Would it be a surprise to know that Sri Lanka was producing almost 100% of its electricity demand from hydropower until mid-1995, but the increased electricity demand driven by rapid economic growth and limited facilities to develop hydropower facilities made the country shift to fossil fuels gradually for a major portion of its demand since then? According to a report issued by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Sri Lanka’s energy sector last December, Sri Lanka was in fact self-sufficient for its electricity generation, especially in terms of hydropower alone. Nevertheless, with the increasing demand for electricity, hydropower’s contribution to the demand began to deplete, as easier and quicker ways of producing energy through fossil fuels such as petrol and coal were utilised for energy production. This was the case not only for Sri Lanka, but also for many other countries that went through significant developments in the past two to three decades, thereby mostly failing to produce the local energy demand through Renewable Energy (RE) sources as they used to do. However, the world is slowly shifting away from fossil fuels, the dominant form of energy that accounts for more than three-fourth the greenhouse gas emissions, globally. The new shift has been again towards RE sources that could decarbonise the energy system in the decades to come, making the environment greener. According to data, around 11% of the global primary energy was produced through renewable technologies in 2019 as capacity installations and investments into this sector continue to take place alongside rising awareness on climate change, caused by fossil fuels. In fact, investing in RE has become an economic opportunity, and this is evident by the fact that over $ 280 billion investments were made in the sector globally, last year. Being blessed with abundant resources to produce RE, Sri Lanka too has made some contribution towards this global shift over the past few years. The contribution is now set to be boosted under this Government as the President has instructed the relevant authorities mid-last month to undertake the necessary plans to generate 70% of the country’s electricity demand through RE sources by 2030. Amidst the renewed focus on the local RE sector, this week, The Sunday Morning Business is taking a look at Sri Lanka’s existing RE capacity installations, the hidden potential of this sector, and the future plans the Government has in place to achieve their vision by 2030. RE production: Where is Sri Lanka? Sri Lanka is an island destination popular among international travellers mainly for its tropical weather, due its geographical location close to the equator. According to the Department of Meteorology due to the location of Sri Lanka, within the tropics between 5° 55’ to 9° 51’ North latitude and between 79° 42’ to 81° 53’ East longitude, the climate of the island could be characterised as tropical. Moderated by oceanic winds, Sri Lanka has a year round hot, wet, and humid climate with two monsoon seasons, south western and north eastern. While this is a preferable climate for travellers, it is also the ideal climate to access a variety of RE sources easily. RE, which is often referred to as clean energy, is collected from sources that are naturally replenishing, such as solar, tidal, wind, water, biomass, and geothermal. Energy derived from moving water is hydropower, the conversion of energy from sunlight into electricity is solar power, electricity generated from wind is wind power, power produced from the fall and rise of tides in the ocean is tidal power, energy produced from animal or plant material is biomass power, and power derived from the conversion of heat to electricity is geothermal power. Even though Sri Lanka is already in the RE sector and is producing hydropower on a large scale, compared with other tropical countries, the current RE production of Sri Lanka, given its natural resources, is somewhat insignificant. Per capita consumption and production Sri Lanka’s per capita energy consumption in kilowatt per hour (kWh) is 636.3, one of the highest in the South Asian region. India’s per capita energy consumption is a little more than that of Sri Lanka, with 644 kWh. Pakistan, Nepal, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh are behind Sri Lanka with significant differences in per capita energy consumption. The country’s energy demand is being catered mostly by fossil fuels both, imported and indigenous non-fossil fuel. In terms of the indigenous non-fossil fuel energy sources, biomass power accounted for about 39% of the total energy production in 2015, while large hydropower accounted for 9% and new RE (solar, small hydropower, and wind) accounted for 3% of the total energy production. About 50% of Sri Lanka’s energy was generated through fossil fuel coal and petroleum with about 10% and 39% contribution, respectively, to the total energy production that year. It should be noted that coal and petroleum are imported fossil fuel resources and these imports weigh on the country’s import expenditure. On the other hand, per capita energy consumption is on the rise with improving living standards. Also, Sri Lanka’s public transport sector entirely depends on energy generated from fossil fuel. A target set by the respective Government in 2014 to generate 10% of the country’s electricity demand through RE sources was met. Nevertheless, along with the successful achievement of the target, the country’s fossil fuel energy production too was increased, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB). According to a research paper on “Renewable energy resources in South Asian countries” by the Energy Centre of Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology Bhopal in India, in terms of solar energy generation, Sri Lanka has the potential to produce 5 kWh of solar power per day. In terms of hydropower, the country has the potential to produce 2,000 MW, while the potential for wind power is 24,000 MW per day. Sri Lanka’s RE production in detail •Large-scale hydropower production In Sri Lanka, a country with stunning waterfalls and rivers, hydropower is undoubtedly one of the most developed RE methods of the nation. There are about 18 large-scale hydropower stations in Sri Lanka, which include the Victoria, Laxapana, Samanala, Wimalasurendra, Udawalawe, and Inginiyagala Dams. The Victoria Dam has the highest capacity, followed by the Kotmale and Randenigala Dams. In addition, there are a number of small and medium-scale hydropower plants as well. Few of them are situated in upper Huluganga Falls, Ranwala Oya, Moragaha Oya, Gomale Oya, Upper Magal Ganga, and Giddawa. The contribution from hydropower plants varies with rainfall during the two aforementioned monsoon seasons. During wet years, hydropower generation increases even beyond 40% of energy, but in dry years, oil-fired thermal power plants are heavily used to bridge the gap in hydropower generation. In terms of hydropower generation, according to the ADB, Sri Lanka has already developed almost all the economic potential for hydropower generation in large-scale power plants. Most of the major hydropower schemes are associated with Sri Lanka’s two main rivers, Mahaweli and Kelani, on which 1,370 MW of large hydropower plants and 20.5 MW of small hydropower plants have been developed by the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB). About 350 MW of small hydropower plants have been developed by private small power producers (SPPs), while 247 MW of committed power plants are in various stages of development by the CEB, the ADB in an assessment on Sri Lanka’s energy sector said. Approximately, 48% of the total existing CEB system capacity is installed in 17 hydropower stations and 32% of the total energy demand was met by the major hydropower plants in 2018. When hydropower generation becomes lower than average, the country uses diesel and fuel oil to augment power generation during peak periods and to bridge the generation gap when planned new power generation projects are delayed, according to the ADB. In its long-term generation expansion plan from 2020-2039, the CEB noted that further exploitation of hydro resources in Sri Lanka is becoming increasingly difficult owing to social and/or environmental impacts associated with large-scale development. •Solar power production Sri Lanka hardly passes a day with very little sunlight, thanks to its geographical location. This makes the country an ideal place to generate solar power. According to the CEB, solar resource maps of the country indicate the existence of higher solar resource potential in the northern half, eastern, and southern parts of the country. “Resource potential in other areas, including mountainous regions, is mainly characterised by climatic and geographical features. The exploitation of available resources requires the consideration of competing land uses and the availability of transmission and distribution infrastructure,” the CEB noted in its plan. According to the ADB report, the annual average Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) varies from 4.5 to 6.0 kilowatts per hour per metre square per day (kWh/m2/day) across the country. During the day, solar energy alone will be sufficient to meet the country’s demand. At the same time, during the day, there is likely to be significant curtailment of wind power if the energy generated is not stored. The total storage requirement is expected to be 15,000 MW. The technical resource potential for solar power generation is estimated to be 6,000 MW. Nevertheless, delays in policy enactments and technical constraints have hindered the early deployment of solar photovoltaics (PVs) in the country. Net-metred rooftop PVs were allowed since 2008, and since 2016, surplus energy sent out to the grid was paid. Rooftop solar PV systems became increasingly popular with the introduction of the net-metering system in 2010 and the Government-initiated “Battle for Solar Energy” programme in September 2016. Rooftop solar PV installations can significantly reduce the land use and environmental concerns, particularly in urban and suburban areas with the availability of rooftop spaces. According to the CEB, the first commercial solar power plants were commissioned in 2016. The ADB noted that by mid-2017 there were eight small-scale solar power plants with a total installed capacity of 51.36 MW. There were 93.7 MW of rooftop solar PV systems connected to the national grid by end-2017, and the total grid-connected solar PV capacity was targeted to reach 200 MW by 2020. Solar PV development in Sri Lanka has been gaining momentum with the decreasing technology costs and global trends in the improvement of solar PV technology. “The generation mix between wind and solar energy has been determined to be such that by 2050, solar energy is expected to contribute 30%, while wind energy will contribute 50% of the total demand,” the ADB report noted. The assumption is that a significant portion of domestic and commercial use will be powered by solar energy through an accelerated adoption of rooftop solar infrastructure. However, at the same time, a very high concentration of solar energy is likely to pose balancing issues for the grid and until storage facilities have evolved to become commercially viable, demand that cannot be met by solar will be primarily catered to through wind. Global energy experts suggest that Sri Lanka must consider the adoption of additional, advanced RE technologies such as geothermal, wave, tidal, and offshore wind as part of a 100% RE electricity generation scenario in the future. However, before any decisions on these technologies and their involvement in the 100% RE scenario are taken, there is a need to conduct detailed assessments to explore their feasibility and viability in Sri Lanka. The CEB’s long-term generation plan believes that the solar capacity in Sri Lanka will rapidly grow, more than wind, and its energy contribution will grow steadily over the planning period with the projected development. •Biomass power in Sri Lanka Biomass is mainly used for cooking, and it is also used for thermal energy requirements in the industrial sector. It consists of agricultural residue and yields from rubber replantation activities. According to the CEB, growing biomass as a fuel for dendro power generation gained attention in the recent past. Although biomass has the largest share of primary energy supply (39% contribution to the total energy requirement in 2015), it has very limited use for electricity generation. As of end-2017, there were 10 biomass-based small power producers with a total installed capacity of 26.1 MW. The Sri Lanka Renewable Energy Master Plan (REMP) estimates that the country has the potential for 2,400 MW of biomass-based generation capacity. •Wind power production The country has good wind energy resources that are concentrated in the north western coastal area and in the central highlands. Greater wind power potential is mainly available in the areas that are exposed to the southwest monsoon. Only a portion of the total available potential is economically exploitable due to various reasons such as competing land uses, accessibility, and environmentally sensitive concerns. Harnessing the exploitable wind power potential is subjected to various technical constraints such as power systems stability, power system operation, seasonality, and variability. In 2003, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) assisted Sri Lanka in developing its Wind Resource Map. The first commercial wind power plants were established in 2010 and the total capacity of wind power plants by end-2018 was 128 MW. By end-2017, Sri Lanka had a total installed generation capacity of 131 MW. The exploitable wind power potential is estimated to be 5,600 MW. The CEB has identified these exploitable wind resource potentials and prioritised their development activities together with the expansion of transmission infrastructure. In the next 20-year period, Mannar and the northern areas will be focused on wind power development on a large scale and the Puttlam, eastern, and central highland areas will contribute to small to medium-scale wind power resource development. The CEB is in the process of commissioning a 100 MW wind farm in Mannar. The wind farm is expected to generate approximately 337 gigawatts per hour (GWh) annually and this would be the first large-scale wind power project developed in Sri Lanka. During the first stage, 103.5 MW of wind power will be developed in the southern coast of Mannar Island. Under the long-term generation plan of the CEB, wind is expected to become the largest source of energy in the next 10 years. Hindrances to RE growth In an endeavour to embrace renewables more fully, Sri Lanka, while attending the 22nd Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Marrakech, Morocco, as part of the Climate Vulnerable Forum, pledged to use only RE for electricity generation by 2050. The ADB’s report estimates that total investments to the tune of $ 54-56 billion will be necessary in the power sector to achieve the 100% RE scenario. Furthermore, by 2050, the report estimates that the 100% RE scenario can potentially save Sri Lanka $ 18-19 billion by avoiding the use of imported fossil fuels. Nevertheless, as ADB noted, Sri Lanka does not have the domestic capability to fund large-scale RE projects from commercial banks. The country has to rely on multilateral support and on foreign banks with low-cost finance, to bolster RE growth. Further, Sri Lanka might have to face technical challenges in terms of inadequacy of ancillary systems to support the grid in a high RE scenario. High penetration of RE is likely to induce intraday variability in power supply and this variability needs to be addressed with a strong ancillary system. As of now, grid balancing is only done through hydro plants. For the replacement of thermal capacity by renewables to be successful, Pump Storage Power Plants (PSPPs) are going to be very important. The ADB highlighted that PSPPs will be essential to manage prominent peak and off-peak characteristics of the daily demand pattern. Without setting up the necessary ancillary infrastructure, achieving Sri Lanka’s ambitious RE targets will be difficult. In addition, the non-availability of proper incentives to develop RE-based capacity is a major obstacle towards achieving the desired RE targets. An integrated national energy policy formulation to support RE growth is the need of the hour. Moreover, Sri Lanka lacks local research and development to promote local capacity development; Sri Lanka has limited or negligible research facilities dedicated to the development of RE resources locally, thus creating an industry which is dependent on importing RE expertise and resources. According to the ADB, another major obstacle towards this goal is that as Sri Lanka’s electricity sector is largely dependent on hydro plants, any variability in the monsoon pattern hits the sector hard. Only after the requirements of domestic water consumption and irrigation are met, is permission for power generation from hydro projects granted. Although hydro plants’ Plant Load Factor (PLF) in Sri Lanka is in the range of 50%, there are concerns about the non-availability of capacity in the future. For any scenario incorporating RE in the electricity generation mix to succeed in the country, it is imperative that it address the challenges and deploys measures to mitigate them to the furthest extent possible. Government’s future plans During a virtual meeting held between Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India pledged to provide a $ 100 million line of credit to deepen co-operation in RE, with particular emphasis on solar projects. Along with the aforementioned plans to increase RE capacity, the Government of Sri Lanka is pursuing new power solutions for the Vavuniya General Hospital and about 20 other hospitals across the nation. The World Bank is assisting as part of a multi-sectoral pandemic response in Sri Lanka. In addition to these future plans of the Government, gradually addressing the above-listed obstacles identified by the ADB will possibly pave the way to generate 70% of the national electricity requirement through RE, as envisioned by the current Government, while also assisting Sri Lanka in fulfilling its pledge to the UNFCCC. Even though the initial steps of the RE plans might cost a colossal sum of money, becoming RE self-sufficient in terms of the national electricity demand will ease down the pressure on import expenditure, thereby narrowing the trade deficit and preserving the much-required foreign exchange reserves.