  At the same time, as was stated during the discussion, the people’s role in electricity generation also needs to be identified and promoted, to encourage more people to come forward to support these endeavours, especially by contributing to generate solar power. 


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